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justins

GM to exit Oz, hand sales to distributor..?

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https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-news/holden-owner-general-motors-to-leave-australia

 

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The future of Holden could rest with Inchcape Australia, importer of Subaru, Peugeot and Citroen vehicles, which is reportedly in talks with General Motors to take over the sales, marketing and distribution of Holden-badged vehicles in this country.

I'm trying to find the "media article" mentioned in the article. 

Edited by justins

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https://www.afr.com/street-talk/uk-strategic-testdrives-options-for-gms-holden-20190206-h1awoy

 

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Inchcape is believed to be keen to see whether GM could be tempted to pull up stumps in Australia altogether, as part of the restructuring activities worldwide. It is understood bilateral discussions have progressed slowly and there are extreme sensitivities on both sides of the negotiating table.

 

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Sounds like it is just a proposal from a distributor. But it makes a lot of sense given how few cars GM is selling in Australia. It trails far behind Toyota, Hyundai, Mazda and just got outsold by Ford last year for the first time in 15 years.

The ranking below is by brand which somewhat mask the true position of GM. By manufacturer, VW (VW+Audi+Skoda+Porsche) outsold both Ford and GM by a wide margin and is #4 in Australia. And obvious Kia and Hyundai combined is a solid #2.

2018 Australia Passenger Vehicle Sales

1. Toyota 217,061
2. Mazda 111,280
3. Hyundai 94,187
4. Mitsubishi 84,944
5. Ford 69,081
6. Holden 60,751
7. Kia 58,815
8. Nissan 57,699
9. Volkswagen 56,620
10. Honda 51,525
11. Subaru 50,015
12. Mercedes-Benz 39,537
13. Isuzu 27,640
14. BMW 23,055
15. Audi 19,416
16. Suzuki 17,601
17. Land Rover 10,089
18. Renault 10,018
19. Lexus 8819
20. Jeep 7326
21. Volvo 6693
22. LDV (Maxus) 6064
23. Skoda 5807
24. Porsche 3909
25. Mini 3590

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IMO Under current leadership I don't see GM sticking by Holden for long. It might be a deal to get new, low-end models from other carmakers while GM supplies the top models. Or GM will sell it the new company and walk from Australia and concentrate on NA and China.

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GM really looks like they are trying get the profit numbers really high and get top dollar for the company when they sell it

GM will probably be bought in the next 3 years.

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It wouldn't surprise me if a company like Geely would buy Holden from GM outright and GM then walks away from the Aussie market altogether...Geely would then sell the new Holdens through the existing distribution network...

Edited by twintornados

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On 2/7/2019 at 6:26 PM, Fgts said:

IMO Under current leadership I don't see GM sticking by Holden for long. It might be a deal to get new, low-end models from other carmakers while GM supplies the top models. Or GM will sell it the new company and walk from Australia and concentrate on NA and China.

There is nothing for GM to sell to another company. Holden is just the marketing name for GM in Australia. It already sells rebadged models from elsewhere. Shut down is much more likely outcome.

The issue is the GM still has a huge corporate structure in Australia from when it had 40% of the market and 3 manufacturing plants. When you are selling only 60k cars a year, you can do it with a much smaller organization. Hence the proposal from this other company to take over distribution.

Ford Australia is in kind of the same boat but maybe better positioned. Having eliminated manufacturing earlier than GM, and having already been a distant 4th or 5th in the market for so long, I think Ford Australia is already downsized. Ford also kept the APAC design and engineering center in Australia at the expense of the one in Taiwan which shut down to save the Australia one a few years ago. GM from what I can gather, has no such plan to keep any design or engineering resources in Australia since it has much deeper bench and more robust operations in Korea. Basically, GM Australia is like Ford Taiwan... the weaker of the two surviving APAC children outside China, which is its own thing. So Ford logically de-invested in Taiwan to shore up Australia. GM will eventually do the same, except with Australia being the weaker one.

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2 hours ago, bzcat said:

There is nothing for GM to sell to another company. Holden is just the marketing name for GM in Australia. It already sells rebadged models from elsewhere. Shut down is much more likely outcome.

The issue is the GM still has a huge corporate structure in Australia from when it had 40% of the market and 3 manufacturing plants. When you are selling only 60k cars a year, you can do it with a much smaller organization. Hence the proposal from this other company to take over distribution.

