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The Handler

Toyota's Lentz sees car sales stabilizing, EVs languishing

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49 minutes ago, msm859 said:

 I think "range anxiety" is overblown.  I suspect 90% of the population rarely drives over 500 miles in a single day for personal use.

Range anxiety is no longer a big issue for most commutes.   But that's not the issue.  The issue is if I want a BEV as my ONLY vehicle(s) - which is what people are implying is going to happen very soon - then I have to consider weekend trips, holidays, vacations, etc. where range anxiety IS a big issue.   Yes, you could rent a vehicle for such occasions but most people aren't going to do that.

 

Until you get rid of range anxiety BEVs will continue to be second vehicles in the household (I believe).

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I've mentioned this several times.  The ridiculous reduction in driving range of a BEV in cold weather will be an automatic no-go for many who live in the northern parts of the country.  An advertised 300+ mile range in 75 degree weather can be only half that at 30 F.  The expected high temperature in my small town on Sunday is forecasted to be 2F.  I shudder (deliberate pun) to think how that would impact the range of a BEV.

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5 hours ago, 92merc said:

I can't believe that Toyota doesn't see the writing on the wall that sedans are on their way out.  They will or have already become a niche market.

I think Toyota was just carefully wording their response so they don't scare anyone off from buying their current sedans, since they are the number one maker of sedans in NA.

What's more concerning for me is that it doesn't seem Toyota is interested in making any new models of CUV's to add to their lineup to replace the shrinking sedan sales.  They can't continue selling all the same Camry's, Corolla, Prius's like it's business as usual.  Of course, as a Ford fan, I'm all too happy to see Toyota fumble this one...

All I know is that the big three Japanese carmakers, say they will continue to support cars in some capacity and all the American makers are bailing or appear to be bailing as GM and Chrysler seem to be keeping at least one car (other than the pony car) in the line up.

So, who do I believe is right? I guess I'm going to have to believe the one who took half the market share of the other.  I think the big three are making a mistake if they 100 percent abandon cars.

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The answer is modular, insert style batteries. Anyone familiar with industrial warehouses knows of battery exchange in forklift fleets. The driver with an empty battery dives to the battery's Tatiana.  He leaves for a pee and when he returns in 3 minutes the battery has been replaced with a fresh, charged cell.

 

Another example is the "exchange a tank" where you pick up full propane tanks and drop off your empty.

 

So imagine owning the car, but renting the battery.

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19 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

He's not really wrong, the bleeding has to stop sometime. The question when that happens 

It wasn't clear if the 30% market share he was talking about was cars or just sedans.

30% for all cars means sedan + wagon + coupe + hatchback + convertible. It's possible but I would peg that number closer to 20%. We are already at 30% and falling so I don't see that number holding in the long run.

30% for sedans is crazy talk. It's already below that number.

31138242997_312d20ebea_b.jpg

 

Edited by bzcat

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12 hours ago, bzcat said:

It wasn't clear if the 30% market share he was talking about was cars or just sedans.

30% for all cars means sedan + wagon + coupe + hatchback + convertible. It's possible but I would peg that number closer to 20%. We are already at 30% and falling so I don't see that number holding in the long run.

30% for sedans is crazy talk. It's already below that number.

31138242997_312d20ebea_b.jpg

 

The Toyota brand could be made up of 30 percent sedans as other brands phase them out and stubborn sedan buyers migrate to brands like Toyota who keep sedans.

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17 hours ago, msm859 said:

I suspect 90% of the population rarely drives over 500 miles in a single day for personal use.

You are correct about that, but how many times do people actually use pickup beds or fold the seats down in their CUV to put stuff in it?? I'd venture to say only slightly more then that. But yet they are still the two best selling products in the market...just because they can. Sometimes the perceved need for something actually outweighs the actual need for it. 

Do I really need a hybrid Bronco? Prob not-my commute is 13 miles one way, but having a hybrid option helps offset possible future gas price increases and it would be nice to have something bigger then an Escape for home improvement projects I do-though I doubt I'll be able to fit a 4x8 piece of plywood or sheetrock in it...and I'm not a fan of a pickup (though a Ranger Raptor would be very tempting)

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21 hours ago, akirby said:

I guarantee you 99% of EV buyers have another ICE vehicle at home.  It's just not practical as an only vehicle yet and won't be for another several years.

