Caddy to show off XT6 at Detroit

[akirby]

I don’t remember Ford helping dealers consolidate stand alone Lincoln dealers.  There weren’t that many to start with and I thought Ford was trying to get some of the less successful ones to close.  

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

I don’t remember Ford helping dealers consolidate stand alone Lincoln dealers.  There weren’t that many to start with and I thought Ford was trying to get some of the less successful ones to close.  

I don't know if they "helped" them, but most standalone ones closed, and many merged in with Ford stores.

[Gurgeh]

1 minute ago, rmc523 said:

I don't know if they "helped" them, but most standalone ones closed, and many merged in with Ford stores.

As I remember, it happened around the time they put a bullet in Mercury's head. So "Lincoln Mercury" dealerships lost their last name and much of their volume. I too understand the reasoning at the time: consolidation so the brand could survive in the short run. But in the longer run Lincoln needs to be able to stand on its own to thrive.

[rmc523]

7 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

As I remember, it happened around the time they put a bullet in Mercury's head. So "Lincoln Mercury" dealerships lost their last name and much of their volume. I too understand the reasoning at the time: consolidation so the brand could survive in the short run. But in the longer run Lincoln needs to be able to stand on its own to thrive.

Yup exactly.  I remember a local dealer was a Lincoln Mercury dealer, with a separate Ford dealer down the road, and they wound up closing the Ford dealer's separate building and moved in with the Lincoln dealer, and that's how they remain today.  They just recently became a Black Label dealer too, which I think used to require being a standalone dealer.  It'll be nice to see standalone Lincoln dealers again, though.

[Gurgeh]

1 minute ago, rmc523 said:

Yup exactly.  I remember a local dealer was a Lincoln Mercury dealer, with a separate Ford dealer down the road, and they wound up closing the Ford dealer's separate building and moved in with the Lincoln dealer, and that's how they remain today.  They just recently became a Black Label dealer too, which I think used to require being a standalone dealer.  It'll be nice to see standalone Lincoln dealers again, though.

My dealer is a stand-alone Lincoln dealership (only one in the DC metro area). They used to be a Lincoln Mercury dealership. At the time Mercury died the owner of the dealership was head of the Lincoln dealership association and he refused to consolidate. Actually, it would have been difficult as he didn't own a Ford dealership -- there was one owned by someone else close by -- so more he would likely have had to sell his business to that dealership. It was initially tough, but now his Lincoln sales are shooting through the roof. As for Black Label, previously anyone could be a BL dealer if they paid Lincoln $100,000, invested in upgrading their Lincoln showroom (they must have a separate lounge for Black Label customers), and met other criteria. But just within the last few weeks Lincoln adopted a new policy. Now, to become a Black Label dealership you have to be stand alone. Existing Ford-Lincoln dealers who are BL were grandfathered. My dealer is real happy with this new rule, as he is one of only two or three Black Label dealers in the region and now there can't be any more until more dealerships spin off their Lincoln business to stand alone. The demand for BL Navigators is so strong it is the only kind he orders. He expects huge sales of Black Label Aviators as well.

[akirby]

To be clear though, I don’t think Ford had anything to do with any Lincoln dealerships merging with Ford stores.  They did that on their own.  I was only challenging the point about Ford helping or directing the consolidations.   

[msm859]

3 hours ago, rmc523 said:

A couple points here - Explorer is likely to push further north with the new model to begin with, AND more importantly, both models will come with hybridization, which hasn't been available at all, which is likely to add to the pricepoint.  Furthermore, with Explorer reportedly only getting a regular hybrid setup, and Aviator getting a more expensive PHEV setup only, that will also add to the pricing gap between the two, pushing Aviator even higher.  I don't see a scenario where Aviator won't top out in the 80s........

