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Toyota's Lentz sees car sales stabilizing, EVs languishing


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49 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 Most automotive industry analysts agree that EV and autonomous technologies will define the industry in the next decade......

Depends how you define the word "define."  All but the knuckle-draggers agree that EV's and AV's are coming (what is being called Auto 2.0), but it's the degree of customer acceptance that is up for debate.  Personal opinion here, but in ten years I see EV's to be no more than 10% of the market.  AV's, much less than that.  Of course we'll see.

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5 hours ago, mackinaw said:

Depends how you define the word "define."  All but the knuckle-draggers agree that EV's and AV's are coming (what is being called Auto 2.0), but it's the degree of customer acceptance that is up for debate.  Personal opinion here, but in ten years I see EV's to be no more than 10% of the market.  AV's, much less than that.  Of course we'll see.

Haven't seen the latest figures but California is already knocking on the door of 10% of new cars sold  being either BEV or PHEV's.  I expect in 10 years it will be substantially more.

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20 minutes ago, msm859 said:

Haven't seen the latest figures but California is already knocking on the door of 10% of new cars sold  being either BEV or PHEV's.  I expect in 10 years it will be substantially more.

Just checked.  California may come in at 7.5% for 2018, for the U.S. maybe 1.75%. 

You live in California, I live in northern Michigan.  Outside of a few Tesla's passing down I-75, you don't see EV's up here.  You just don't.  I suspect where I live is more representative of the country overall than California.

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Most of the push on EVs and AVs is coming from tech manufacturers and legislators, it is not buyer side demand and if anything, convincing buyers to pay more for EVs in the hope of future gains is becoming a lost conversation on the $20K-$30K buyers...they just don't want it unless the price is the same as a current ICE. That is not going to change in the foreseeable future....

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51 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

Just checked.  California may come in at 7.5% for 2018, for the U.S. maybe 1.75%. 

You live in California, I live in northern Michigan.  Outside of a few Tesla's passing down I-75, you don't see EV's up here.  You just don't.  I suspect where I live is more representative of the country overall than California.

I suspect where you live is the other extreme. The rest of the country is somewhere in between. I see Teslas and/or Leafs on an almost daily basis, but not hordes of them like in Cali.

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27 minutes ago, AGR said:

I suspect where you live is the other extreme. The rest of the country is somewhere in between. I see Teslas and/or Leafs on an almost daily basis, but not hordes of them like in Cali.

Again, EV's only made up nearly 1.75% of the U.S. market in 2018.  This means that 98.25% of all vehicles sold in this country weren't EV's.   Kind of lop-sided, I'd say.

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Even at 25% EV sales, it takes 16 years to get 50% EV's on the road. 

Assuming average life of cars 8 years, which is 12.5 % replaced  each year. 

When do "we" think EV's will be more than 50% of the sales, as that is the only 

way they even start gaining ground. Going to be along time, no matter how you slice it. 

 

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3 hours ago, mackinaw said:

Just checked.  California may come in at 7.5% for 2018, for the U.S. maybe 1.75%. 

You live in California, I live in northern Michigan.  Outside of a few Tesla's passing down I-75, you don't see EV's up here.  You just don't.  I suspect where I live is more representative of the country overall than California.

Don't forget too that Rick Snyder signed a law a few years ago reaffirming dealer franchise laws and shutting out Tesla's stores. 

If you want a Tesla in Michigan, you gotta buy it out of state

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2 hours ago, AGR said:

I suspect where you live is the other extreme. The rest of the country is somewhere in between. I see Teslas and/or Leafs on an almost daily basis, but not hordes of them like in Cali.

He lives in northern Michigan. I'd say it's 75% Trucks and BOF SUVs and 25% everything else

Down here in civilization (Detroit area) I see a Tesla probably once a week.

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14 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

He lives in northern Michigan. I'd say it's 75% Trucks and BOF SUVs and 25% everything else

Down here in civilization (Detroit area) I see a Tesla probably once a week.

Yeah, you're probably right about the percentage of trucks vs. sedans up here in Northern Michigan.  Full-sized pickups reign supreme.  I suspect this is true for most rural areas.

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14 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Don't forget too that Rick Snyder signed a law a few years ago reaffirming dealer franchise laws and shutting out Tesla's stores. 

