silvrsvt Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 https://www.inverse.com/article/52625-electric-cars-will-beat-older-cars-on-cost-surprisingly-soon-analysis-says Electric cars could overtake gas-powered cars on cost in less than a decade’s time, an analysis published Monday reveals. Deloitte claims that the upfront purchase price of a battery-powered vehicle is among the largest stumbling blocks to adoption, but the analysis found that the cost of owning one of these cars could match their traditional counterparts globally by 2022. Morgan Stanley predicts traditional cars will become unprofitable by 2028, paving the way for electric car sales to overtake by 2038. Anyone else getting this feeling that the electric car thing is getting oversold by investors and anaylists? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 With government subsidies maybe but that doesn't address range or charging time/infrastructure. I still say plug in hybrids will be much more successful over the next 10 years as BEVs slowly ramp up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, akirby said: I still say plug in hybrids will be much more successful over the next 10 years as BEVs slowly ramp up. Right, plus given the costs of buying a new vehicle, its not like people are replacing a car/cuv/suv every 5 years...they keep them roughly 10 years or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Also note half those sales are in China and they include plug in hybrids and limited range BEVs. I believe plug in hybrids will be very successful but I don't consider a limited range BEV (< 200 miles) to be a viable alternative to a traditional vehicle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Regular cars are just going to *poof* become unprofitable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 47 minutes ago, rmc523 said: Regular cars are just going to *poof* become unprofitable? well if they keep shrinking in marketshare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 And then we have the VW CEO saying that EV's will be too expensive for many entry-level buyers. https://qz.com/1528921/vws-chairman-says-even-small-electric-cars-arent-going-to-be-cheap/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, mackinaw said: And then we have the VW CEO saying that EV's will be too expensive for many entry-level buyers. https://qz.com/1528921/vws-chairman-says-even-small-electric-cars-arent-going-to-be-cheap/ Entry-level buyers are better served by used cars anyway. In the U.S., used BEV models like Ford Focus Electric, Fiat 500 EV, Mitsubishi i-MiEV that are "compliance" cars, have ridiculous depreciation. It's not hard to find 3 year old versions of those BEV models with less than 30k miles for $12,000 or less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 54 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Entry-level buyers are better served by used cars anyway. In the U.S., used BEV models like Ford Focus Electric, Fiat 500 EV, Mitsubishi i-MiEV that are "compliance" cars, have ridiculous depreciation. It's not hard to find 3 year old versions of those BEV models with less than 30k miles for $12,000 or less. That makes no sense-why would a "poor" person want to buy a car that can't even come close doing the same things as ICE vehicle...thats part of ther reason why they have shitty resale vaule. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Quote Deloitte claims that the upfront purchase price of a battery-powered vehicle is among the largest stumbling blocks to adoption, but the analysis found that the cost of owning one of these cars could match their traditional counterparts globally by 2022. Well DUH, but the stumbling block is still making folks pay up front for all the savings on fuel they'll make over the next three to four years. I don't buy it, this is someone using math to justify paying more now with zero cost benefit over the normal finance period of vehicles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-150 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 hours ago, jpd80 said: Well DUH, but the stumbling block is still making folks pay up front for all the savings on fuel they'll make over the next three to four years. Diesel engines say you're full of shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 32 minutes ago, J-150 said: Diesel engines say you're full of shit. maybe...if they are still around.....zero sign of the 1.5 diesel transit Connect yet...Mazda walked away, Honda walked away, VW is walking away ( and thus Audi, Porsche ) Mercedes have said they are done...BMW?....IMO youll soon only see Diesels in higher GVW vehicles and commercial applications...but if a hybrid version of the same vehicle comes out I would say its game on , and I can see diesel going away completely... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 People buy diesels because they’re diesels or for towing, not for MPG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, akirby said: People buy diesels because they’re diesels or for towing, not for MPG. Im sure all the VW owners that had their Golfs and Jettas bought back may object to that, they were loyal until their high pressure fuel pump cost them 6k to replace.......lol... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-150 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Fact remains, there have been millions of passenger vehicles sold with a higher upfront cost for better fuel efficiency long term. That won't be the barrier to sales. