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Why Ford Will Be A Bit Player In The EV Market


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1 minute ago, rperez817 said:

The incumbent automakers who sell BEV know that too. But up until very recently, the non-Tesla BEV models have mostly regulatory compliance products (ZEV mandates and the like). The overall customer experience has almost been an afterthought.  

Fortunately, that's been changing. Most automakers now acknowledge that electrified vehicles are the future, and they're investing on the product design side of it. Eventually, they'll need to invest more in EV charging infrastructure also.

Yes sir, Norway set a record in March 2019. 58.4% EV market share among new car registrations that month. https://ofv.no/registreringsstatistikk

Tesla dominates EV market growth in both Norway and the U.S.

Again, though, they're only selling because of massive incentive packages to get them to sell.  Without those incentives, you'd see a vastly smaller take rate.

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37 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

They are, but they aren't going to be for another 10-15-20 years

 

Isn't that the future? I doubt it will take 20 years for EVs to gain overwhelming popularity if there are more car companies making them. I fully expect European adoption to be much faster.

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3 hours ago, Havelock said:

I guess you are unaware of the over 2000 fast charging stations in the US and Canada that are publicly available to people with non-Tesla EVs like the Ford Focus ev.  They don't stick out like Tesla charging stations since the are located at gas stations , hotels, shopping centers, and car dealerships.

Yes, but they are level 2 charging stations which charge around 25 miles per hour. Same as your home with a 240 volt charging source. Way to slow except for your home. The upgraded Tesla V3 superchargers can charge at 1,000 miles per hour or 75 miles in 5 minutes. The Ionity charger is faster but most of the European manufactured EVs are ready to be charged at high speed. - https://gadgets.ndtv.com/transportation/news/fastest-electric-car-chargers-are-waiting-for-batteries-to-catch-up-2019592

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3 hours ago, Deanh said:

Full EV I would agree with, but BEV, and PHEV I think they are in the game BIG time......more specifically, ahead of GM and Dodge/ Ram....and I would have to think there will be more of a market for vehicles that don't have range anxiety than for those that do....you could make a 500 mile EV, but in hot ( A/C ) or cold weather theres always that thought in the back of your mind that you do NOT have any form of limp home mode.

The jury is still out on that.  They have yet to give specs on the Aviator GT, but if it is the same as the Euro Explorer with a 13.1kWh battery then they are Not in the game BIG time.  BIG time means minimum 50 km range and adequate power to reasonably drive in EV only mode which would probably mean a minimum 150 hp in the electric motor(s) on an Aviator.

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56 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/

Norwegian EV incentives:

  • No purchase/import taxes (1990-)
  • Exemption from 25% VAT on purchase (2001-)
  • No annual road tax (1996-)
  • No charges on toll roads or ferries (1997- 2017).
  • Maximum 50% of the total amount on ferry fares for electric vehicles (2018-)
  • Maximum 50% of the total amount on toll roads (2019)
  • Free municipal parking (1999- 2017)
  • Parking fee for EVs was introduced locally with an upper limit of a maximum 50% of the full price (2018-)
  • Access to bus lanes (2005-).
  • New rules allow local authorities to limit the access to only include EVs that carry one or more passengers (2016)
  • 50 % reduced company car tax (2000-2018).
  • Company car tax reduction reduced to 40% (2018-)
  • Exemption from 25% VAT on leasing (2015)
  • Fiscal compensation for the scrapping of fossil vans when converting to a zero-emission van (2018)
  • Allowing holders of driver licence class B to drive electric vans class C1 (light lorries) up to 2450 kg (2019) 

Looks like great incentives.  We could probably cut our military budget by 1% and be able to do the same thing.  And maybe leave the Middle East since we will not need their oil , which would save us the 1% we just cut from the military budget.  Win, win.

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4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

Man, mlhm5 is like herpes-it goes away for awhile, then pops back up when you least expect it!

I also wonder if he's a troll for Tesla-they are getting beat up by the press as of late with gloom and doom and them finally reaching an oh shit point (as we've been speculating about for the past 24 plus months) and boom "he" poops up back here again after a very long absence 

The future is EV and Ford has partnered with several Euro car companies to bring really fast chargers online in Europe by the end of 2020 - 75 miles apart. So Ford is aware of the future of EVs, however, will get shut out in Europe because they will not have their first version of an EV until Fall of 2020 and according to Ford, it will be a performance-based SUV or crossover with a 300 mile range. Of course, this is all talk for now until someone does a review. Other than your garage, where will you charge this car? IMO, without a national rapid charging network, as being planned for Europe, it is just may be a teaser.

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1 hour ago, mlhm5 said:

 

Norway provides a window into what the not-too-distant future of EVs could look like; in June 2019, for the first time anywhere, more electric vehicles were registered than gas or diesel powered cars. Everyone has range anxiety, however, if there is no problem with finding a Supercharger every 100 miles or less (planned for Europe) then the move to EV could be a lot easier. MB firmly believes the future is EV. I am not saying Tesla will win, however,  if you are the only player whose owners do not have range anxiety it sure helps.