If you want a Tesla in Michigan, you gotta buy it out of state

Henry Payne, the auto writer for the Detroit News, bought his Model 3 in Ohio.  Cleveland i believe.

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I see Lentz's comments as self serving for 2 reasons: Toyota plan to continue sales in that segment, therefore it behooves him to toe the company line and predict adequate sales levels going forward. The other reason is Toyota seem to be suspiciously absent in BEV development, so one might infer that Toyota have not strategically bought into the BEV hoopla quite yet, and perhaps plan to continue down the path of hybrids and fuel cell development.

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5 hours ago, mackinaw said:

Henry Payne, the auto writer for the Detroit News, bought his Model 3 in Ohio.  Cleveland i believe.

Yes sir. Mr. Payne took delivery of his Model 3 at the Tesla sales and service center in Lyndhurst, Ohio, east of Cleveland. In Metro Detroit, there is a Tesla Gallery at the Somerset Collection shopping center. It's display & information only though. No new vehicle deliveries at that location.

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5 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

I see Lentz's comments as self serving for 2 reasons: Toyota plan to continue sales in that segment, therefore it behooves him to toe the company line and predict adequate sales levels going forward. The other reason is Toyota seem to be suspiciously absent in BEV development, so one might infer that Toyota have not strategically bought into the BEV hoopla quite yet, and perhaps plan to continue down the path of hybrids and fuel cell development.

Excellent post Harley Lover. Lentz' comments are definitely self serving. He's trying to save face with Toyota's failure up to now to design and produce a BEV of its own for the U.S. market.

Toyota corporate's position on BEV is different from Mr Lentz'. Toyota Executive VP Shigeki Terashi said.

"In particular, to popularize electrified vehicles, Toyota is aiming for at least 50% of all the vehicles it sells globally in 2030 to be electrified, and, of those, for more than 10% to be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

First, from 2020 onward, we will advance the fullscale roll-out of BEVs. Specifically, we will launch mass-market BEVs developed by Toyota for the Chinese market in 2020, then expand sales to Japan,
India, the United States, Europe, and around the globe. We plan to introduce more than 10 BEV models in the first half of the decade
."

 

 

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You want to know why BEVs aren’t going to take over any time soon?  They can’t be sold at volume and make money yet.  Teslas are at least $10K too cheap and once you get into those prices your potential buyers list shrinks considerably.  You can do one or two models and either live with low volume or no profits for a few years (or rely on capital investors and shell games) but to take it mainstream just won’t work until prices come way down and you can sell multiple models at a profit.

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Just stumbled across this article where VW's Chairman says future EV's won't be cheap.  

"Converting the world’s automobile fleet to fully electric will be more energy efficient in the long run, but Hans-Dieter Poetsch, chairman of Volkswagen, warns that it’s not going to be cheap.

The auto executive tried to tamp down expectations that VW’s entry-level electric vehicles were going to be competitively priced with their non-electric counterparts, in an interview with the Welt am Sonntagnewspaper, published today (Jan. 20).“The current price level cannot stay the same if these cars are equipped with electric motors,” he said, according to the Reuters. “Therefore, it will inevitably lead to significant price increases in the small car segment.”

Poetsch also said the higher costs of small electric carts might make them unaffordable for people with low incomes."
 
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23 hours ago, CurtisH said:

Here in Georgia, I’ve probably never seen more than three in a week.  On average, I may see one per week.  To be honest, though, I don’t really look for Tesla’s.  They don’t make anything that I’m interested in. 

Down here in south Florida, I see probably 10-15 Teslas a day.

Then again, BMWs are every other car, see several Ferraris, Lamborghinis, etc. a day, so not exactly a representative market.

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13 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Down here in south Florida, I see probably 10-15 Teslas a day.

Then again, BMWs are every other car, see several Ferraris, Lamborghinis, etc. a day, so not exactly a representative market.

Similar to the North Atlanta suburbs.  Lots of Teslas, Porsches, Ferraris.  Not many Lambos though.

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13 minutes ago, akirby said:

Similar to the North Atlanta suburbs.  Lots of Teslas, Porsches, Ferraris.  Not many Lambos though.

I've seen 2 Urus' (Urii?) within the last couple of weeks - one blue (similar to Lightning Blue), and one yellow.  They look pretty cool in person.

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