 

Ford's hybrid system on the Aviator appears to be pretty simple with the combo torque converter/electric motor between the engine and tranny. The batter will probably be around 18 kWh to get the 50km range.  Battery prices have come down so the additional costs will be a lot less then $10k - of course they will charge what they believe market will bear.  Current estimate on the Chevy Bolt is $205 per kWh.  I am sticking with in the $70'Ks for the Grand Touring Black Label.

[rmc523]

14 minutes ago, msm859 said:

Ford's hybrid system on the Aviator appears to be pretty simple with the combo torque converter/electric motor between the engine and tranny. The batter will probably be around 18 kWh to get the 50km range.  Battery prices have come down so the additional costs will be a lot less then $10k - of course they will charge what they believe market will bear.  Current estimate on the Chevy Bolt is $205 per kWh.  I am sticking with in the $70'Ks for the Grand Touring Black Label.

Guess we'll just have to wait and see!

[msm859]

25 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Guess we'll just have to wait and see!

Agreed.  Will they release pricing when the order bank opens or later when they start production?

[bzcat]

Size and power wise, Aviator seems aimed at BMW X7 and Mercedes GLS... $80k is about middle of the range for GLS.

 

Here is a quick comparison of MSRP at Mercedes:

GLE350 (3.0 V6 turbo) starts at $56k

GLE550e (3.0 V6 turbo PHEV) starts at $67k (+$11k vs. non PHEV GLE350)

~~~

GLS450 (3.0 V6 turbo) starts at $70k (+$14k vs. smaller 2 row GLE)

GLS550 (4.7 V8 turbo) starts at $96k (+$26k vs. V6)

================================================

Another example with Porsche:

Cayenne base (3.0 V6 turbo) starts at $66k

Cayenne e-hybrid (3.0 V6 turbo PHEV) starts at $80k (+$14k vs. non PHEV)

=================================================

Here is how Lincoln stack up:

Nautilus 2.7EB AWD starts at $47k (I'm ignoring the 2.0 I4 and FWD because not comparable to Mercedes or Porsche)

Nautilus 2.7EB AWD Black Label starts at $59k

~~~

Aviator 3.0EB AWD starts at $???

Aviator 3.0EB PHEV starts at $???

~~~

Navigator 3.5EB AWD starts at $76k

Observation1 : Nautilus MSRP ends roughly where GLE350 and Cayenne MSRP start despite them being about the same size.

Observation 2: Since Nautilus 2.7 AWD starts about $10k below GLE, I will assume Aviator AWD will start about $10k below GLS.

Observation 3: Mercedes charges premium $11k for PHEV on GLE. Or an unconscionable $26k for the V8 on GLS. Since Lincoln is not doing a V8, we have to assume (and the powertrain specs back this up) that PHEV is intended to compete with the V8 model, I think it's not unreasonable to assume the premium over 3.0 EB will be somewhere between $11k and $26k. Porsche charges $14k premium for PHEV so that gives us another data point.

Observation 4: Probably not out of bounds to assume Aviator PHEV (which will probably be fully loaded) starting price will be a little higher than Navigator base.

So if you combine all 4 observations and deductive reasoning, you end up with:

Aviator 3.0EB AWD starts at about $60k

Aviator 3.0EB PHEV starts at about $78k

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by bzcat

[msm859]

1 hour ago, bzcat said:

Size and power wise, Aviator seems aimed at BMW X7 and Mercedes GLS... $80k is about middle of the range for GLS.

 

Here is a quick comparison of MSRP at Mercedes:

GLE350 (3.0 V6 turbo) starts at $56k

GLE550e (3.0 V6 turbo PHEV) starts at $67k (+$11k vs. non PHEV GLE350)

~~~

GLS450 (3.0 V6 turbo) starts at $70k (+$14k vs. smaller 2 row GLE)

GLS550 (4.7 V8 turbo) starts at $96k (+$26k vs. V6)

================================================

Another example with Porsche:

Cayenne base (3.0 V6 turbo) starts at $66k

Cayenne e-hybrid (3.0 V6 turbo PHEV) starts at $80k (+$14k vs. non PHEV)

=================================================

Here is how Lincoln stack up:

Nautilus 2.7EB AWD starts at $47k (I'm ignoring the 2.0 I4 and FWD because not comparable to Mercedes or Porsche)

Nautilus 2.7EB AWD Black Label starts at $59k

~~~

Aviator 3.0EB AWD starts at $???

Aviator 3.0EB PHEV starts at $???

