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RadicalX

Ford November 2018 Sales: Nautilus, Navigator, MKC and Expedition strong increase sales

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Expedition: 4.264    (up 7.9%)

Heavy Trucks: 1048   (up 85.2%)

MKC:   2.263 (up 11.1%)

Navigator: 1.566   (up 27.3%)

Nautilus: 3.153   (up 20.4%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

November_2018_Sales.Final.pptx.pdf

Edited by robertlane

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Highlights

 November U.S. sales at Ford Motor Company totaled 196,303 vehicles, representing a 6.9 percent decline

As a result of a decline in daily rental sales due to order timing, Ford fleet sales were down 7.1 percent; daily rental was down 32.7 percent, while commercial sales were up 11.8 percent

A stronger mix of Trucks and SUVs increased Ford’s overall average transaction pricing, hitting a new record of $37,000 in November, a $1,600 increase over last year. This compares to a $780 increase for the overall industry, with average transaction prices of $33,400

Ford F-Series has now recorded a record nine straight months topping 70,000 trucks sold, on sales of 72,102 pickups

Overall Ford Expedition sales increased 7.9 percent last month with 4,264 SUVs sold. At retail, Expedition sales grew at a faster pace of 17.7 percent

Lincoln Navigator sales rose on strong demand and tight inventory; 88 percent of retail sales were high series Reserve and Black Label Navigator models. Navigator posted gains of 27.3 percent overall

Lincoln began selling its new Nautilus SUV last month; overall MKX and Nautilus sales were up 20.4 percent, with Nautilus representing approximately half of the retail mix

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3 minutes ago, akirby said:

Highlights

 November U.S. sales at Ford Motor Company totaled 196,303 vehicles, representing a 6.9 percent decline

As a result of a decline in daily rental sales due to order timing, Ford fleet sales were down 7.1 percent; daily rental was down 32.7 percent, while commercial sales were up 11.8 percent

A stronger mix of Trucks and SUVs increased Ford’s overall average transaction pricing, hitting a new record of $37,000 in November, a $1,600 increase over last year. This compares to a $780 increase for the overall industry, with average transaction prices of $33,400

Ford F-Series has now recorded a record nine straight months topping 70,000 trucks sold, on sales of 72,102 pickups

Overall Ford Expedition sales increased 7.9 percent last month with 4,264 SUVs sold. At retail, Expedition sales grew at a faster pace of 17.7 percent

Lincoln Navigator sales rose on strong demand and tight inventory; 88 percent of retail sales were high series Reserve and Black Label Navigator models. Navigator posted gains of 27.3 percent overall

Lincoln began selling its new Nautilus SUV last month; overall MKX and Nautilus sales were up 20.4 percent, with Nautilus representing approximately half of the retail mix

With the arrival of the Aviator, Lincoln will be able to approach Infiniti

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1 minute ago, RadicalX said:

With the arrival of the Aviator, Lincoln will be able to approach Infiniti

 

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Nice number for heavy trucks...

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Guess it makes sense they combined MKX and Nautilus numbers (I'm guessing they wouldn't have had it been an all-new model, not just a refresh).  Nice to see Lincoln have a bump in the positive direction.

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2 hours ago, RadicalX said:

With the arrival of the Aviator, Lincoln will be able to approach Infiniti

We've heard that before.  Hopefully in time though.

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Just out of curiosity, I wonder in which month’s numbers the MKZ that I ordered is included.

I met with my salesman, signed some paperwork, handed over a deposit check, and (in my view) placed an order for a 2019 MKZ-H with my dealer on Wednesday, 17 October 2018.  I was told my dealership places its orders with Lincoln on Tuesdays, thus I expected the order for my Z to be put into the dealer order system the following Tuesday, which would be 23 October.

However, due to some issue/screwup at the dealer that was not fully explained to me (and, I admit, I did not ask for a detailed explanation because I was driving when my salesman called me to give me this news and because the issue was “water under the bridge” at that point), the order was not placed by the dealer until mid-November, 4 weeks after I expected.

So...even though I think I placed the order in October (that is when I signed the customer order form and handed them a check as a deposit), is it likely that my MKZ is reflected in the month of November numbers because that is the month that Lincoln got the order?

 

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I believe it's counted only when the vehicle is sold, not ordered. 

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FCA sold 181,310 vehicles / 25% fleet

Ford sold 196,303 / 25.9% fleet

Driving FCA are Jeep and Ram, which is why Ford wishes to be more like them.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20181203/RETAIL01/181209930

 

Edited by robertlane

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Here's a summary of November 2018 / some haven't reported their sales yet and GM only reports quarterly now:

http://www.autonews.com/article/20181203/RETAIL01/181209939/ford-toyota-honda-sales-drop-on-weak-car-volume

November 2018 Sales By Manufacturer Table:

http://edit.autonews.com/section/usdcsales&nocache=1

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Ford is still doing a fairly good job offsetting volume for a richer margin mix.  The car-pocalypse at Ford is more like a renovation than an implosion.  It does appear we have reached peak F-Series which I likely alarming to investors.  I imagine F-Series will likely spend most of 2019 in the red with Ranger and competition eating at them.   Ford's utility sales are also struggling to stay in the black this year, Expedition and EcoSport appear to be shouldering the loss from the others which is both a high and low margin product.  Ford still has to fix its utility business which should start happening by the end of next year.  

