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rmc523

Ford 2019 Q1 & March Sales Numbers

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https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North America/US/2019/04/04/1q-19-sales.pdf

Here's Ford's press release/Q1 numbers - Overall down 1.6% for the quarter - Ford down 2.1%, Lincoln up 11.2%

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And here's March 2019 numbers:

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I was able to figure out the discrepancies I was unsure of last month:

--PI-S and PI-U numbers are rolled in to Taurus and Explorer numbers on the monthly chart, while Ford breaks them out separately on their quarterly chart. 

--Heavy trucks I couldn't find monthly numbers for, but are reported quarterly in Ford's chart.  I will include these numbers in the third/last month of each quarter to accurately account for overall YOY total numbers - this will throw off the monthly tallies for heavy trucks (and I guess overall monthly volume will be off by a few hundred units too), but it's what I'm able to find!

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Nautilus and Expedition are the two great and good surprises among the passenger cars. Transit, F and E truck series are strong too. Even this year there will be Escape, Explorer, Aviator and Corsair on this chart

Edited by RadicalX

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Expedition has not been averaging 7,000 a month for a long time....

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13 hours ago, jcartwright99 said:

Can you imagine by the end of year, with the Aviator and Corsair in the Lincoln lineup.

What is interesting in those numbers for Lincoln is that this is the first month where year-over-year sales for the Navigator are down slightly (still up for the quarter) since the redesigned Navi first came out a bit over a year ago. I expect some of that may be folks who want a new luxury 3-row but want to wait to give the Aviator a look as well. It might also be continued supply constraints, except that would theoretically also apply to the Expedition, and it clearly doesn't with those great numbers on the Ford side. But overall, Aviator is going to be huge -- in Lincoln terms -- coming as a slot-in like the Ranger, not a redesign like the Explorer (which will itself do quite well I think).

MKC is still growing in sales even with the big redo/rename coming up later this year, though that's 6 months further down the road than Aviator, and Nautilus continues to revive well from the mild MKX sales slump last year in anticipation of the refresh/rename.

Edited by Gurgeh

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What it also shows was that the new Lincoln Grill is being received better in the market than the split wing that was on the MKX/MKC. Lincoln was right to apply it to the MKC even if it was for only one long model year. 

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Ford sales for the quarter down about 9,000 covering most of the  +29,000 drop in car sales, the transition continues, I just wish they would rethink Fusion going away, why not give it the 8-speed auto like Mondeo now has or even just use the Mondeo 5-door hatchback..

MKZ sales are still strong so I wonder if a future merge of it and Continental on one SWB/LWB vehicle would be a more effective plan than killing both.

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I have seen quite a few of the new style VW Jettas running around my area, so while sedan sales are not where they used to be, they certainly aren't dead.

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9 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

MKZ sales are still strong so I wonder if a future merge of it and Continental on one SWB/LWB vehicle would be a more effective plan than killing both.

A future Lincoln sedan would be interesting if they call the SWB version Zephyr (conventional four door sedan) and the LWB version Continental (coach door four door sedan)

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10 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Ford sales for the quarter down about 9,000 covering most of the  +29,000 drop in car sales, the transition continues, I just wish they would rethink Fusion going away, why not give it the 8-speed auto like Mondeo now has or even just use the Mondeo 5-door hatchback..

MKZ sales are still strong so I wonder if a future merge of it and Continental on one SWB/LWB vehicle would be a more effective plan than killing both.

I'm definitely with you on this.  I get the circumstances, but I still think it seems short sighted to just altogether drop sedans.  That said, I think we'll see "crossovers" that continually get lower and sleeker that are not that different from sedans.

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22 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

I'm definitely with you on this.  I get the circumstances, but I still think it seems short sighted to just altogether drop sedans.  That said, I think we'll see "crossovers" that continually get lower and sleeker that are not that different from sedans.

I still say that decision was based more on needing plant capacity for new models which is why Fusion stays around for another couple of years.  Without Ranger and Bronco taking over MAP we’d probably still have Focus.

What was stupid and shortsighted was how they announced it.

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29 minutes ago, akirby said:

I still say that decision was based more on needing plant capacity for new models which is why Fusion stays around for another couple of years.  Without Ranger and Bronco taking over MAP we’d probably still have Focus.

What was stupid and shortsighted was how they announced it.

...and, well, if you look at the new SUV/crossover Escape, it is styled like a sedan, it rides low like a sedan, it will probably drive like a sedan. What it lacks is that close back window with the ledge where you can place the bobble-head dog looking back (or line up a bunch of plush toys) and the trunk is taller and has glass around it. ;) 

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10 hours ago, jasonj80 said:

What it also shows was that the new Lincoln Grill is being received better in the market than the split wing that was on the MKX/MKC. Lincoln was right to apply it to the MKC even if it was for only one long model year. 

Agreed, I was personally not a big fan of the split wing. The new grills  have much better presence and premium look. 

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

I still say that decision was based more on needing plant capacity for new models which is why Fusion stays around for another couple of years.  Without Ranger and Bronco taking over MAP we’d probably still have Focus.