~~~

Navigator 3.5EB AWD starts at $76k

Observation1 : Nautilus MSRP ends roughly where GLE350 and Cayenne MSRP start despite them being about the same size.

Observation 2: Since Nautilus 2.7 AWD starts about $10k below GLE, I will assume Aviator AWD will start about $10k below GLS.

Observation 3: Mercedes charges premium $11k for PHEV on GLE. Or an unconscionable $26k for the V8 on GLS. Since Lincoln is not doing a V8, we have to assume (and the powertrain specs back this up) that PHEV is intended to compete with the V8 model, I think it's not unreasonable to assume the premium over 3.0 EB will be somewhere between $11k and $26k. Porsche charges $14k premium for PHEV so that gives us another data point.

Observation 4: Probably not out of bounds to assume Aviator PHEV (which will probably be fully loaded) starting price will be a little higher than Navigator base.

So if you combine all 4 observations and deductive reasoning, you end up with:

Aviator 3.0EB AWD starts at about $60k

Aviator 3.0EB PHEV starts at about $78k

 

 

 

 

 

Good analysis although independent of size I believe the competition is really the Audi Q7, Volvo XC90 etc

. https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1120111_2020-lincoln-aviator-ready-to-make-a-mark-in-the-luxury-market

The Navigator starts at $73k.  So I can't see the Grand Touring "starting" at above that.  Now with Black Label will it pass $80K?  That is the big question.  Right now Lincoln has the Nautilus that can top out @$66k and the Navigator @$100k.  Half way between those does hit the $80K's.  Remember Lincoln still does not have the panache to demand the premium of a Mercedes or BMW.  We will soon know.

[jasonj80]

1 hour ago, bzcat said:

Aviator 3.0EB AWD starts at about $60k

Aviator 3.0EB PHEV starts at about $78k

Add another $1000 for destination and don't forget the Aviator will most likely get the full $7500 Tax Rebate as its based on battery size. The Aviator option packages are also going to be pretty expensive, though a few might be standard on the PHEV (Co-Pilot360 Plus, Elements Plus, Convenience?).

Aviator Convenience Package: Head-Up Display, Phone As A Key, Wireless Charging Pad, and Soft Close Doors with Light Touch Handle 

Aviator Luxury Package: Perfect Position Seats (30-Way) with Active Motion, Revel™ Ultima™ 3D Audio System with 28 Speakers , and Manual Rear Door Sunshades

Dynamic Handling Package: Adaptive Suspension with Road Preview, Air Glide Suspension with Dynamic Lower Entry, and Adaptive Steering

Elements Package Plus: first-row heated/ventilated seats, heated steering wheel, heated/ventilated second-row seats, and heated VisioBlade™ wipers

Illumination Package: Adaptive Pixel LED Headlamps, Lincoln Dynamic Signature Lighting (LED Daytime Running Lamps - Sequential On/Off), Lincoln Lit Star

Lincoln Co-Pilot360™ Plus: Traffic Jam Assist (Adaptive Cruise Control, Stop-and-Go, and Traffic Sign Recognition), Evasive Steering Assist, Reverse Brake Assist, and Active Park Assist Plus

FREE-STANDING PACKAGES AND OPTIONS

OPTIONAL

Panoramic Moonroof

Trailer Tow Package includes 4-pin & 7-pin connectors, class IV hitch & wiring, BLIS w/ CTA & Trailer Tow (when properly equipped), Smart Trailer Tow, and Trailer Sway Control

Lincoln Play (Late Availability)

Loaded it is coming close if not crossing 90K before any of the PHEV rebates. 