True, but it can be a great commuter/city car, as long as you've got that ICE as well.

(Actually, I have a niece who has a husband and baby and they are a two-BEV family -- Model 3 and Bolt. They live in LA, though, and don't do road trips.)

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16 hours ago, J-150 said:

The answer is modular, insert style batteries. Anyone familiar with industrial warehouses knows of battery exchange in forklift fleets. The driver with an empty battery dives to the battery's Tatiana.  He leaves for a pee and when he returns in 3 minutes the battery has been replaced with a fresh, charged cell.

 

Another example is the "exchange a tank" where you pick up full propane tanks and drop off your empty.

 

So imagine owning the car, but renting the battery.

Tesla proposed this years ago, but still hasn't done it.

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Building up that type of infrastructure with enough batteries for everyone and the hardware to change the battery pack is an enormous undertaking and expensive.

Getting all manufacturers to build their vehicles using the same modular battery packs would be even harder.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

Getting all manufacturers to build their vehicles using the same modular battery packs would be even harder.

Regulations could force them to but we all know how likely that is to happen....

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

Building up that type of infrastructure with enough batteries for everyone and the hardware to change the battery pack is an enormous undertaking and expensive.

Getting all manufacturers to build their vehicles using the same modular battery packs would be even harder.

Building a national network of 5 minute charging stations, on the other hand, will be easy and low cost 

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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

Tesla proposed this years ago, but still hasn't done it.

I won’t even exchange my propane tank for fear of getting a bad one. Why the heck would anyone be comfortable swapping out a component that represents two thirds the value of their car?

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45 minutes ago, J-150 said:

Building a national network of 5 minute charging stations, on the other hand, will be easy and low cost 

 

The electrical connections already exist at current stations, so adding chargers wouldn't be prohibitively expensive compared to stocking up with batteries and the equipment to change them.   So yes it would be much easier and cheaper by comparison but not "easy and low cost".

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21 hours ago, akirby said:

 

The electrical connections already exist at current stations, so adding chargers wouldn't be prohibitively expensive compared to stocking up with batteries and the equipment to change them.   So yes it would be much easier and cheaper by comparison but not "easy and low cost".

I can tell you that new corporate stations for Circle K, Speedway, and Shell are already putting in the power and transformer requirements in stations designed today, this started in planning 2 years ago. Stations like Kroger/Meijer/Wal-mart/Costco already have enough power on site for the stores to handle the power needs. Once you can charge in 10 min that is when electrics can become the only vehicles someone needs, and that charging time will happen in the next 24-36 months.  

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15 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:

I can tell you that new corporate stations for Circle K, Speedway, and Shell are already putting in the power and transformer requirements in stations designed today, this started in planning 2 years ago. Stations like Kroger/Meijer/Wal-mart/Costco already have enough power on site for the stores to handle the power needs. Once you can charge in 10 min that is when electrics can become the only vehicles someone needs, and that charging time will happen in the next 24-36 months.  

I agree - a 200 mile charge in 10-15 minutes with charging stations every 20-30 miles would pretty much eliminate any range anxiety.

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21 hours ago, akirby said:

 

The electrical connections already exist at current stations, so adding chargers wouldn't be prohibitively expensive compared to stocking up with batteries and the equipment to change them.   So yes it would be much easier and cheaper by comparison but not "easy and low cost".

Clearly you're not an electrician nor electrical engineer.

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4 minutes ago, J-150 said:

Clearly you're not an electrician nor electrical engineer.

 

No but I understand a lot.

Look at it this way - no matter which way you go, you'll need the charging infrastructure to charge the batteries whether they're inside or outside the vehicle.   So that's a few thousand per charger one time cost and might require upgraded service from the local utility, although I'm sure newer stores are already designed with that in mind.

So the difference is having to stock enough batteries (and different types if there isn't a single standard) that you can always have several charged and ready to go AND you need special equipment to be able to swap the batteries in a timely manner.

I said neither was "easy and low cost" but stocking and changing batteries is absolutely more expensive than just doing chargers because you need the chargers either way.