What was stupid and shortsighted was how they announced it.

What models is Ford planning to build at the Fusion plant? If I remember correctly,  Fusion sold upwards of 350,000 units annually at its peak popularity. None of the upcoming models I’ve heard of will sell in very large quantities. Seems like it will be harder to make reasonable returns running multiple models in one plant. The assertion you’ve made earlier that Focus will eventually return makes sense as it probably will be necessary to get the plant to capacity (or nearer capacity). JP’s suggest of retaining Fusion/MKZ makes sense - I think Ford could still sell 50 - 75K total  annually of theses two models for another five years or more if they would give them the new powerplants, reskin the exteriors and update the interiors. The cost to do this would be modest especially compared with developing entirely new models.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Trader 10 said:

What models is Ford planning to build at the Fusion plant? 

Maverick and the Maverick based truck I think.  And Escape/Corsair overflow if necessary.  

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11 minutes ago, akirby said:

Maverick and the Maverick based truck I think.  And Escape/Corsair overflow if necessary.  

I would think Ford would be ecstatic if the truck and Maverick sales total 150K. That leaves half or more of plant capacity unused. 

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On 4/5/2019 at 5:38 PM, akirby said:

Maverick and the Maverick based truck I think.  And Escape/Corsair overflow if necessary.  

And Transit Connect, which I expect sales to increase dramatically once Ford is able to offer more build variations and eliminate the long supply chain from Spain.

Edited by bzcat

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What's obviously the most important take from this is that the Flex is still humming along, and deserves a worthy successor.

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2 minutes ago, ZanatWork said:

What's obviously the most important take from this is that the Flex is still humming along, and deserves a worthy successor.

I love our Flex. It’s such a better car than my Edge.  I was thinking the other day how much I’d love to get another one to replace it, but I’ve never been much of a fan of the current grille, and I’d have a hard time buying a vehicle that’s been mostly unchanged for a decade. Personally I think there should be a three row Edge to replace the D4 Explorer as the CD6 Explorer seems more in the Flex space. 

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On 4/5/2019 at 8:38 PM, akirby said:

Maverick and the Maverick based truck I think.  And Escape/Corsair overflow if necessary.  

 

15 hours ago, bzcat said:

And Transit Connect, which I expect sales to increase dramatically once Ford is able to offer more build variations and eliminate the long supply chain from Spain.

 

On 4/5/2019 at 8:57 PM, Trader 10 said:

I would think Ford would be ecstatic if the truck and Maverick sales total 150K. That leaves half or more of plant capacity unused. 

 

The Maverick is going to be built with the Mach E or whatever they are calling it-the timing of everything points that the Maverick will be built at Cuautitlán Assembly and not Hermosillo. The Fiesta goes out of production at  Cuautitlán next month-the Mach E or whatever they are calling it will be most likely in production by year end and the Maverick is supposed to come out 3-4 months before the BOF Bronco, which is supposed to start End of next year-so figure a late Spring/Summer Job1. I don't see the Mach E selling more then 100K units a year, if that.

The Fusion/MKZ go out of production Spring/Summer 2020, Which would lead to the Transit Connect and C-Class Pickup going into production late 2020. 

The other wild card is are we going to get the Puma in North America? If so, where is it coming from?

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53 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

The other wild card is are we going to get the Puma in North America? If so, where is it coming from?

Cuautitlán would seem like the likely candidate....export to North America at expected levels and easily export to Central and South America with little to no trade barriers.

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11 minutes ago, twintornados said:

Cuautitlán would seem like the likely candidate....export to North America at expected levels and easily export to Central and South America with little to no trade barriers.

But you already have the Maverick (going by its timetable next year) and the Mach E coming from there. Not sure if they would be able to run 3rd product or not down the line that is considerably different then the other two-then again...the Mach E might be quite different then any other C class product too. 

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16 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

The Maverick is going to be built with the Mach E or whatever they are calling it-the timing of everything points that the Maverick will be built at Cuautitlán Assembly and not Hermosillo. The Fiesta goes out of production at  Cuautitlán next month-the Mach E or whatever they are calling it will be most likely in production by year end and the Maverick is supposed to come out 3-4 months before the BOF Bronco, which is supposed to start End of next year-so figure a late Spring/Summer Job1. I don't see the Mach E selling more then 100K units a year, if that.

The Fusion/MKZ go out of production Spring/Summer 2020, Which would lead to the Transit Connect and C-Class Pickup going into production late 2020. 

The other wild card is are we going to get the Puma in North America? If so, where is it coming from?

Fiesta Balance Out is 08/01/2019. And Ford's telling dealers that the Fusion will be available through the 2020MY.

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1 hour ago, ice-capades said:

Fiesta Balance Out is 08/01/2019. And Ford's telling dealers that the Fusion will be available through the 2020MY.

Mondeo is getting a refresh that includes the new 8-speed auto, I wonder if importing it could  be a future option....

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5 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Mondeo is getting a refresh that includes the new 8-speed auto, I wonder if importing it could  be a future option....

Always an option but the question is how many they could sell at a good profit margin?

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