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silvrsvt

Elon Musk admits Tesla nearly died

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25 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

I get the argument of not paying for a car, etc., but that sounds expensive using it for everything.

Yeah, it seems to be.  She does work from home, so that helps, but she still has to use it for visits to client sites and what-not.  I know I couldn't afford it...

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1 hour ago, fordmantpw said:

  I've never used it myself due to there being no real use for it in the rural area I'm in.

Ditto for me.  No Uber/Lyft in this part of rural northern Michigan, and I doubt there ever will be.  Just too small of a population base.  The County does offer a "dial-a-ride" service.  Just call them on the phone, wait a 1/2 hour, and a small bus shows up.  An AV would have a use up here.  Who knows?  Maybe someday I'll be able to hop in my AV Shelby Mustang and have it take me to the local Walmart and back.

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I’ve had friends use Uber to get to the airport before and have had multiple drivers cancel on them right before the flight they where getting on! I’d rather not have to deal with that possibility. 

Ive used Uber on business trips to DC and northern Dallas and it’s been fine. I wouldn’t want to use it as my primary mode of transportation, useless I was too old to drive. 

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On 11/30/2018 at 8:13 AM, twintornados said:

Image result for break vs brake meme

Gotta break the brakes! Damn autocorrect! 

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On 11/30/2018 at 10:14 AM, twintornados said:

I am not against Uber/Lyft, per se, I have used Uber on occasion as well - but when it is my primary form of transportation, I prefer my own vehicle for use and personal enjoyment. 

Agreed but you won’t get any personal enjoyment from owning an AV. 

The question was Uber/Lyft vs. either owning an AV or using an AV service instead of owning a normal vehicle.

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On 11/30/2018 at 10:08 AM, rperez817 said:

 

The main problem with Uber, Lyft, and other "Transportation Network Companies" (TNC) as they exist now is the use of human drivers. Contracting with these drivers is very costly and makes the TNC's services relatively expensive for its customers. And in some cases low quality if the driver has a poorly maintained car, criminal record, etc. It also is a big reason why Uber and Lyft have negative net income year after year. Also as twintornados mentioned, there's the "relying on others" thing when human drivers are involved, which most TNC customers probably want to do without.

Let’s say Uber saves $15/hr by eliminating the drivers.   That’s $5 on a 20 minute ride.   There are other advantages but I’m only addressing the notion that it will make TaaS super cheap.

They also have a new expense - the system to manage the AVs and that will not be cheap.  In fact it may cost more than human drivers.

 

I stand by my statement that anyone who would use an AV ride service exclusively is probably already using Uber/Lyft.   This is not going to cause a huge shift in car sales to AVs and away from traditional vehicles, especially with EVs and hybrid and PHEV utilities coming.

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13 hours ago, akirby said:

Agreed but you won’t get any personal enjoyment from owning an AV. 

The question was Uber/Lyft vs. either owning an AV or using an AV service instead of owning a normal vehicle.

Why wouldn't I get any personal enjoyment from going for a ride in MY car?? Whether I am driving or riding, it is MY car and MY trip of leisure if I wanted to go see something like Niagara Falls or the Washington Monument...I would enjoy the ride to get there if I couldn't drive and I wouldn't have to pester or worry my relatives or friends to do it if I could not actually drive any longer. 

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For me, riding in an AV would not be relaxing (neither would having relatives or friends drive me!)

Driving is like eating a big juicy cheeseburger with a toasted bun and a side of fries.

Riding is like a TV dinner. It accomplishes the objective, but it isn't satisfying.

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1 hour ago, twintornados said:

Why wouldn't I get any personal enjoyment from going for a ride in MY car?? Whether I am driving or riding, it is MY car and MY trip of leisure if I wanted to go see something like Niagara Falls or the Washington Monument...I would enjoy the ride to get there if I couldn't drive and I wouldn't have to pester or worry my relatives or friends to do it if I could not actually drive any longer. 

Well obviously I was talking about DRIVING enjoyment.  If you get enjoyment from just riding along then more power to you.

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Just now, akirby said:

Well obviously I was talking about DRIVING enjoyment.  If you get enjoyment from just riding along then more power to you.

I think that when I get to the point when I cannot drive, I will continue to enjoy the mobility of being able to get in MY car and go wherever I wish at my own choosing. Right now, I do enjoy DRIVING...but, someday, I won't be able to. 

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24 minutes ago, Trailhiker said:

Driving is like eating a big juicy cheeseburger with a toasted bun and a side of fries.

