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Highlight from sales call

December Average transaction prices:

F Series - $46,900;

Navigator - $87,500

Ford/Lincoln - $38,000

Sales December.........Total 2018

F Series - 87,772...........909,330...includes 10 months of over 70,000 sales

Expedition - 6,253..........54,661

Navigator.....2,073.........17,839

Edited by jpd80

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Thank you ANTAUS for the sales links and thank you jpd80 for the highlights from the call. 

Looks like Ford really focused on quality over quantity for December 2018 sales. Good job Ford bringing fleet sales to below 25%.

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Navigator still needs more inventory though, as of 1 December, it was approx. 3,000 while Expedition was 22,000

These babies need a fair wack of Inventory to give dealers some stock depth and importantly, the right trim mix.

Edited by jpd80

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Just now, rperez817 said:

Thank you ANTAUS for the sales links and thank you jpd80 for the highlights from the call. 

Looks like Ford really focused on quality over quantity for December 2018 sales. Good job Ford bringing fleet sales to below 25%.

Important part of that is daily rentals at 7.6% for December and  10,5% for 2018

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It's nice to see Lincoln bump up the last few months of the year after a dreadful start (which mostly came from dropping fleet sales and the company program).  Next year should be interesting/telling for the brand with Navigator still new, Nautilus being new (would've been nice for them to have kept MKX/Nautilus number separate to compare, but I get why they combined them with it just a refresh), and with Aviator and Corsair launching.

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11 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

It's nice to see Lincoln bump up the last few months of the year after a dreadful start (which mostly came from dropping fleet sales and the company program).  Next year should be interesting/telling for the brand with Navigator still new, Nautilus being new (would've been nice for them to have kept MKX/Nautilus number separate to compare, but I get why they combined them with it just a refresh), and with Aviator and Corsair launching.

2019 could be a great year for Lincoln. I am a little worried about a recession for auto sales but in my industry it's a boom (as long as there is volatility).  The Aviator should help us forget the MKT and that failed attempt at 3 row luxury. I'm hoping the Aviator is really the home run we think it will be. I don't know enough about the Corsair other than it will be slightly bigger than MKC and have hybrid options.  

When will the Navigator get an MCE 2020 or 2021? If they can roll out an air suspension and phev options then it looks like then next few years could be a boom for Lincoln but who know what happens to our economy.

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24 minutes ago, jcartwright99 said:

2019 could be a great year for Lincoln. I am a little worried about a recession for auto sales but in my industry it's a boom (as long as there is volatility).  The Aviator should help us forget the MKT and that failed attempt at 3 row luxury. I'm hoping the Aviator is really the home run we think it will be. I don't know enough about the Corsair other than it will be slightly bigger than MKC and have hybrid options.  

When will the Navigator get an MCE 2020 or 2021? If they can roll out an air suspension and phev options then it looks like then next few years could be a boom for Lincoln but who know what happens to our economy.

I'm hoping the same about Aviator.  Fingers crossed at this point.

I don't expect Corsair to necessarily light the world on fire, but I'm sure it'll do better than MKC, especially with other strong models in the same showroom generating traffic (the "just came to browse the new models, wound up leaving with it" effect).

If they stuck with a 3-/6-year cycle, it'd presumably be 2021 for a Navigator MCE.  I hope it and Expy were designed with F-150's hybrid setup in mind (a place for the battery).

Edited by rmc523

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December / 2018 YTD sales

Ford 220,774 / 2,497,318

Toyota 220,910 / 2,426,672

Ford keeps the #2 spot but it is only a 9.5 selling day difference between the two. And Toyota out sold Ford the last half of the year.

Edited by bzcat

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The MKX/Nautilus for one month, outsold the the MKT for the entire year by 1,000 units.  That's really funny to think about.  

I think 2019 will likely be Ford's hardest year since they will be fully exiting several high volume car models, transitioning some of their most important utilities to new higher margin sales, and facing the first real challengers to the aging F-Series in many years alongside Ranger which will likely contribute to reducing F-Series demand.  But Ranger should soften the blow and help to even things out, and Ford has been pretty good about keeping utility sales flat in anticipation of lower volumes on their new vehicles.  They do have a fairly smart strategic view of things, especially as they transition and update their aging fleet.  I think much of this will be tempered by the presence of new product by the end of the year which should add some badly needed confidence.  

It's a little curious to me that Ford is struggling to keep up with demand for Navigator, when in reality we're only talking about sales increases of about 10,000 units between Expedition and Navigator, which doesn't seem like that much.  Expedition definitely not the phenomenon that Navigator ended up being.  

Edited by Assimilator

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39 minutes ago, bzcat said:

Ford sold more EcoSport than Fiesta... despite higher MSRP on EcoSport and a surprising 12% increase in Fiesta sales. I think that pretty much says all it needs to be said about car vs. SUVs

 

 

And the EcoSport being more or less derided by the press in reviews. I have yet to see a positive review of the car. 

 

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36 minutes ago, bzcat said:

December / 2018 YTD sales

Ford 220,774 / 2,497,318

Toyota 220,910 / 2,426,672

Ford keeps the #2 spot but it is only a 9.5 selling day difference between the two. And Toyota out sold Ford the last half of the year.