 

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

They are, but they aren't going to be for another 10-15-20 years

 

bingo...no where soon...the technology has to improve 10 fold...both from a battery and infrastructure standpoint...to the point where its as convenient as ICE vehicles...

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6 minutes ago, msm859 said:

Looks like great incentives.  We could probably cut our military budget by 1% and be able to do the same thing.  And maybe leave the Middle East since we will not need their oil , which would save us the 1% we just cut from the military budget.  Win, win.

If you want to encourage adoption this is the way, unlike the US where the federal government is reducing and some states have completely eliminated or never had any incentives for EVs. I do not think that the fossil fuel industry wants any competition.

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1 minute ago, Deanh said:

 

bingo...no where soon...the technology has to improve 10 fold...both from a battery and infrastructure standpoint...to the point where its as convenient as ICE vehicles...

IMO, you underestimate the drive of companies other than Ford especially European/China manufacturers to win the race to be the leader in EV. Today you can buy an EV with a 295-mile range, capable of charging at 1,000 miles per hour and is the safest car in America. Right now there are 400,000 fully electric buses in the world and 99% are not only in China but made there too.  I think the USA has less than 2000. We should be the world leader but are not for a number of non-financial reasons.

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25 minutes ago, mlhm5 said:

IMO, you underestimate the drive of companies other than Ford especially European/China manufacturers to win the race to be the leader in EV. Today you can buy an EV with a 295-mile range, capable of charging at 1,000 miles per hour and is the safest car in America. Right now there are 400,000 fully electric buses in the world and 99% are not only in China but made there too.  I think the USA has less than 2000. We should be the world leader but are not for a number of non-financial reasons.

nope...hard to over/ under estimate a company ( Tesla ) that has had ONE profitable quarter in 15...yes...15 quarters...doesn't matter how good/ or bad their product is....and PS...had a good friend involved in bringing Chinese Electric buses here...they couldn't get it to pass ANYTHING here....even some of the materials utilized were deemed harmful...because China doesn't give a crap...they would make cars out of asbestos if they could, witness tainted Pet Food, baby formula, lead in childrens toys etc etc. In So cal at least all the busses are LPG and CNG. Chinas issue is a combo of Coal/ population and general disregard for air/ water cleanliness, I wouldn't call them a leader of anything, rather than cutting corners..cant wait till some of their EV product makes it here to see how it actually fares in the US, not their own screw the rules culture they abide by

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9 minutes ago, snooter said:

Ford wants tesla's problems..so does everybody else....any other company wall street would have buried....but not tesla

wall street seems to be getting where everyone else has been....slowly but surely.... 

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1 hour ago, Deanh said:

wall street seems to be getting where everyone else has been....slowly but surely.... 

My premise remains the same - Ford will be a bit or non-player in the EV market.

Ford's CEO has not been straightforward about their future plans and even though not vocalized it is obvious Ford's future depends on the sale of gas guzzlers. Ford has a $50K pick-up, has exited the sedan mass market, cannot get beyond a concept EV car, and any cannibalization by an EV of their sales of ICE cars is OK because they are all money losers. Maybe paying lip service to EV plans that never come to fruition is a smart way to maintain good press relations and satisfy the loyal, however, 5 years from now the market value of Ford will depend on the price of oil. Even if Ford started now it would be six to eight years to come to market with anything somewhat comparable to what Tesla delivered in 2012 and this does not even address the nationwide supercharging network.

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1 hour ago, Deanh said:

nope...hard to over/ under estimate a company ( Tesla ) that has had ONE profitable quarter in 15...yes...15 quarters...doesn't matter how good/ or bad their product is....and PS...had a good friend involved in bringing Chinese Electric buses here...they couldn't get it to pass ANYTHING here....even some of the materials utilized were deemed harmful...because China doesn't give a crap...they would make cars out of asbestos if they could, witness tainted Pet Food, baby formula, lead in childrens toys etc etc. In So cal at least all the busses are LPG and CNG. Chinas issue is a combo of Coal/ population and general disregard for air/ water cleanliness, I wouldn't call them a leader of anything, rather than cutting corners..cant wait till some of their EV product makes it here to see how it actually fares in the US, not their own screw the rules culture they abide by

5 years from today, Ford will be a bit or non-player in the USA EV market because their EV strategy is to hype EV plans that never materialize. I don't know who will dominate, but when you eliminate range anxiety, you stand a better chance to sell your EVs than your competition.

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2 hours ago, Deanh said:

 

bingo...no where soon...the technology has to improve 10 fold...both from a battery and infrastructure standpoint...to the point where its as convenient as ICE vehicles...

Tesla has 10K superchargers WW, has promised to double the network by 2020 (we will see), and rolling out V3 which can charge your car at 1,000 miles per hour or 75 miles in 5 minutes. 