Ford Australia is in kind of the same boat but maybe better positioned. Having eliminated manufacturing earlier than GM, and having already been a distant 4th or 5th in the market for so long, I think Ford Australia is already downsized. Ford also kept the APAC design and engineering center in Australia at the expense of the one in Taiwan which shut down to save the Australia one a few years ago. GM from what I can gather, has no such plan to keep any design or engineering resources in Australia since it has much deeper bench and more robust operations in Korea. Basically, GM Australia is like Ford Taiwan... the weaker of the two surviving APAC children outside China, which is its own thing. So Ford logically de-invested in Taiwan to shore up Australia. GM will eventually do the same, except with Australia being the weaker one.

In 2009, During the bankruptcy, GM was trying to sell the Saturn dealer network and the right to use the Saturn name to other manufacturers, but it fell through when Penske failed to secure a deal with Renault Samsung to import cars they built to the USA to be sold as Saturns after GM stopped making them.

They could do the same with Holden and allow someone not in the Aussie market to enter the market selling their cars as Holden branded cars. But I think if they took this route, history would repeat itself and the brand would probably disappear like Saturn.

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7 hours ago, bzcat said:

There is nothing for GM to sell to another company. Holden is just the marketing name for GM in Australia. It already sells rebadged models from elsewhere. Shut down is much more likely outcome.

The issue is the GM still has a huge corporate structure in Australia from when it had 40% of the market and 3 manufacturing plants. When you are selling only 60k cars a year, you can do it with a much smaller organization. Hence the proposal from this other company to take over distribution.

Ford Australia is in kind of the same boat but maybe better positioned. Having eliminated manufacturing earlier than GM, and having already been a distant 4th or 5th in the market for so long, I think Ford Australia is already downsized. Ford also kept the APAC design and engineering center in Australia at the expense of the one in Taiwan which shut down to save the Australia one a few years ago. GM from what I can gather, has no such plan to keep any design or engineering resources in Australia since it has much deeper bench and more robust operations in Korea. Basically, GM Australia is like Ford Taiwan... the weaker of the two surviving APAC children outside China, which is its own thing. So Ford logically de-invested in Taiwan to shore up Australia. GM will eventually do the same, except with Australia being the weaker one.

 The difference between Ford Aust and Holden is this, around 75% of FoA's sales are 4x4 Ranger, Mustang, Everest all with ATP well over 50K. Last year Holden found itself with a ton of inventory that was not selling so it stopped shipments of volume products, spent around 10 months of heavily discounted sales to work down a stockpile and still sold less that Ford. GM fans claim that Ford is in just as precarious position as Holden because sales rerly so much on Ranger and high priced Mustang and Everest. I contend that selling the ass out of discounted stock does not give Holden any confidence going forward, all they've done is kill resale value of all products for the next three years.

And if Ford Aust had engaged in the same amount of discounting as Holden, its sales would have been through the roof....

Edited by jpd80

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Right, Ford had already pivoted away from Falcon and sedans even before manufacturing ended with Territory and Ranger being the primary sellers with decent profit margin. It's just unfortunate that it couldn't replace the Territory right away.

Holden had a lot full of various rebadged cars and of course they had all those Commodores to offload because they had to keep the factory open. They are way behind Ford Australia in righting the product mix.

Honestly, the first one to figure out how to sell LHD fullsize pickup trucks in Australia with reasonable pricing it going to clean up... it's just such a small market that no one even bothers.

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6 hours ago, bzcat said:

Honestly, the first one to figure out how to sell LHD fullsize pickup trucks in Australia with reasonable pricing it going to clean up... it's just such a small market that no one even bothers.

2

Ford did a few years back (for a few years until 2007) when they sold Brazilian (I think) spec F250s and F350s here. Then they stopped. Lord knows why. 

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The problem with Ford in Oz is their rubbish marketing and poor dealer satisfaction survey results... Focus transmission problems from a couple of years ago are still hurting as well, I'd imagine. 

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4 hours ago, justins said:

Ford did a few years back (for a few years until 2007) when they sold Brazilian (I think) spec F250s and F350s here. Then they stopped. Lord knows why. 

Plant stopped making RHDs.

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4 hours ago, justins said:

The problem with Ford in Oz is their rubbish marketing and poor dealer satisfaction survey results... Focus transmission problems from a couple of years ago are still hurting as well, I'd imagine. 

Outside of Ranger and Mustang and maybe Everest, the products just don't catch buyers eyes, they're either too old or just too expensive compared to the newer fresher competition. They've given up on Fiesta, Ecosport is just poo a 1.0 EB is useless in our market, Escape too old and new Focus starts at $27K drive away with a turd EB I-3 that screams third world, i mean WTF????

Endura starts at $49K but you can get a genuine 3-row, Acadia, CX9 or Toyota Kluger (Highlander) for less money.

 

Edited by jpd80

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