akirby Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Things that Tesla does well: 1. Build a super desirable product that buyers will pay a premium to own 2. Kill people with auto pilot 3. Bilk investors 4. Con wall street 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, akirby said: Things that Tesla does well: 1. Build a super desirable product that buyers will pay a premium to own 2. Kill people with auto pilot 3. Bilk investors 4. Con wall street Sounds like a GM playbook. All it's missing is: Step 5: ??? Step 6: Profit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, akirby said: Things that Tesla does well: 1. Build a super desirable product that buyers will pay a premium to own 2. Kill people with auto pilot 3. Bilk investors 4. Con wall street No need to punch below the belt ? Tesla has great engineering and the design is pretty top notch. Model 3 may not be everyone's cup of tea but you can't say the car is badly designed like a Dodge Caliber or Pontiac Aztek. Their cars are safe, efficient, and attractive/desirable which are the big 3 factors in my book. If Elon wasn't such an egomaniac, maybe they wouldn't have such a manufacturing and sales/customer service experience melt down either. Imagine if Tesla had not fired all the manufacturing experts that were in charge of building the cars, and had gone with a hybrid model of direct sales + franchised dealer model of distribution. I'd wager they be much further ahead of the game than they are now. Edited January 2, 2019 by bzcat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assimilator Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 (edited) One of the things that really separates Tesla from the rest of the Auto-Industry is the integrated electronic system and centralized controllers. Tesla systems are significantly more centralized, their sophistication is in their design simplicity. By comparison, all carmakers modularize their electronic system. In many ways, it's actually cheaper to make a more complicated decentralized electronic system because it means it's easier to buy the parts off the shelf or make parts optional. Tesla has tremendous cost efficiencies because of this approach, not to mention a far smarter automotive system. And the industry just don'ts know how to ground-up engineering, everything is just an integration of the previous thing. I can go on and on. Tesla is a truly remarkable automotive company, what they've done to influence new thinking is tremendous and I'm so glad they've made it. I can't help but draw analogies between iPhone and the rest of the mobile phone industry at the time. The rest of the auto-industry is just as smug as Microsoft, Blackberry, Motorola, Nokia, etc. at the time a major innovation was happening right in-front of them, so they either clumsily copied or sat on their hands and chastised iPhone. It's actually kinda easy to despise the incumbents because of this, and Ford is behaving in the same way. I don't think the analogy holds up entirely well, but depending on how history unfolds, you could see a "I told you so moment" if Ford and others ultimately fail. I chose to think Ford is more like Blackberry or Microsoft, focusing on their core strengths instead of responding directly. Edited January 3, 2019 by Assimilator 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 The vehicles aren’t the problem - it’s the business model that doesn’t work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msm859 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, akirby said: The vehicles aren’t the problem - it’s the business model that doesn’t work. Well actually the business model is to build BEV's that people will buy - make them fast and good looking, add a super charger network to help with range anxiety. So far it has worked because no one else is close. Further, they are dragging the rest of the industry - sometimes kicking and screaming into the 21st century. BEV's are the future. Hopefully Ford is serious about getting in the game. Plug in hybrids might be an okay step. We will see if they are serious with the new Aviator. Less then a 30 mile range and they are not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 No - the business model is to build vehicles that can be sold at a profit while you invest in new products and keep the existing products refreshed and maintain the infrastructure. It’s easy to build new clean sheet vehicles with investment capital but making a sustainable business is something else entirely and Tesla hasn’t come close to showing it can do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, msm859 said: ......Further, they are dragging the rest of the industry - sometimes kicking and screaming into the 21st century. BEV's are the future. Hopefully Ford is serious about getting in the game.... People said the same thing back in 1907 when the Anderson Electric Car Company announced the "Detroit Electric." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 hours ago, akirby said: The vehicles aren’t the problem - it’s the business model that doesn’t work. The vehicles are part of the problem, the way the 3 was designed makes it labor intensive and difficult to streamline production This video explains a lot of the problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) If Tesla has indeed been building the richest and most expensive trims for the past six months and can only squeak a small profit, then it stands to reason that building a cheaper trim mix would push Tesla back into losses. Many of those on the +300K list will be waiting years to get a $35K version of the 3. Edited January 3, 2019 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msm859 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, mackinaw said: People said the same thing back in 1907 when the Anderson Electric Car Company announced the "Detroit Electric." Yes we have come full circle. This time the technology favors electric. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msm859 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, akirby said: No - the business model is to build vehicles that can be sold at a profit while you invest in new products and keep the existing products refreshed and maintain the infrastructure. It’s easy to build new clean sheet vehicles with investment capital but making a sustainable business is something else entirely and Tesla hasn’t come close to showing it can do that. Building cars is a tough business. There has not been a successful entry in this field since 1941 - Jeep. Before that Chrysler - 1925. Tesla sold more cars in 4th quarter 2018 then all of 2017. 2018 saw a growth of 367% over 2017. I would say that is at least coming "close". If they could get the model Y out sales could really explode. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 hours ago, msm859 said: Building cars is a tough business. There has not been a successful entry in this field since 1941 - Jeep. Before that Chrysler - 1925. Tesla sold more cars in 4th quarter 2018 then all of 2017. 2018 saw a growth of 367% over 2017. I would say that is at least coming "close". If they could get the model Y out sales could really explode. The only way for sales to "explode" is to sell them for $35K and at that price they can't even turn a profit much less have enough profit to cover the ever increasing overhead costs and fund all the continuing R&D. They really should be charging $10K - $20K more per vehicle but then sales would drop too much. People like to look at sales but forget about profit. When they can generate enough profit to sustain production and R&D then I'll take them seriously. Until then they're just playing with house money. And that's exactly why the other mfrs aren't going all in on BEVs right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 11 hours ago, msm859 said: Well actually the business model is to build BEV's that people will buy - make them fast and good looking, add a super charger network to help with range anxiety. So far it has worked because no one else is close. Further, they are dragging the rest of the industry - sometimes kicking and screaming into the 21st century. BEV's are the future. Hopefully Ford is serious about getting in the game. Plug in hybrids might be an okay step. We will see if they are serious with the new Aviator. Less then a 30 mile range and they are not. The Aviator will necessarily hit at least a 30 mile range because that is what regulations in China require to be considered an electrified vehicle. But the Aviator is not about electrification for fuel economy like the Prius, nor is intended to be an econo box to comply with California's "zero" emissions vehicles regulations (like the Nissan Leaf). It exists only in the highest trim and is intended not really ever to be used in electric-only mode but to produce greatly-enhanced performance (600 ft/lb torque in a moderate displacement engine). It is one of the reasons that I expect Aviators will fly off the shelf at Lincoln stores. I just hope Ford/Lincoln will be able to avoid the first-year supply shortage that has so bedeviled the Navigator, something that has frustrated Lincoln dealerships to no end... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Gurgeh said: The Aviator will necessarily hit at least a 30 mile range because that is what regulations in China require to be considered an electrified vehicle. But the Aviator is not about electrification for fuel economy like the Prius, nor is intended to be an econo box to comply with California's "zero" emissions vehicles regulations (like the Nissan Leaf). It exists only in the highest trim and is intended not really ever to be used in electric-only mode but to produce greatly-enhanced performance (600 ft/lb torque in a moderate displacement engine). It is one of the reasons that I expect Aviators will fly off the shelf at Lincoln stores. I just hope Ford/Lincoln will be able to avoid the first-year supply shortage that has so bedeviled the Navigator, something that has frustrated Lincoln dealerships to no end... And turn a nice profit! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 hours ago, msm859 said: Building cars is a tough business. There has not been a successful entry in this field since 1941 - Jeep. Before that Chrysler - 1925. Tesla sold more cars in 4th quarter 2018 then all of 2017. 2018 saw a growth of 367% over 2017. I would say that is at least coming "close". If they could get the model Y out sales could really explode. Tesla is planning to bring out a full EV pickup truck too. That will be a game changer. Remains to be seen if they manage to do that before the incumbents (Ford, GM, FCA, Nissan, Toyota) and before competing EV makers like Rivian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Tesla is planning to bring out a full EV pickup truck too. That will be a game changer. Remains to be seen if they manage to do that before the incumbents (Ford, GM, FCA, Nissan, Toyota) and before competing EV makers like Rivian. That's nice. Can they sell it at a profit? If Ford can build a BEV F150 then the standard F150 pays for the vehicle itself and all the overhead, so if the price difference between the ICE drivetrain and the BEV batteries and motors is, say, $10K then they can charge $10K more than a standard F150 and make just as much profit as the standard F150. That is a HUGE advantage that volume mfrs have that Tesla and Rivian don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msm859 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 53 minutes ago, Gurgeh said: The Aviator will necessarily hit at least a 30 mile range because that is what regulations in China require to be considered an electrified vehicle. But the Aviator is not about electrification for fuel economy like the Prius, nor is intended to be an econo box to comply with California's "zero" emissions vehicles regulations (like the Nissan Leaf). It exists only in the highest trim and is intended not really ever to be used in electric-only mode but to produce greatly-enhanced performance (600 ft/lb torque in a moderate displacement engine). It is one of the reasons that I expect Aviators will fly off the shelf at Lincoln stores. I just hope Ford/Lincoln will be able to avoid the first-year supply shortage that has so bedeviled the Navigator, something that has frustrated Lincoln dealerships to no end... Sorry but I want to have my cake and eat it too. Performance AND economy. 