 

[msm859]

3 hours ago, jasonj80 said:

Add another $1000 for destination and don't forget the Aviator will most likely get the full $7500 Tax Rebate as its based on battery size. The Aviator option packages are also going to be pretty expensive, though a few might be standard on the PHEV (Co-Pilot360 Plus, Elements Plus, Convenience?).

Aviator Convenience Package: Head-Up Display, Phone As A Key, Wireless Charging Pad, and Soft Close Doors with Light Touch Handle 

Aviator Luxury Package: Perfect Position Seats (30-Way) with Active Motion, Revel™ Ultima™ 3D Audio System with 28 Speakers , and Manual Rear Door Sunshades

Dynamic Handling Package: Adaptive Suspension with Road Preview, Air Glide Suspension with Dynamic Lower Entry, and Adaptive Steering

Elements Package Plus: first-row heated/ventilated seats, heated steering wheel, heated/ventilated second-row seats, and heated VisioBlade™ wipers

Illumination Package: Adaptive Pixel LED Headlamps, Lincoln Dynamic Signature Lighting (LED Daytime Running Lamps - Sequential On/Off), Lincoln Lit Star

Lincoln Co-Pilot360™ Plus: Traffic Jam Assist (Adaptive Cruise Control, Stop-and-Go, and Traffic Sign Recognition), Evasive Steering Assist, Reverse Brake Assist, and Active Park Assist Plus

FREE-STANDING PACKAGES AND OPTIONS

OPTIONAL

Panoramic Moonroof

Trailer Tow Package includes 4-pin & 7-pin connectors, class IV hitch & wiring, BLIS w/ CTA & Trailer Tow (when properly equipped), Smart Trailer Tow, and Trailer Sway Control

Lincoln Play (Late Availability)

Loaded it is coming close if not crossing 90K before any of the PHEV rebates. 

 

Every option you have listed will cost Ford less then $10,000 more then it currently costs them to build the Explorer Platinum that they sell for $54k.  There is zero chance that a loaded Aviator approaches $90k

[Assimilator]

A full-loaded Grand Touring Aviator is going to be closer to $90K than $80K.  Just look at Continental Black Label pricing and add the SUV and PHEV tax and you should have a pretty good idea on how far things are likely to go.  This is going to be a very expensive vehicle, you won't start outside of the $80s.  The base Aviator...really no idea, probably in mid $60s where Explorer will leave off (Yes Explorer is going to get very expensive too).  

Edited December 19, 2018 by Assimilator

[msm859]

2 hours ago, Assimilator said:

A full-loaded Grand Touring Aviator is going to be closer to $90K than $80K.  Just look at Continental Black Label pricing and add the SUV and PHEV tax and you should have a pretty good idea on how far things are likely to go.  This is going to be a very expensive vehicle, you won't start outside of the $80s.  The base Aviator...really no idea, probably in mid $60s where Explorer will leave off (Yes Explorer is going to get very expensive too).  

A loaded Range Rover Sport PHEV is $89k or a loaded Porsche Cayenne PHEV just over $90k. A loaded Lincoln Aviator will not be close to $90k.  I predict you will be able to get a Black Label Grand Touring Aviator in the $70k's.

[jasonj80]

6 hours ago, msm859 said:

A loaded Range Rover Sport PHEV is $89k or a loaded Porsche Cayenne PHEV just over $90k. A loaded Lincoln Aviator will not be close to $90k.  I predict you will be able to get a Black Label Grand Touring Aviator in the $70k's.