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On 1/15/2019 at 11:53 PM, jpd80 said:

 

Nothing like predicting the product space and market share you intend filling in the future

Yes sir. Toyota made a big bet on hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell EV over BEV. Plus Toyota cancelled its partnership with Tesla in 2014. I think Mr. Lentz told Automotive News what he did because he doesn't want to lose face. 

What Jim Lentz is really saying is "consumers have yet to show great demand for battery electric vehicles designed by Toyota."

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

 

No but I understand a lot stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Look at it this way - no matter which way you go, you'll need the charging infrastructure to charge the batteries whether they're inside or outside the vehicle.   So that's a few thousand per charger one time cost and might require upgraded service from the local utility, although I'm sure newer stores are already designed with that in mind.

So the difference is having to stock enough batteries (and different types if there isn't a single standard) that you can always have several charged and ready to go AND you need special equipment to be able to swap the batteries in a timely manner.

I said neither was "easy and low cost" but stocking and changing batteries is absolutely more expensive than just doing chargers because you need the chargers either way.

Sorry, first thing that popped up in my mind as i read it....

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On 1/16/2019 at 6:29 AM, twintornados said:

Here is the reason why EV's will not "take over" nationwide....say you are cruising along in your brand new EV in rural "resume speed" Iowa...not a charging station for miles and miles and for whatever reason, you didn't get enough charge last time you were plugged in and you run out of "zap"....in an ICE powered vehicle, you could hike on down the road for a can of gasoline, hike on back, pour it in and off you go...what would you do with that EV....you just cannot run out and get a can of electricity and pour it in....

EV's will work great in urban areas, it is the rural areas that are the issue....and in the the good ole US of A, there are a LOT of rural areas to contend with...

A-fricken-MEN!    I totally agree, esp. on the concept of EV's being good in urban areas.  I work in A2, and EVs will make total sense in this kind of enviroment.

However - until "Doc" invents the flux-capacitor and the "Mr. Fusion" for  electric vehicles, the prospects of sitting stranded on a cold snowy isolated road in Northern Michigan in dead of winter with a completely drained EV has NO appeal to me whatSOever.

A gasoline-hybrid would be the largest step I'll be taking into that realm until A.) petrol is non-existent or prohibitively expensive or B.) "Doc" shows up with the DeLorean!  😉  LOL

-Ovaltine

mr_fusion.JPG

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Toyota, with Ford, FCA and Honda, is in the "conservative" side of the autoindustry . This conservative group think the EVs will gain popularity slowly in the future. On the other extreme are the "agressive" group of automakers that think the EVs will dominate the industry tomorrow. In this group are VW, Nissan and , in a more caution form, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.  In the middle are the intermediate group, that are preparing for EVs, but don´t bet everything to them: GM, Jaguar-Land Rover, PSA

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You forgot one variable - those who think BEVs are coming but won’t produce any significant profit.  This is where I think Ford is and why they’re only pursuing a high end performance BEV.  They’ll have the platform available and will be able to respond to the market as it changes but they’re not going to chase sales until they’re profitable.

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36 minutes ago, akirby said:

You forgot one variable - those who think BEVs are coming but won’t produce any significant profit.  This is where I think Ford is and why they’re only pursuing a high end performance BEV.  They’ll have the platform available and will be able to respond to the market as it changes but they’re not going to chase sales until they’re profitable.

This is the conservative group. Ford, like Toyota, Honda and FCA ,  is very cautious with EVs because its demand big investments with little  profits. In the opposite extreme is VW, that is thinking about changing their entire business to electric form in 2 generations (8-10 years)!. If the VW approach fail, VW ( and Audi, Posche, Seat, Bentley, Lamborghini, Skoda) will disappear.

Edited by falconlover 1

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1 hour ago, falconlover 1 said:

In the opposite extreme is VW, that is thinking about changing their entire business to electric form in 2 generations (8-10 years)!. If the VW approach fail, VW ( and Audi, Posche, Seat, Bentley, Lamborghini, Skoda) will disappear.

It's a risky move for VW Group and Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance. But I'm confident they are taking the right approach. Most automotive industry analysts agree that EV and autonomous technologies will define the industry in the next decade.

If VW Group and Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance succeed with their EV plans, which I think they well, their status as the two biggest global automakers is practically guaranteed. And their lead on Toyota will only widen.

Edited by rperez817

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