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Tesla has over 3,000 Model 3 vehicles left in inventory in the US


silvrsvt

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17 hours ago, jpd80 said:

So......what's happening to all those buyers who are on the order list, are they now getting cold feet?

Tesla's press release interestingly said this:

Our Q4 Model 3 deliveries were limited to mid- and higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.

If they had 300,000 or whatever pre-orders, and they haven't made near that many yet, how are so many from new customers, and not reservation holders?  Are they not fulfilling reservations before moving to new ones?  Or is it just because of build mix - meaning they skipped a big chunk of reservation holders that want base models that aren't being made yet?

Edited by rmc523
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12 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Tesla shares plunge as price cuts signal a ceiling for costlier models

https://www.autonews.com/retail/tesla-shares-plunge-price-cuts-signal-ceiling-costlier-models

 

Seems weird that the market is freaking out that they split the difference of the $4k reduction in credits.  I'm willing this has been planned since the beginning of last year.

 

5 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Tesla's press release interestingly said this:

Our Q4 Model 3 deliveries were limited to mid- and higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.

If they had 300,000 or whatever pre-orders, and they haven't made near that many yet, how are so many from new customers, and not reservation holders?  Are they not fulfilling reservations before moving to new ones?  Or is it just because of build mix - meaning they skipped a big chunk of reservation holders that want base models that aren't being made yet?

 

The thought process is that the reservation holders are waiting for the theoretical "$35k" car that has yet to materialize.  They aren't being bypassed, that just have not pulled the trigger themselves.

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31 minutes ago, Assimilator said:

 Tesla is redefining absolutely everything, that's pretty exciting to me because the American car industry badly needed it and I'm glad Ford is squirming, they need a REALLY sharp kick in the ass.  Innovation is otherwise painfully slow and incremental (particularly in Detroit).  

Well said Assimilator sir. Tesla is not only giving all the incumbent automakers a butt kicking. They have also almost single handedly demonstrated that cars designed, engineered, and assembled in the U.S. by an American company can get major respect from reviewers and customers around the world.

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1 hour ago, msm859 said:

The tax credit dropped by $3750 on the Tesla and they lowered  prices by $2,000.  I doubt a $1750 increase on the S or X will make any difference.  On the 3 it might but that still only represents @3% increase.  Tesla may be in a position to lower prices at each reduction in tax credit dependent on demand here and abroad.

 

It's not the actual net price.   MFRs are using the tax credit to subsidize lease payments.   A reduction of $3750 raises the monthly payment on a 36 month lease by $100+.

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19 minutes ago, Anthony said:

 

Seems weird that the market is freaking out that they split the difference of the $4k reduction in credits.  I'm willing this has been planned since the beginning of last year.

 

This is the same market that is punishing Ford stock because they don't know what they are supposed to doing in 2025-not exactly the most intellegent people out there. 

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3 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Well said Assimilator sir. Tesla is not only giving all the incumbent automakers a butt kicking. They have also almost single handedly demonstrated that cars designed, engineered, and assembled in the U.S. by an American company can get major respect from reviewers and customers around the world.

All they've done is implement the Gotta have it Apple style of marketing-They aren't keeping products up-to-date and once more players are on the market like Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, they are going to be feeling the heat. 

Lots of smoke and mirrors so far. 

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Keep in mind you can't lease the Model 3 either, not that there is a huge price advantage to leasing a Tesla but it makes financing much more convenient and the risk lower.  I will only lease a car, especially when it comes to a Tesla.  

I would like a Model X, but it's hard to get around the fact it's WAY more expensive to lease than the Aviator I'm likely to spring for anyway.  Although I'm probably just going to get the Nautilus considering how uncertain Aviator ordering and delivery will be by the time this lease is up.  I've never had a new model Lincoln order that wasn't delayed 6 months (2011 MKX, 2013 MKZ, 2016 MKX)  from the original estimate.  

Edited by Assimilator
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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

Tesla's press release interestingly said this:

Our Q4 Model 3 deliveries were limited to mid- and higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.

If they had 300,000 or whatever pre-orders, and they haven't made near that many yet, how are so many from new customers, and not reservation holders?  Are they not fulfilling reservations before moving to new ones?  Or is it just because of build mix - meaning they skipped a big chunk of reservation holders that want base models that aren't being made yet?

Tesla is making the more expensive Model 3 variants with bigger batteries and/or with dual motors. If you are on the reservation list, and you want the cheap version with single motor and tiny battery - the "$35k Tesla" that may never be made, you have the option of keep waiting. So basically, Tesla is finding plenty of people who never put down a deposit willing to pay $50~60k for a Model 3 right now.

