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Ford November 2018 Sales: Nautilus, Navigator, MKC and Expedition strong increase sales


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34 minutes ago, tbone said:

Trims could certainly have an impact on sales.  The Expedition and Nav are significantly more expensive than they used to be. 

At one time the new ATPs were $20K or $30K higher.  Not sure what they are not but they are significantly higher.

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Does anyone know what was discussed at Ford's meeting with investors this morning? I know they held press conference with investors right around the time the November sales were announced. I was wondering if anything was announced regarding: new products, what will happen to the plants and employees, etc.? I see articles online that MorganStanley analysts say Ford could do more layoffs than GM as part of costs reduction but nothing in particular as to how this morning's meeting went. Anyone knows?

May be best to start separate thread with this morning's meeting info and place a link here for me and others to continue on with that issue.

Edited by pffan1990
Added second paragraph.
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5 hours ago, Kev-Mo said:

Looks like Dodge RAM is stealing some F-series sales... 

December is the big Truck sales month, with small business owners looking at 'spend it or get taxed on it...' advice from their accountants.  We'll see if Ford F-series can regain dominance over Dodge... 

LOL.  Ram has dominance over nobody. Ford has better powertrain, better quality, better dependability, and arguably better styling than the RamArado.

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6 hours ago, tbone said:

It would be interesting to see what Expedition and Navigator could do if they weren’t capacity constrained. 

They're about to boost SUV production at KTP by 20%. Louisville Assembly is losing it's 3rd shift and will be sending people to KTP to support an increase in production.

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This is an interesting question, what effect will the presence of Ranger have on F Series sales?

Sure, there will be some bleed across from F150 but Ford is probably betting that number is relatively small, 2.7 V6 EB will make a compelling case for those fence sitters to stay with F150.....

Interesting times ahead..

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19 hours ago, Assimilator said:

MKX/Nautilus must be benefiting from incentives on the old and sales of the new, this might be the first time a Lincoln has cleared 3,000 sales this year.  

It is a near record. The MKX only slightly more in December 2016, a time when the newly designed vehicle was hitting its initial stride.

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It is interesting that analysts are seeing the Ford numbers as positive since the sales decline overall is less than they expected. It is really nice to see the Lincoln numbers, with an overall sales increase of 3.3% (up 17% for the crossover/SUVs -- poor sedans continue to swoon as is happening for everyone). For once, broadly positive news for them as they look ahead to two additional product launches in the next 12 months. Aviator mid-year and Corsair this time next year. I dug a little more into Lincoln's North America numbers and this is what I saw:

The particularly encouraging news is that the crossover/SUV strength is across the board, no longer being carried primarily by strong Navigator sales.

Navigator sales at 1,566 were up 27.3% from a year ago. Looking at the year's numbers, however, the Nav has been bouncing around, one month as low as 1,063 and one as high as 1,837, supply constraints being a major reason the numbers weren't even higher. This should be less of an issue going forward with Ford's announcement about moving shifts and employees around amongst its plants to further enhance production of FoMoCo's hotter selling vehicles. And Lincoln will need that additional production capacity if it wants Navigator sales to continue to grow. Otherwise, the big year-over-year growth numbers will dramatically decline as it was November 2017 when the new Nav first hit the stores.

Combined MKX/Nautilus sales at 3,153 (up 20.4%) set a near record (hey, I'm doing my part, though my purchase will be in the December, not November numbers), just a smidge below December 2016 sales. It is back to being Lincoln's volume sales leader after falling behind the MKC for much of the year in anticipation of the Nautilus refresh/rebrand.

And yet MKC sales at 2,263 (up 11.1%) remain strong.

Three big questions for next year:
1 - Will MKC sales start slowing down significantly as we get close to the Corsair launch?
2 - Just how huge will the Aviator be when it hits the lots mid-year? And will it pull sales away from the Nautilus and/or Navigator? Personally, I think a lot will be conquest sales given the Aviator's red-hot buzz and the fact that it is filling a product white space (give my regards to the MKT), so maybe not (or maybe not much).
3 - With the Corsair, will Lincoln hit its third home run in two years? And when it is released a year from now, who will be Lincoln's sales leader?

Edited by Gurgeh
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The numbers are to low on some models and product too fresh it ends up skewing  data.....if ford sold 1 product in october and 5 of same product in december it woukd look like a terrific new model introduction.....give it 8ish months or so and lets see how some of the models have faired.....no denying f150 continues to soldier on along with continual trend of suv's over anything sedan or hatchback....RAM us a good truck and is dam near class leading in intetior quiteness and appointments...dont become complacement or else your product ends up on short end-of-the-stick......jeep can and does build shit...nobody cares...its a jeep...owners modify the ever living heck out of em and guys are cutting up new JL'S within weeks if purchase....there is no other brand on this planet that i know of where purchasers would tolerate the faults of a product like heep owners do...well may be harley guys who lived with oil dry kitty litter for years..