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I think diesels will be gone from trucks sooner than a lot of people think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 47 minutes ago, J-150 said: Fact remains, there have been millions of passenger vehicles sold with a higher upfront cost for better fuel efficiency long term. That won't be the barrier to sales. But there are more factors then just that-Diesel has lost any cost advantage over gas engine due to fuel cost, upfront cost and additional maintenance costs. I was poking around with pricing-The Bolt starts at 40K and a Cruze starts at 23K..to get the same options, a Cruze would be 26K. The federal tax credit helps close the gap in pricing, but your still paying $9K more for a Bolt, which is a smaller car then the Cruze. https://www.truedelta.com/Chevrolet-Bolt-EV-vs-Chevrolet-Cruze-price-comparison,1369-1008,2018&pc=6583229&price_feature=3&personal_feature= The other issue, is that according to Fuel Economy.gov, your only saving $550 a year or so going electric vs gas https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39786&id=39143 So that extra $9K up front can pay for roughly 7-8 years worth of gas for the Cruze... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 (edited) The OP article even says, Quote Deloitte claims that the upfront purchase price of a battery-powered vehicle is among the largest stumbling blocks to adoption Some people will see the value in paying a higher up front cost because they see value in that in the long run but many regular people don't. It's important to keep perspective here and understand that the majority of retail buyers are simply not prepared to pay so much more up front. Edited January 23, 2019 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-150 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, silvrsvt said: But there are more factors then just that-Diesel has lost any cost advantage over gas engine due to fuel cost, upfront cost and additional maintenance costs. I was poking around with pricing-The Bolt starts at 40K and a Cruze starts at 23K..to get the same options, a Cruze would be 26K. The federal tax credit helps close the gap in pricing, but your still paying $9K more for a Bolt, which is a smaller car then the Cruze. https://www.truedelta.com/Chevrolet-Bolt-EV-vs-Chevrolet-Cruze-price-comparison,1369-1008,2018&pc=6583229&price_feature=3&personal_feature= The other issue, is that according to Fuel Economy.gov, your only saving $550 a year or so going electric vs gas https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39786&id=39143 So that extra $9K up front can pay for roughly 7-8 years worth of gas for the Cruze... Right. No argument here. But it is still fact that over the previous several decades, millions of cars were sold with premium cost on an engine to get better fuel economy. Whether it's still cheaper is irrelevant. People have shown they are prepared to pay a premium. Not to mention people that paid premiums for ecoboost engines... Edited January 23, 2019 by J-150 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, J-150 said: Right. No argument here. But it is still fact that over the previous several decades, millions of cars were sold with premium cost on an engine to get better fuel economy. And given the same timeline of several decades, we can expect the same for BEVs... Quote Whether it's still cheaper is irrelevant. People have shown they are prepared to pay a premium. Not to mention people that paid premiums for ecoboost engines... But that's the thing, the cost difference with Ecoboost was lowered to make it much more affordable to reach more people, that was one of Mulally's key points, delivering affordable quality and technology to the masses. There will always be a group of buyers prepared to embrace new technology, the harder thing to do is decide which part of the market to play in, which segments make sense to pioneer that tech and maybe that's the delay, switching from cars to utilties may actually capture an more engaging buyer group.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 22 minutes ago, J-150 said: Right. No argument here. But it is still fact that over the previous several decades, millions of cars were sold with premium cost on an engine to get better fuel economy. Whether it's still cheaper is irrelevant. People have shown they are prepared to pay a premium. Not to mention people that paid premiums for ecoboost engines... Outside of hybrids-which only make up 2-3% of the market at this time, would be the primary example of that. Otherwise the base engine in 99% of products is the fuel economy leader and people pay extra for better performing engines-like the Ecoboost as stated, which can give you both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 With gasoline engines the fuel cost is the same so it's easier to make up the difference in fuel costs over a few years of ownership. And the cost premium is usually small. With diesels the upfront cost is a lot higher AND fuel is more expensive making it much more difficult to justify based solely on costs especially after the diesel software scandals have lowered fuel economy ratings to where they should have been all along. Diesel truck buyers pay a premium for long term durability and power, not lower fuel costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-150 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 You guys are dancing around it but not a one of you can refute that many have have paid a premium for diesel cars over the past several decades. It has been done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 31 minutes ago, J-150 said: You guys are dancing around it but not a one of you can refute that many have have paid a premium for diesel cars over the past several decades. It has been done. Geez, nobody said that hasn’t happened in the past or that it will never happen again. The question is how much of a premium are they willing to pay? Big difference between a $3K premium and a $20K premium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gnostic Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I think ford going with performance EV is the way to go initially. People will spend more for performance than for fuel economy. People aren't buying Teslas because they are economical 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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