I live in West LA which is like the epic center of EV adoption so I know a lot of  Model 3 owners just right off the top of my head without going thru my "friends list". Most of them never was on the reservation list for their Model 3. They just ordered it online after the car was launched and got their cars in a matter of weeks. Although all of them have experienced horrendous customer service... Tesla's boutique infrastructure is not scalable to service high volume business model. That is going to hobble them going forward unless they change how they sale and distribute cars.

My next door neighbor ordered his (2nd) Tesla in August 2018. Tesla emailed him in October to come pickup the car at the delivery center. When he showed up, big surprise... there was no car. Tesla called him 2 weeks later to pick up again, and this time the car was there but it had a cracked rim - yes, a brand new car with a cracked wheel so obviously no one did a pre-delivery QC check at the factory or at the delivery center like any car dealer will do.  In early November, he finally got the car trucked to his house but there was no paperwork. The car was already registered (DMV paperwork attached to windshield) but he never signed the lease. He called Tesla daily to get them to FedEx the lease paper like they promised to no avail. My neighbor decided to insured the car anyway and started driving it... this went on for another 6 weeks until right before Christmas when he finally got the lease paperwork. Basically if he didn't call, Tesla wouldn't even noticed they gave my neighbor the car for free.

My neighbor is a repeat Tesla customer. He said the first one 3 years ago was smooth sailing with a single Tesla customer service agent handling everything and getting things done. He liked the experience so much that he ordered another one 3 years later and the experience was completely opposite. Every time he called, he had to speak with a different agent that didn't know anything about his case and nothing was done properly. It was like calling the cable company he said... ?

Edited by bzcat
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9 minutes ago, bzcat said:

My neighbor is a repeat Tesla customer. He said the first one 3 years ago was smooth sailing with a single Tesla customer service agent handling everything and getting things done. He liked the experience so much that he ordered another one 3 years later and the experience was completely opposite. Every time he called, he had to speak with a different agent that didn't know anything about his case and nothing was done properly. It was like calling the cable company he said... ?

 

And this is where the mainstream mfrs are going to excel when they start making more BEVs.  There is a gi-normous difference between making a few thousand of something and hundreds of thousands and multiple models and generations.

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12 minutes ago, bzcat said:

My neighbor is a repeat Tesla customer. He said the first one 3 years ago was smooth sailing with a single Tesla customer service agent handling everything and getting things done. He liked the experience so much that he ordered another one 3 years later and the experience was completely opposite. Every time he called, he had to speak with a different agent that didn't know anything about his case and nothing was done properly. It was like calling the cable company he said... ?

It's easy to give that kind of service when you're selling a few thousand units a year.  Much different when you're selling a few thousand a week

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55 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

All they've done is implement the Gotta have it Apple style of marketing-They aren't keeping products up-to-date and once more players are on the market like Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, they are going to be feeling the heat. 

While competition in the EV market will intensify in the next few years, Tesla will still do very well. Tesla accounts for ALL of the increase in U.S. EV sales in 2018. No other automaker has done more to make EVs desirable to consumers that wouldn't otherwise consider them. 

Also, it's not true at all that Tesla isn't keeping products up-to-date. On the contrary, Tesla is far ahead of incumbent automakers. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said "the auto industry’s inability to match Tesla’s over-the-air software update capability could make them “highly vulnerable to obsolescence”. https://electrek.co/2017/07/19/tesla-software-updates-vs-auto-industry/

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10 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

While competition in the EV market will intensify in the next few years, Tesla will still do very well. Tesla accounts for ALL of the increase in U.S. EV sales in 2018. No other automaker has done more to make EVs desirable to consumers that wouldn't otherwise consider them. 

Also, it's not true at all that Tesla isn't keeping products up-to-date. On the contrary, Tesla is far ahead of incumbent automakers. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said "the auto industry’s inability to match Tesla’s over-the-air software update capability could make them “highly vulnerable to obsolescence”. https://electrek.co/2017/07/19/tesla-software-updates-vs-auto-industry/

Looks wise, aside from a minor update to the front of the S, it's exactly the same as when it debuted in what, 2012?

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30 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

It's easy to give that kind of service when you're selling a few thousand units a year.  Much different when you're selling a few thousand a week

 

Yeah, but the service I get still sucks for my Fords who sells thousands per week.  ?