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5 minutes ago, akirby said:

The cheapest model usually ends up being the sales leader just because the buyer base is larger at lower price points.

I think Aviator will take some Navi and Nautilus sales but will probably take more Explorer Platinum sales than anything else.

I think the Aviator will also take sales from Q7, XC90, MDX, X5, etc., but yeah. Also, I think that the Nautilus might hold its traditional position as sales leader (depending on how much Aviator cannibalizes Naut sales) until the Corsair comes out, as sales typically slide in the year just prior to a major redesign -- though not always.

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17 minutes ago, snooter said:

there is no other brand on this planet that i know of where purchasers would tolerate the faults of a product like heep owners do...well may be harley guys who lived with oil dry kitty litter for years..

There is no other current product that even remotely competes with Wrangler.  So of course they put up with problems.  We'll see if that changes with Bronco being available.

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8 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

I think the Aviator will also take sales from Q7, XC90, MDX, X5, etc., but yeah. Also, I think that the Nautilus might hold its traditional position as sales leader (depending on how much Aviator cannibalizes Naut sales) until the Corsair comes out, as sales typically slide in the year just prior to a major redesign -- though not always.

Oh I think the bulk of sales will be conquests for sure.  

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11 hours ago, jpd80 said:

This is an interesting question, what effect will the presence of Ranger have on F Series sales?

Sure, there will be some bleed across from F150 but Ford is probably betting that number is relatively small, 2.7 V6 EB will make a compelling case for those fence sitters to stay with F150.....

Interesting times ahead..

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens.  I'm sure they're hoping at worst maybe they can shift some low-end F-150s into more expensive upper trim Rangers?

3 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

It is interesting that analysts are seeing the Ford numbers as positive since the sales decline overall is less than they expected. It is really nice to see the Lincoln numbers, with an overall sales increase of 3.3% (up 17% for the crossover/SUVs -- poor sedans continue to swoon as is happening for everyone). For once, broadly positive news for them as they look ahead to two additional product launches in the next 12 months. Aviator mid-year and Corsair this time next year. I dug a little more into Lincoln's North America numbers and this is what I saw:

The particularly encouraging news is that the crossover/SUV strength is across the board, no longer being carried primarily by strong Navigator sales.

Navigator sales at 1,566 were up 27.3% from a year ago. Looking at the year's numbers, however, the Nav has been bouncing around, one month as low as 1,063 and one as high as 1,837, supply constraints being a major reason the numbers weren't even higher. This should be less of an issue going forward with Ford's announcement about moving shifts and employees around amongst its plants to further enhance production of FoMoCo's hotter selling vehicles. And Lincoln will need that additional production capacity if it wants Navigator sales to continue to grow. Otherwise, the big year-over-year growth numbers will dramatically decline as it was November 2017 when the new Nav first hit the stores.

Combined MKX/Nautilus sales at 3,153 (up 20.4%) set a near record (hey, I'm doing my part, though my purchase will be in the December, not November numbers), just a smidge below December 2016 sales. It is back to being Lincoln's volume sales leader after falling behind the MKC for much of the year in anticipation of the Nautilus refresh/rebrand.

And yet MKC sales at 2,263 (up 11.1%) remain strong.

Three big questions for next year:
1 - Will MKC sales start slowing down significantly as we get close to the Corsair launch?
2 - Just how huge will the Aviator be when it hits the lots mid-year? And will it pull sales away from the Nautilus and/or Navigator? Personally, I think a lot will be conquest sales given the Aviator's red-hot buzz and the fact that it is filling a product white space (give my regards to the MKT), so maybe not (or maybe not much).
3 - With the Corsair, will Lincoln hit its third home run in two years? And when it is released a year from now, who will be Lincoln's sales leader?

Lincoln's sales early in the year suffered pretty big because of the fleet sales reductions.  They've stabilized (and increased in a couple of months) toward the end of the year.  It'll be interesting to see Decembers numbers - last year's numbers were below 2016 numbers (10,619 vs. 12,791), so I think we could see them push past last year's figures.

---

As for your points:

1) I don't know if we'll see a significant slowdown, but I'm sure they'll trail off a bit.  The revised grille will likely help stem some of that, though.

2) I'm cautiously optimistic it'll jump in around MKC/MKX/Nautilus numbers if not better.  I think it's (along with Navigator, but Aviator targets a broader audience) a "wake up" product for the market - one that gets people to finally start noticing Lincoln again.  I think it's just a natural byproduct of being sandwiched between models that it will take some Nautilus and Navigator sales, but I'm with you in thinking it may be able to carve out its own market.

3) Fingers crossed!  I'd say it's a good bet Corsair will be the sales leader, but as akirby mentioned - a big reason for that is the pricepoint, which makes it more accessible for a broader audience.

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 I think Cadllac's CT4 - CT5 sales for November serves as a timely warning that adding product can sometimes have a detrimental effect on existing products - That's not to say adding Aviator won't be a huge success but it may induce some collateral damage to sales of  Nautilus and Navigator.

 

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