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2 hours ago, msm859 said:

The jury is still out on that.  They have yet to give specs on the Aviator GT, but if it is the same as the Euro Explorer with a 13.1kWh battery then they are Not in the game BIG time.  BIG time means minimum 50 km range and adequate power to reasonably drive in EV only mode which would probably mean a minimum 150 hp in the electric motor(s) on an Aviator.

Big time means no range anxiety.

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3 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

Yes, but they are level 2 charging stations which charge around 25 miles per hour. Same as your home with a 240 volt charging source. Way to slow except for your home. The upgraded Tesla V3 superchargers can charge at 1,000 miles per hour or 75 miles in 5 minutes. The Ionity charger is faster but most of the European manufactured EVs are ready to be charged at high speed. - https://gadgets.ndtv.com/transportation/news/fastest-electric-car-chargers-are-waiting-for-batteries-to-catch-up-2019592

You are confused.  The charge rate you state is for chargers like the SAE j1772.  There are over 19,000 public j1772 charging stations (50k chargers) in the USA and Canada.  I'm talking about SAE CCS chargers providing about 75 miles in 30 minutes.  People have no clue how much infrastructure is already built for EVs.

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1 hour ago, mlhm5 said:

5 years from today, Ford will be a bit or non-player in the USA EV market because their EV strategy is to hype EV plans that never materialize. I don't know who will dominate, but when you eliminate range anxiety, you stand a better chance to sell your EVs than your competition.

Don’t continue feeding the troll.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

Don’t continue feeding the troll.

Whatever he may or may not be he is not completly wrong...new crash reports have 3 boxes for "automation" which is driverless autos....granted different than BEV'S  but even the state is getting ready for auto driven motor vehiclss and the like....surprised me to see that....may be a safe bet ford is working on this behind the scenes which they need to be doing...there utter reluance on trucks should be a concern

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14 hours ago, rmc523 said:

https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/

Norwegian EV incentives:

  • No purchase/import taxes (1990-)
  • Exemption from 25% VAT on purchase (2001-)
  • No annual road tax (1996-)
  • No charges on toll roads or ferries (1997- 2017).
  • Maximum 50% of the total amount on ferry fares for electric vehicles (2018-)
  • Maximum 50% of the total amount on toll roads (2019)
  • Free municipal parking (1999- 2017)
  • Parking fee for EVs was introduced locally with an upper limit of a maximum 50% of the full price (2018-)
  • Access to bus lanes (2005-).
  • New rules allow local authorities to limit the access to only include EVs that carry one or more passengers (2016)
  • 50 % reduced company car tax (2000-2018).
  • Company car tax reduction reduced to 40% (2018-)
  • Exemption from 25% VAT on leasing (2015)
  • Fiscal compensation for the scrapping of fossil vans when converting to a zero-emission van (2018)
  • Allowing holders of driver licence class B to drive electric vans class C1 (light lorries) up to 2450 kg (2019) 

Those are some serious incentives, but obviously they will be going away. With electrics accounting for a majority of cars now sold in Norway, there will soon be a tipping point where revenues for all these fees and taxes crash. At that point, they will be reconfigured so that everyone starts paying them again. Or other taxes (that everyone pays) are enacted in their place.

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8 hours ago, snooter said:

Whatever he may or may not be he is not completly wrong...new crash reports have 3 boxes for "automation" which is driverless autos....granted different than BEV'S  but even the state is getting ready for auto driven motor vehiclss and the like....surprised me to see that....may be a safe bet ford is working on this behind the scenes which they need to be doing...there utter reluance on trucks should be a concern

He’s completely wrong in what I quoted and he’s only here to bash Ford with misinformation.

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22 minutes ago, akirby said:

He’s completely wrong in what I quoted and he’s only here to bash Ford with misinformation.

Like that is anything new from him....I still remember his pedantic bleating about Ford running out of cash and not surviving the "great recession"...yet here we are, still talking about Ford in the present tense, along with GM and Chrysler albeit the new versions of GM and FCA.

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17 hours ago, rmc523 said:

I agree and meant to put this in my last post too - I think it's crazy each company has their own charger design; until there's a universal charger, there can't be any sort of truly nationwide charging network/infrastructure.  It's not realistic to expect each brand to develop their own nationwide charging network to accommodate their specific plug type.  I suppose "neutral" parties like gas stations that install chargers could have changeable "nozzles" but that's also ridiculous.

On that subject, Brian Cooley at CNET did a pretty good explainer:

 

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17 hours ago, mlhm5 said:

MB says the future is EV. Having a PHEV with a 34 mile battery range, IMO is just stupid. Solve the range anxiety issue through a network of superchargers and people will buy EVs. 

That just plain does not work in the US !  I have a friend who has been driving a Prius since shortly after they first came out.  While her transportation needs are mostly home to work and back, less than 20 miles each way, there are days she has to travel all over the metro Detroit area.  It is going to be many years before enough "superchargers" are installed that she could pull up to one, plug in for an hour or two while in a meeting and then jumping back in and got 50 miles across town at highway speed with the A/C blasting.

Not in my of her lifetime !

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