They're sure to pass Ford next year, with no help until the latter end of the year for Ford.

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I don't think new Explorer or Escape will add sales, they certainly aren't expanding production, they are just going to add profits.  I think it's going to be hard for Ford to replace sales they are loosing from Focus, Fiesta, Fusion, Taurus, Flex, etc.  They just have to even them out.  But Ranger should do a fairly good job replacing Focus and C-Max sales this year for example.  So that's one hole plugged with MUCH higher profits.  Once Bronco comes online, that should add volume to replace Flex, Fiesta and Taurus, and possibly more.  Fusion will be further down the line and I think Maverick, Mach E, and the Courier SUV/Truck will be part of replacing that volume.  Again, all with higher margins.  

I think we just have to accept Ford is not going to be a growth company for years to come, but they should be able to improve their profits. 

And then we still have their new focus on AVs and the new Transit Connect vans, which will add volume they haven't had previously, probably not much but some.  

Edited by Assimilator

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4 hours ago, rmc523 said:

I'm hoping the same about Aviator.  Fingers crossed at this point.

I don't expect Corsair to necessarily light the world on fire, but I'm sure it'll do better than MKC, especially with other strong models in the same showroom generating traffic (the "just came to browse the new models, wound up leaving with it" effect).

If they stuck with a 3-/6-year cycle, it'd presumably be 2021 for a Navigator MCE.  I hope it and Expy were designed with F-150's hybrid setup in mind (a place for the battery).

I think the Aviator will be an aspirational product for Lincoln. Customers will buy it because they desire to have one rather than bought it because they got a good deal. I believe one out of every Lincolns sold will be one, and it will probably have a halo effect on the Nautilus and Corsair as well as people who can't afford and Aviator will find those products nice as well.

This in my opinion is a way to properly make a halo car instead of making a limited production sports car. After all, how many people go to a Ford dealership looking for a Shelby Mustang and walk out with an Escape? Every model should have a halo effect to the one slotted below it. 

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2 hours ago, Assimilator said:

It's a little curious to me that Ford is struggling to keep up with demand for Navigator, when in reality we're only talking about sales increases of about 10,000 units between Expedition and Navigator, which doesn't seem like that much.  Expedition definitely not the phenomenon that Navigator ended up being.  

It's  production planning, Ford is not making enough Navigators to get inventory up over 3,000 while Expedition is now at 22,000.

IMO, with Navigator inventory at 5,000 or 6,000, Lincoln dealerships would have more stock and better sales success.

Maybe Lincoln is deliberately keeping inventory tight to avoid incentives and make buyers order (planed build numbers?)

Edited by jpd80

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7 minutes ago, Assimilator said:

Navigator will probably hit a wall once the new Escalade comes out this year so I don't know if the higher sales are sustainable, it's still a fairly small business.  

Agreed, the crossovers seem to be the sweet spot of the luxury brands, not the big luxury rigs. This is why Aviator will determine if Lincoln is a sustainable brand or not.

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20 minutes ago, Assimilator said:

Navigator will probably hit a wall once the new Escalade comes out this year so I don't know if the higher sales are sustainable, it's still a fairly small business.  

It could also be seasonal fleet purchases too I guess but in saying that, those sales have increased with increasing inventory, I also believe that Ford is deaf to V8 buyers in this segment and once a new Escalade comes out, some Nav buyers will be looking at the new V8 SUV...it's that simple.

Also, just on replacing lost sales, maybe a change of perception, Ford isn't maintaining Escape and Explorer sales due to lower incentive spend

Q1, Ranger begins plugging lost Focus sales...also evidence that Ecosport is also doing some that already.

Q2, Aviator will be replacing lost Taurus sales, not Explorer

Q3 New Escape boosts sales back up near 30 K/mth,

Fusion stays for 2019 and then replaced by crossover called "Fusion"

This is all in spite of what happens in Mexico to boost Utility sales as that won't be happening until 2020.

Edited by jpd80

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6 minutes ago, atomcat68 said:

Agreed, the crossovers seem to be the sweet spot of the luxury brands, not the big luxury rigs. This is why Aviator will determine if Lincoln is a sustainable brand or not.

Lincoln's success hinges on all Utilities firing, not just one, Lincoln getting one new vehicle every year has been a slow, hard grind.

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2 minutes ago, atomcat68 said:

I think the Aviator will be an aspirational product for Lincoln. Customers will buy it because they desire to have one rather than bought it because they got a good deal. I believe one out of every Lincolns sold will be one, and it will probably have a halo effect on the Nautilus and Corsair as well as people who can't afford and Aviator will find those products nice as well.

This in my opinion is a way to properly make a halo car instead of making a limited production sports car. After all, how many people go to a Ford dealership looking for a Shelby Mustang and walk out with an Escape? Every model should have a halo effect to the one slotted below it. 

Yup, that's what I'm getting at - folks may come in to check out the Aviator, but realize a Corsair or Nautilus is more in their price range.

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