Those start near that price, Price the Porsche like the Lincoln loaded up with massaging seats, HUD, Soft closing doors, adaptive suspension you're at over 120K, and the Range Rover is in the high 90's or just over 100K if fully loaded. The Aviator is also larger than those models and will be considerably faster than those. Also are you taking high 70's before or after the Plugin rebate? You might squeeze into a no option grand reserve for under 80K after all federal and state plug in rebates before taxes. A loaded Q7 without hybridization is in the High 80's. 

I really think you're going to be disappointed with the pricing in general for this model (and probably the Explorer as well).  The Aviator is going to be really expensive for some, people are going to have some sticker shock with the Explorer as well. Many consumers are going to be regulated into the used car market in the next 5 years. Also the new Corsair will start a in the same ball park (Probably a 1K-2K increase) as the current MKC but the high end will be close to 60K sticker. Ford is no longer chasing volume with Lincoln. 

[msm859]

31 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:

Those start near that price, Price the Porsche like the Lincoln loaded up with massaging seats, HUD, Soft closing doors, adaptive suspension you're at over 120K, and the Range Rover is in the high 90's or just over 100K if fully loaded. The Aviator is also larger than those models and will be considerably faster than those. Also are you taking high 70's before or after the Plugin rebate? You might squeeze into a no option grand reserve for under 80K after all federal and state plug in rebates before taxes. A loaded Q7 without hybridization is in the High 80's. 

I really think you're going to be disappointed with the pricing in general for this model (and probably the Explorer as well).  The Aviator is going to be really expensive for some, people are going to have some sticker shock with the Explorer as well. Many consumers are going to be regulated into the used car market in the next 5 years. Also the new Corsair will start a in the same ball park (Probably a 1K-2K increase) as the current MKC but the high end will be close to 60K sticker. Ford is no longer chasing volume with Lincoln. 

The Range Rover Sport PHEV starts at $78,600.  The Aviator GT will start for less then that.  They could start for $10k less then that. Before any tax credits.  This same conversation is taking place in the Corvette Forum over pricing on the new C8 ME.  Some are predicting a starting price over $100k.  Also will not happen.  Not sure about your statement that Ford is no longer chasing volume with Lincoln.  I would say the exact opposite.  The new Navigator was to increase volume.  The Aviator is to really increase volume. They need to build up their reputation before they can demand European premiums.

[Assimilator]

If you think Lincoln is going to still underprice the competition (especially that much), you're mistaken.  

[akirby]

50 minutes ago, msm859 said:

The Range Rover Sport PHEV starts at $78,600.  The Aviator GT will start for less then that.  They could start for $10k less then that. Before any tax credits.  This same conversation is taking place in the Corvette Forum over pricing on the new C8 ME.  Some are predicting a starting price over $100k.  Also will not happen.  Not sure about your statement that Ford is no longer chasing volume with Lincoln.  I would say the exact opposite.  The new Navigator was to increase volume.  The Aviator is to really increase volume. They need to build up their reputation before they can demand European premiums.

 

They are building volume but they’re not chasing volume by underpricing.   Meaning you won’t see stripped down versions.

[Gurgeh]

44 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

They are building volume but they’re not chasing volume by underpricing.   Meaning you won’t see stripped down versions.

Yes, they are trying to build volume by building luxury (meaning expensive) cars people actually want to buy. This just might work. I mean, they've tried everything else... 

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, jasonj80 said:

I really think you're going to be disappointed with the pricing in general for this model (and probably the Explorer as well).  The Aviator is going to be really expensive for some, people are going to have some sticker shock with the Explorer as well. Many consumers are going to be regulated into the used car market in the next 5 years. Also the new Corsair will start a in the same ball park (Probably a 1K-2K increase) as the current MKC but the high end will be close to 60K sticker. Ford is no longer chasing volume with Lincoln. 

Isn't the Explorer Platinum already like $55k or so? I know the Sport is just south of $50...but I'd think the bread and butter of the market is going to be in the under $40K range for an XLT or whatever Explorer. 

[jasonj80]

Loaded Sport on the Window Sticker can be over $55K, Platinum can be $59K. A 4x4 202 XLT is almost $50K. 

