Jump to content

Electric Cars Will Beat Older Cars on Cost Surprisingly Soon, Analysis Says


Recommended Posts

https://www.inverse.com/article/52625-electric-cars-will-beat-older-cars-on-cost-surprisingly-soon-analysis-says

 

Electric cars could overtake gas-powered cars on cost in less than a decade’s time, an analysis published Monday reveals. Deloitte claims that the upfront purchase price of a battery-powered vehicle is among the largest stumbling blocks to adoption, but the analysis found that the cost of owning one of these cars could match their traditional counterparts globally by 2022.

Morgan Stanley predicts traditional cars will become unprofitable by 2028, paving the way for electric car sales to overtake by 2038.

Anyone else getting this feeling that the electric car thing is getting oversold by investors and anaylists? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, akirby said:

I still say plug in hybrids will be much more successful over the next 10 years as BEVs slowly ramp up.

Right, plus given the costs of buying a new vehicle, its not like people are replacing a car/cuv/suv every 5 years...they keep them roughly 10 years or so. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

And then we have the VW CEO saying that EV's will be too expensive for many entry-level buyers.

https://qz.com/1528921/vws-chairman-says-even-small-electric-cars-arent-going-to-be-cheap/

Entry-level buyers are better served by used cars anyway. In the U.S., used BEV models like Ford Focus Electric, Fiat 500 EV, Mitsubishi i-MiEV that are "compliance" cars, have ridiculous depreciation. It's not hard to find 3 year old versions of those BEV models with less than 30k miles for $12,000 or less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Entry-level buyers are better served by used cars anyway. In the U.S., used BEV models like Ford Focus Electric, Fiat 500 EV, Mitsubishi i-MiEV that are "compliance" cars, have ridiculous depreciation. It's not hard to find 3 year old versions of those BEV models with less than 30k miles for $12,000 or less.

That makes no sense-why would a "poor" person want to buy a car that can't even come close doing the same things as ICE vehicle...thats part of ther reason why they have shitty resale vaule. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Deloitte claims that the upfront purchase price of a battery-powered vehicle is among the largest stumbling blocks to adoption, but the analysis found that the cost of owning one of these cars could match their traditional counterparts globally by 2022.

Well DUH, but the stumbling block is still making folks pay up front for all the savings on fuel they'll make over the next three to four years.

I don't buy it, this is someone using math to justify paying more now with zero cost benefit over the normal finance period of vehicles.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, J-150 said:

Diesel engines say you're full of shit.

maybe...if they are still around.....zero sign of the 1.5 diesel transit Connect yet...Mazda walked away, Honda walked away, VW is walking away ( and thus Audi, Porsche ) Mercedes have said they are done...BMW?....IMO youll soon only see Diesels in higher GVW vehicles and commercial applications...but if a hybrid version of the same vehicle comes out I would say its game on , and I can see diesel going away completely...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, akirby said:

People buy diesels because they’re diesels or for towing, not for MPG.

Im sure all the VW owners that had their Golfs and Jettas bought back may object to that, they were loyal until their high pressure fuel pump cost them 6k to replace.......lol...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, J-150 said:

Fact remains, there have been millions of passenger vehicles sold with a higher upfront cost for better fuel efficiency long term. That won't be the barrier to sales. 

 

But there are more factors then just that-Diesel has lost any cost advantage over gas engine due to fuel cost, upfront cost and additional maintenance costs.

I was poking around with pricing-The Bolt starts at 40K and a Cruze starts at 23K..to get the same options, a Cruze would be 26K. 
The federal tax credit helps close the gap in pricing, but your still paying $9K more for a Bolt, which is a smaller car then the Cruze.

https://www.truedelta.com/Chevrolet-Bolt-EV-vs-Chevrolet-Cruze-price-comparison,1369-1008,2018&pc=6583229&price_feature=3&personal_feature=

The other issue, is that according to Fuel Economy.gov, your only saving $550 a year or so going electric vs gas
https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39786&id=39143

So that extra $9K up front can pay for roughly 7-8 years worth of gas for the Cruze...

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The OP article even says,

Quote

Deloitte claims that the upfront purchase price of a battery-powered vehicle is among the largest stumbling blocks to adoption

Some people will see the value in paying a higher up front cost because they see value in that in the long run but many regular people don't.

It's important to keep perspective here and understand that the majority of retail buyers are simply not prepared to pay so much more up front.

Edited by jpd80
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

But there are more factors then just that-Diesel has lost any cost advantage over gas engine due to fuel cost, upfront cost and additional maintenance costs.

I was poking around with pricing-The Bolt starts at 40K and a Cruze starts at 23K..to get the same options, a Cruze would be 26K. 
The federal tax credit helps close the gap in pricing, but your still paying $9K more for a Bolt, which is a smaller car then the Cruze.

https://www.truedelta.com/Chevrolet-Bolt-EV-vs-Chevrolet-Cruze-price-comparison,1369-1008,2018&pc=6583229&price_feature=3&personal_feature=

The other issue, is that according to Fuel Economy.gov, your only saving $550 a year or so going electric vs gas
https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39786&id=39143

So that extra $9K up front can pay for roughly 7-8 years worth of gas for the Cruze...

 

Right. No argument here.

 

But it is still fact that over the previous several decades, millions of cars were sold with premium cost on an engine to get better fuel economy.

 

Whether it's still cheaper is irrelevant. People have shown they are prepared to pay a premium.

 

Not to mention people that paid premiums for ecoboost engines...

Edited by J-150
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, J-150 said:

Right. No argument here.

 

But it is still fact that over the previous several decades, millions of cars were sold with premium cost on an engine to get better fuel economy.

And given the same timeline of several decades, we can expect the same for BEVs... 
 

Quote

 

Whether it's still cheaper is irrelevant. People have shown they are prepared to pay a premium.

Not to mention people that paid premiums for ecoboost engines...

 

But that's the thing, the cost difference with Ecoboost was lowered to make it much more affordable to reach more people, that was one of Mulally's key points, delivering affordable quality and technology to the masses. There will always be a group of buyers prepared to embrace new technology, the harder thing to do is decide which part of the market to play in, which segments make sense to pioneer that tech and maybe that's the delay, switching from cars to utilties may actually capture an more engaging buyer group..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, J-150 said:

Right. No argument here.

 

But it is still fact that over the previous several decades, millions of cars were sold with premium cost on an engine to get better fuel economy.

 

Whether it's still cheaper is irrelevant. People have shown they are prepared to pay a premium.

 

Not to mention people that paid premiums for ecoboost engines...

Outside of hybrids-which only make up 2-3% of the market at this time, would be the primary example of that. Otherwise the base engine in 99% of products is the fuel economy leader and people pay extra for better performing engines-like the Ecoboost as stated, which can give you both. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With gasoline engines the fuel cost is the same so it's easier to make up the difference in fuel costs over a few years of ownership.  And the cost premium is usually small.

With diesels the upfront cost is a lot higher AND fuel is more expensive making it much more difficult to justify based solely on costs especially after the diesel software scandals have lowered fuel economy ratings to where they should have been all along.

Diesel truck buyers pay a premium for long term durability and power, not lower fuel costs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, J-150 said:

You guys are dancing around it but not a one of you can refute that many have have paid a premium for diesel cars over the past several decades. It has been done.

 

 

Geez, nobody said that hasn’t happened in the past or that it will never happen again.   The question is how much of a premium are they willing to pay?  Big difference between a $3K premium and a $20K premium.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...