4 out of 5 days my wife drives less then 30 miles per day. I want her to be able to be all electric on those days. If Ford wants a grand slam they need to reach both parameters - otherwise they are being short sighted. It should be intended/designed to be able to be realistically driven in electric only mode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, msm859 said: Sorry but I want to have my cake and eat it too. Performance AND economy. 4 out of 5 days my wife drives less then 30 miles per day. I want her to be able to be all electric on those days. If Ford wants a grand slam they need to reach both parameters - otherwise they are being short sighted. It should be intended/designed to be able to be realistically driven in electric only mode. It definitely has electric only mode so no worries there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, rperez817 said: Tesla is planning to bring out a full EV pickup truck too. That will be a game changer. Remains to be seen if they manage to do that before the incumbents (Ford, GM, FCA, Nissan, Toyota) and before competing EV makers like Rivian. This will be a premium-priced, designer truck for the privileged few. It will change no games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assimilator Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) Ford just doesn't have any BEV products to pass judgment on, but they are coming. I think the trick for them is making them more affordable than Tesla while still being special and profitable. It's an expensive undertaking for a company that has never done it before. They are certainly taking a page out of Tesla's book with a ground-up BEV platform instead of Ford's typical strategy of retrofitting. I think it should give everybody but Tesla a run for its money, although things are likely to change on our way to Mach E. Ford could still shine in BEVs, but I think their strength will be in their F-150 BEV. Ford will almost certainly have their own BEV Truck before Tesla puts theirs on the market. Ford and Farley in particular seem to understand the importance of making exciting BEVs like Tesla, it DEFINITELY wasn't under Fields who largely phoned it in on the C-EV (before it became Mach-E in a major redesign). Edited January 3, 2019 by Assimilator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blwnsmoke Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, msm859 said: Sorry but I want to have my cake and eat it too. Performance AND economy. 4 out of 5 days my wife drives less then 30 miles per day. I want her to be able to be all electric on those days. If Ford wants a grand slam they need to reach both parameters - otherwise they are being short sighted. It should be intended/designed to be able to be realistically driven in electric only mode. Completely agree. We will be replacing my wife's Explorer in a few years. Her commute to work is 24 miles each way. If she can get to work on electric only, plug in, and 9 hours later, unplug and get home with zero gas used.. that is a huge win. Then the performance aspect when on the highway and needing the power to merge or pass etc. I want both.. 40 miles would be ideal but a true 30 would work for our daily commutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I really think a 30 mile range plug in hybrid version of a high volume vehicle will be the ticket for the next 10 years. They're orders of magnitude cheaper to make than a dedicated BEV because they share 95% of the components with a regular production model and production can be tailored to demand very easily. You get the benefits of full EV for short commuting with no range anxiety and in some cases super performance to boot. They won't be as flashy but they'll make money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Assimilator said: Ford just doesn't have any BEV products to pass judgment on, but they are coming. I think the trick for them is making them more affordable than Tesla while still being special and profitable. It's an expensive undertaking for a company that has never done it before. They are certainly taking a page out of Tesla's book with a ground-up BEV platform instead of Ford's typical strategy of retrofitting. I think it should give everybody but Tesla a run for its money, although things are likely to change on our way to Mach E. Ford could still shine in BEVs, but I think their strength will be in their F-150 BEV. Ford will almost certainly have their own BEV Truck before Tesla puts theirs on the market. Ford and Farley in particular seem to understand the importance of making exciting BEVs like Tesla, it DEFINITELY wasn't under Fields who largely phoned it in on the C-EV (before it became Mach-E in a major redesign). I could see Tesla showing a truck before Ford, as they tend to put on a big show well before they're ready, but not producing one for sale. Remember, they also have the Model Y to deal with before they even get to a truck. 45 minutes ago, akirby said: I really think a 30 mile range plug in hybrid version of a high volume vehicle will be the ticket for the next 10 years. They're orders of magnitude cheaper to make than a dedicated BEV because they share 95% of the components with a regular production model and production can be tailored to demand very easily. You get the benefits of full EV for short commuting with no range anxiety and in some cases super performance to boot. They won't be as flashy but they'll make money. Heck, that would get me to or from work (it's 30-miles each way), which would (theoretically) mean half the gas used... Edited January 3, 2019 by rmc523 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, rmc523 said: Heck, that would get me to or from work (it's 30-miles each way), which would (theoretically) mean half the gas used... Both ways if you charge at work (assuming the charger isn't blocked by some idiot in a humongous pickup). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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