Cars in general are going to get much more expensive over the next few model years, you have a lot of safety equipment being installed, steady increase in fuel economy standards on top of higher inflation numbers. 
 

2 hours ago, msm859 said:

The Range Rover Sport PHEV starts at $78,600.  The Aviator GT will start for less then that.  They could start for $10k less then that. Before any tax credits. 

You really think that a PHEV Aviator is going to sticker at the same price as a Nautilus Reserve with the 2.7L engine before rebates? 

Edited December 19, 2018 by jasonj80

[bzcat]

16 hours ago, msm859 said:

Good analysis although independent of size I believe the competition is really the Audi Q7, Volvo XC90 etc

. https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1120111_2020-lincoln-aviator-ready-to-make-a-mark-in-the-luxury-market

The Navigator starts at $73k.  So I can't see the Grand Touring "starting" at above that.  Now with Black Label will it pass $80K?  That is the big question.  Right now Lincoln has the Nautilus that can top out @$66k and the Navigator @$100k.  Half way between those does hit the $80K's.  Remember Lincoln still does not have the panache to demand the premium of a Mercedes or BMW.  We will soon know.

Q7 is in the same size range as Aviator and GLS. XC90 is about the same size as Q8/X5/GLE/Nautilus. But I think in practice, people shopping for a large 3-row SUV will look at them all.

Also Audi is working on a Q7 eTron PHEV using the same drivetrain as Porsche Cayenne eHybrid - 3.0 turbo PHEV, which if you will notice, means Q7 eTron will be almost exactly the same size, concept, and execution as Aviator PHEV.

As for starting price of Navigator, $73k is for RWD base model (the AWD base starts at $76k). And Aviator Grand Touring will be AWD and probably won't be available in base model trim. So I maintain that the starting price for Aviator Grand Touring will indeed be higher than Navigator's starting price.

[bzcat]

2 hours ago, msm859 said:

The Range Rover Sport PHEV starts at $78,600.  The Aviator GT will start for less then that.  They could start for $10k less then that. Before any tax credits.  This same conversation is taking place in the Corvette Forum over pricing on the new C8 ME.  Some are predicting a starting price over $100k.  Also will not happen.  Not sure about your statement that Ford is no longer chasing volume with Lincoln.  I would say the exact opposite.  The new Navigator was to increase volume.  The Aviator is to really increase volume. They need to build up their reputation before they can demand European premiums.

Not all PHEV are the same. You are comparing apples to oranges.

Range Rover Sport PHEV has 2.0 I4 turbo so it is MUCH less powerful than Aviator GT.

RRS P400e (the name for the PHEV) and Volvo XC90 T8 compete with other 2.0 I4 turbo PHEV like BMW X5 40e and the upcoming Mercedes GLE350e. These are intended as alternatives to V6 or I6 versions with similar power (and price). So they are in a different (sub)class. If you want to compere these to Aviator, it will be the regular 3.0 Ecoboost version, not the Grand Touring PHEV.

Aviator GT is more comparable to GLE550e and Porsche Cayenne S eHybrid (3.0 V6 turbo PHEV), -  they are considered alternatives to V8 versions of the same car. And so it will also be comparable to the actual V8 competitors without a plug, like GLS550 or upcoming X7 50i

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by bzcat

[msm859]

1 hour ago, jasonj80 said:

Loaded Sport on the Window Sticker can be over $55K, Platinum can be $59K. A 4x4 202 XLT is almost $50K. 

Cars in general are going to get much more expensive over the next few model years, you have a lot of safety equipment being installed, steady increase in fuel economy standards on top of higher inflation numbers. 
 

You really think that a PHEV Aviator is going to sticker at the same price as a Nautilus Reserve with the 2.7L engine before rebates? 

No.  I think a base Aviator will start in the $50k's.  I think a base PHEV Aviator will start in the $60k's