MKX/Nautilus must be benefiting from incentives on the old and sales of the new, this might be the first time a Lincoln has cleared 3,000 sales this year.  

Edited by Assimilator

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13 minutes ago, Assimilator said:

I believe it's counted only when the vehicle is sold, not ordered. 

Ah.  Of course, that makes sense.  Didn’t think of that possibility.  Thank you.

Edited by 1984Poke

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21 minutes ago, robertlane said:

We've heard that before.  Hopefully in time though.

Aviator should grow Lincoln's customer base, we also have the new Corsair and Nautilus to hopefully hang onto or grow their existing customers.   But Lincoln is also trying to offset MKZ volume  so it's going to be harder to keep those overall numbers up.  And then there is the softening in the car industry which may further tighten Lincoln's potential even with a virtually all-new suite of utilities.  

Edited by Assimilator

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34 minutes ago, 1984Poke said:

Just out of curiosity, I wonder in which month’s numbers the MKZ that I ordered is included.

I met with my salesman, signed some paperwork, handed over a deposit check, and (in my view) placed an order for a 2019 MKZ-H with my dealer on Wednesday, 17 October 2018.  I was told my dealership places its orders with Lincoln on Tuesdays, thus I expected the order for my Z to be put into the dealer order system the following Tuesday, which would be 23 October.

However, due to some issue/screwup at the dealer that was not fully explained to me (and, I admit, I did not ask for a detailed explanation because I was driving when my salesman called me to give me this news and because the issue was “water under the bridge” at that point), the order was not placed by the dealer until mid-November, 4 weeks after I expected.

So...even though I think I placed the order in October (that is when I signed the customer order form and handed them a check as a deposit), is it likely that my MKZ is reflected in the month of November numbers because that is the month that Lincoln got the order?

 

It only counts when you take delivery.

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1 hour ago, robertlane said:

It's not hard to look at Silverado/Sierra and Ram being new affects sales numbers.

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17 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

It's not hard to look at Silverado/Sierra and Ram being new affects sales numbers.

Or was it that last years sales were   significantly stronger compared to 2016's numbers..

November F Series sales

2018.........72,103

2017.........72,769

2016.........72,089

October F Series sales

2018.........70,438

2017.........75,974

2016.........65,542

I would be willing to bet that something exceptional happened with sales last October and November, were they perhaps replacing storm or flood damaged vehicles?

Edited by jpd80

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It would be interesting to see what Expedition and Navigator could do if they weren’t capacity constrained. 

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1 minute ago, jpd80 said:

Or was it that last years sales were   significantly stronger compared to 2016's numbers..

That's true too.  Did some research:

_______2015_____2016_____2017_____2018

Sept....69651......67809......82302.......75092

Oct......65500......65542......75974.......70438

Nov.....65192......72089.......72769......72102

 

So for September and October, last years' numbers were significantly higher than previous years (up 14.5K and ~10.5K).   November's numbers have been very consistent the last 3 years.

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17 minutes ago, tbone said:

It would be interesting to see what Expedition and Navigator could do if they weren’t capacity constrained. 

Actually they aren't as bad anymore, Ford builds around 7,000 Expeditons and around 2,500 Navigators a month.

Inventory on Expedition is fairly good now but I can't speak to trim mix

 

October production and YTD

Expedition.......7,133........October YTD........63,305

Navigator.........2,519........October YTD........20,298

Inventory October 1, 2018

Expedition......20,300

Navigator.........2,900

 

 

Edited by jpd80

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1 hour ago, robertlane said:

Looks like Dodge RAM is stealing some F-series sales... 

December is the big Truck sales month, with small business owners looking at 'spend it or get taxed on it...' advice from their accountants.  We'll see if Ford F-series can regain dominance over Dodge... 

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Trims could certainly have an impact on sales.  The Expedition and Nav are significantly more expensive than they used to be. 

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5 minutes ago, Kev-Mo said:

Looks like Dodge RAM is stealing some F-series sales... 

December is the big Truck sales month, with small business owners looking at 'spend it or get taxed on it...' advice from their accountants.  We'll see if Ford F-series can regain dominance over Dodge... 

If anything Ram is stealing Silverado sales and as explained above 2017 F Series October, November sales were significantly higher than 2016 and 2018

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13 minutes ago, Kev-Mo said:

Looks like Dodge RAM is stealing some F-series sales... 

December is the big Truck sales month, with small business owners looking at 'spend it or get taxed on it...' advice from their accountants.  We'll see if Ford F-series can regain dominance over Dodge... 

Last time I checked 72K > 50k.

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