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Somebody has not only drank the kool-aid, they've taken a bath in it.

 

Ford has been doing over the air wi-fi automatic software updates for several months now.  It's easy to do things when you're new and small.  Let's see how it goes over the next couple of years.

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It took several years for Ford to implement OTA auto-updating, although they had promised it even sooner with MFT, but that never worked.  Like most of the auto-industry, Ford is just exceptionally bad at software development.  They don't understand it, they don't have the talent for it, they don't know how to coordinate regulations and safety with design and engineering,  they haven't invested the money and resources they need, and so-forth.  It's just a painful slog of trial and error and they will never be able to catch up to Tesla or other tech-startups when it comes to interface design which focus far more attention on it.  I think what worries me most about Ford's future is that they are great engine designers, that's where they tend to lead the industry (from my perspective anyway), but in a future of EVs, Ford has to find other ways to standout.  So either Ford dies on the ICE hill with big trucks, vans and and rugged utilities,  or they also find a way to excel at next-gen propulsion.  Ford is in no danger of challenging Tesla anytime soon, even with Mach E, but they have some interesting angles to take which makes sense for them.  There is still plenty of time and room to innovate and I know Ford is hustling and innovating in ways people don't typically see as innovative (Hybrids).  

Edited by Assimilator
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How hard is it to plug your phone into the USB, open the "MFT" app on your phone and update the damn car stereo.  That's how I would design it, at least get a functional system going before you mess with all this fancy OTA stuff.

 

It shouldn't be so difficult.

 

Edited by probowler
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1 hour ago, Anthony said:

 

Yeah, but the service I get still sucks for my Fords who sells thousands per week.  ?

My point was it's easier to give great service if you sell 5 a week.  Sell 500 a week, you can't be as "hands on" with service (I just picked random numbers).

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

Ford has been doing over the air wi-fi automatic software updates for several months now. 

Yes sir. Toyota, JLR, GM, FCA have that capability too, wi-fi and/or via a DCM. But they are limited to non safety critical functions like infotainment, navigation maps, etc. Tesla can apply OTA updates that modify and improve braking, powertrain, and steering/chassis operation. Tesla is way ahead of incumbent automakers there.

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58 minutes ago, Assimilator said:

It took several years for Ford to implement OTA auto-updating, although they had promised it even sooner with MFT, but that never worked.  Like most of the auto-industry, Ford is just exceptionally bad at software development.  They don't understand it, they don't have the talent for it, they don't know how to coordinate regulations and safety with design and engineering,  they haven't invested the money and resources they need, and so-forth.  It's just a painful slog of trial and error and they will never be able to catch up to Tesla or other tech-startups when it comes to interface design which focus far more attention on it.  I think what worries me most about Ford's future is that they are great engine designers, that's where they tend to lead the industry (from my perspective anyway), but in a future of EVs, Ford has to find other ways to standout.  So either Ford dies on the ICE hill with big trucks, vans and and rugged utilities,  or they also find a way to excel at next-gen propulsion.  Ford is in no danger of challenging Tesla anytime soon, even with Mach E, but they have some interesting angles to take which makes sense for them.  There is still plenty of time and room to innovate and I know Ford is hustling and innovating in ways people don't typically see as innovative (Hybrids).  

Its funny you, play up Ford's supposed weaknesses, but Telsa has other weaknesses they need to address, that Ford already has a handle on.

The thing is that running an automotive company is quite different from running a tech startup, which Tesla is in my eyes and have a far greated boom/bust ratio then the "regular" automotive industry does.
The tech industry is great at recycling items that are "faster" then last generation, without much R&D effort on their end or talking those products up to make stock prices go up. 

Ford doesn't need to challenge Tesla to stay in business- Telsa has the uphill climb selling a product that as it stands now, most people find impractical for their uses (recharge time vs 5 minutes or less at a gas station being the primary one)...selling the most Sedans in a marketplace that has seen at least 10-15% losses year after year is much like athelete being fastest runner at the special oyplmics.  

 

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41 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Its funny you, play up Ford's supposed weaknesses, but Telsa has other weaknesses they need to address, that Ford already has a handle on. 

Ford and Tesla have their own strengths and weaknesses. Each can learn valuable lessons from the other. As the only 2 U.S. automakers that have never gone bankrupt, I hope that both Ford and Tesla help make the U.S. the leader in a global automotive industry that is rapidly moving toward EVs and AVs. To me as an American, Tesla and Ford plus GM are the "home team" and I want the home team to win.

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