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Toyota Has a Curious Justification for Not Selling Any EVs (Yet)


silvrsvt

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6 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a26734482/toyota-why-not-selling-electric-cars/

 

So they aren't getting raked over the coals by the press for this....hmmmm

 

Of course they are. Bob Carter's statements have been rightfully criticized by several publications. Hopefully Carter isn't speaking for Toyota globally, as it makes no sense.

Here's an editorial from Electrek. https://electrek.co/2019/01/07/toyota-tesla-lead-shuns-all-electric-electrified-2025/

"This is so dumb to me. I don’t understand this whole “waiting for the market to mature” thing.

They are waiting for the demand for all-electric vehicles to increase, but that’s not how it works.

The demand for EVs is there already. You just need the right all-electric vehicles to capitalize on it.

If the EV market is small right now, it’s not because people don’t want to buy EVs, it’s because the industry is not manufacturing enough attractive all-electric vehicles at a decent price.

Once they have more interesting all-electric options, which are coming to market pretty fast, things will change a lot faster than what Toyota is anticipating.

4 to 6 percent of the market between 2025 and 2030 is absolutely ridiculous.

Funny enough, Carter misspoke when talking about upcoming all-electric news from Toyota. He said it will come in “the early 1920s” when he meant it will come in 2019 and 2020.

Toyota might as well be stuck in the 1920s with that kind of vision for all-electric vehicles."

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13 hours ago, mackinaw said:

Toyota has been pushing fuel cell EV's over battery EV's.  The Mirai uses a hydrogen fuel cell.  Maybe a better idea than a BEV, at cold temperatures, a fuel cell EV doesn't lose battery capacity like a BEV.  

Lots of car manufacturers have had a better idea, but sometimes the market doesn’t accept it. Hydrogen has the same issues as electric-lack of refueling stations. More manufacturers are embracing electrics, so there will be more investment in charging stations vs hydrogen refill stations. 

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EV has existing infrastructural. Every building has electricity outlet. Even the most remote parts of the US is wired for electricity.

The issue with hydrogen is not even infrastructure. It is basic chemistry... If you want clean hydrogen (i.e. without carbon), you need to make it from water (H2O). However, it takes more energy to separate H and H from O (basically electrolysis on a massive scale) than what's left after the process so it is a net negative use of energy. So hydrogen from water (the holy grail) is not currently viable unless we have a vast source of carbon free electricity (i.e. nuclear fusion).

The only economically feasible way to produce hydrogen now and for the foreseeable future is from fossil fuels... basically converting natural gas (primarily methane or CH4) to hydrogen. The problem with this is again, the net reduction in energy density in the process and the carbon it creates. Essentially, we are much better off just burning the natural gas than converting it hydrogen and natural gas infrastructure already exists in most US populated area. And because you are still using fossil fuel, it is not a sustainable long term solution.

Hydrogen fuel cell EV has a role in the transportation network of the future but it won't be in privately owned vehicles like Toyota Mirai. Battery EV is much smarter choice since charging infrastructure already exist in the form of the electric grid. And we can produce electricity from carbon neutral source (e.g. solar, wind, hydro, nuclear fission etc.)

 

 

Edited by bzcat
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There's big questions whether or not the power grid can handle the massive load of charging electric cars on that large of a scale. There's areas around me, one of the larger metropolitan areas in the country, where a light breeze (or sometimes no reason at all) will knock power out for 6+ hours. Our infrastructure is a joke. 

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It's a question of upgrades not whether the infrastructure exists or not. Also peak demand may or may not go up with mass adopting of electric cars. There are lots of modeling out there that show different outcomes. EV tends to charge at night when other electricity demands are low.

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The other issue is will we have charging rates down to acceptable levels (under 15 minutes for 80% or better recharge) in the next 10 years-plus your not going to get major market penetration unless your product is under $45k or so-which brings up how much profit can automakers make off them too. 

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20 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

There's big questions whether or not the power grid can handle the massive load of charging electric cars on that large of a scale. There's areas around me, one of the larger metropolitan areas in the country, where a light breeze (or sometimes no reason at all) will knock power out for 6+ hours. Our infrastructure is a joke. 

I've brought this up before, it's just not viable today.

However, by the time that BEVs become maintstream, it may be more viable.  Utility companies are expecting it, and are making investments now to ready themselves for the future.  More of a problem, I see, is that coal is going to be going away, so energy is going to need to come from other sources.  The benefit to this, though, is that the "power plants" can be scattered a bit more to produce the power closer to where it is used, helping many parts of the grid.

I work for an energy company (they don't want us to say 'power' or 'utility' anymore) and we are making major investments in infrastructure, wind, and solar energy products.  We are also working to add charging stations along major highways through the state to support BEVs.  Changes will come, but it takes a LOOOOOONG time for that to happen.  I'm thinking the 2030-40 timeframe will be where we see major inroads from BEVs.

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1 hour ago, fordmantpw said:

I work for an energy company (they don't want us to say 'power' or 'utility' anymore) and we are making major investments in infrastructure, wind, and solar energy products.  We are also working to add charging stations along major highways through the state to support BEVs.  Changes will come, but it takes a LOOOOOONG time for that to happen.  I'm thinking the 2030-40 timeframe will be where we see major inroads from BEVs.

Thank you fordmantpw sir for sharing some of the projects your employer is working on. Very good to hear.

In North Texas, Oncor Electric Delivery (now owned by Sempra Energy) has similar initiatives underway. In terms of BEV and electric grid, Oncor says that individually owned BEV cars and light trucks aren't a problem with the current infrastructure. But they say supporting large fleets of commercial BEVs like vans and Class 6 to 8 trucks will require major investment from energy companies to make sure the electric grid can handle the load. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/how-oncor-is-preparing-for-a-wave-of-large-electric-fleet-vehicles/549109/

"Oncor, which serves more than 10 million people in and around Dallas, Texas, is preparing for that shift to begin soon. The utility expects large EVs could be cost competitive with traditional gas-fueled options in the early to mid 2020s, Treichler told Utility Dive after the event. Amazon, for instance, bought 100 EV vans from Mercedes for its German operations last year, and this month invested $700 million in the EV startup Rivian.

Already, Treichler said, Oncor is getting inquiries about vehicle charging from its commercial customers.

"The things around trucks are starting to happen," Treichler told the conference audience. "One of the things that brought this whole issue to our attention was about six or eight weeks ago, we got an inquiry from a company that wants to build a logistics center just outside of Dallas."

At the outset, Oncor expects most large electric vehicles will operate during the day and come back to a central depot to charge at night, creating big pockets of electricity demand that were not there before. For the logistics company, Oncor calculated that charging all of its 325 fleet vehicles would add 40 MW to the customer's power demand — a huge increase over the 0.5 MW load the utility typically sees from a commercial ratepayer.

And that's just one company of many, Treichler stressed.

"What do you see when you fly into Dallas? A sea of warehouses as far as you can see," he said. "Every one of them has a fleet."

Edited by rperez817
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