For many people who live in congested urbanized areas, driving is like heartburn. Driving in Washington, D.C. is like a nasty case of gastroenteritis. It only took one time driving in that city for me to say "never again". When I travel to Washington, D.C. for work, I rely on WMATA despite their crummy service, plus Lyft, taxicabs, and my running shoes to get around. :) 

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48 minutes ago, Trailhiker said:

Driving is like eating a big juicy cheeseburger with a toasted bun and a side of fries.

 

17 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

... driving is like heartburn. Driving in Washington, D.C. is like a nasty case of gastroenteritis. ...

 

:)

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23 hours ago, rperez817 said:

For many people who live in congested urbanized areas, driving is like heartburn. Driving in Washington, D.C. is like a nasty case of gastroenteritis. It only took one time driving in that city for me to say "never again". When I travel to Washington, D.C. for work, I rely on WMATA despite their crummy service, plus Lyft, taxicabs, and my running shoes to get around. :) 

 

But using Lyft/Uber or a self driving car in traffic is still going to have the same experence. Short of completely eliminating human drivers and having smart roads in ubran areas like that-its not going to change all that much. 

Not to mention you'll have even more vehicles on the road because I don't think sharing of your ride is going to be too popular. 

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29 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

But using Lyft/Uber or a self driving car in traffic is still going to have the same experence. Short of completely eliminating human drivers and having smart roads in ubran areas like that-its not going to change all that much. 

Not to mention you'll have even more vehicles on the road because I don't think sharing of your ride is going to be too popular. 

Being a passenger rather than a driver in a regular car is a completely different experience. As a passenger, you can safely take a nap, make calls to your superiors, read your documents, etc. Can't do that as a driver, legally at least. With Level 5 AVs, the burden of driving is assumed entirely by the software and hardware of the car itself. So all occupants of AVs can enjoy the passenger experience.

You make an excellent point about more driving and more traffic once shared AVs become popular. Elon Musk agrees. He said the following. https://electrek.co/2017/05/01/tesla-network-elon-musk-autonomous-ride-sharing-vision/

Quote

"A lot of people think that once you make cars autonomous that they’ll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion and to some degree that will be true. But once you have shared autonomy where it’s much cheaper to go by car. And you can go point to point. The affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus. Like, it would cost less than a bus ticket. So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy and actually, traffic will get far worse"

Musk proposes underground tunnel networks to alleviate traffic on surface streets. https://electrek.co/2017/04/28/elon-musk-the-boring-company-concept-video/

It will be interesting to see how popular the owner "sharing" part of Tesla's Network program will be. This is where individual owners of autonomous Tesla cars can share their vehicles whenever they want. Kind of like AirBnB for autonomous cars. Musk explained it will work like this.

Quote

" So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car and you can choose to use that car exclusively. You can choose to have it used only by friends and family… or other drivers who are rated five star. You can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That’s 100 percent what will occur. It’s just a question of when"

Edited by rperez817

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Quote

" So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car and you can choose to use that car exclusively. You can choose to have it used only by friends and family… or other drivers who are rated five star. You can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That’s 100 percent what will occur. It’s just a question of when"

Now that I can see - sharing an AV amongst friends or family members.  But even in that scenario it's not going to replace conventional vehicles for most people - it will just be something to use at certain times and certain situations.

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Not sure if this has been posted but interesting break down of Tesla 3 and why it's so expensive to build

 

 

 

 

 

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Elon Musk will be on the CBS TV show 60 minutes tonight. He said Tesla may consider using some of the U.S. factories GM no longer needs. https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/08/tech/elon-musk-gm-electric-cars/index.html

In his 60 Minutes interview, Musk also floated the possibility that Tesla may expand its footprint in the United States. He said Tesla "would be interested" in taking over some of the factory space GM said it will abandon during its restructuring.

The company's current assembly site in Fremont, California, also has a history with GM. The plant was jointly operated by GM and Toyota before Tesla took over in 2010.

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I watched the 60 minutes segment with Elon last night...the guy is dancing along the thin line of genius and "bat-shit crazy".....but I gotta hand it to him....he is this generations closest thing to Henry Ford anyone has ever seen....

PS: Henry Ford was also described as both genius and "bat-shit crazy" in his time as well.

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7 hours ago, twintornados said:

I watched the 60 minutes segment with Elon last night...the guy is dancing along the thin line of genius and "bat-shit crazy".....but I gotta hand it to him....he is this generations closest thing to Henry Ford anyone has ever seen....

PS: Henry Ford was also described as both genius and "bat-shit crazy" in his time as well.

I'm just happy that the United States now has a "big 3" again, not counting the company that Fiat owns...

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11 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

I'm just happy that the United States now has a "big 3" again, not counting the company that Fiat owns...

There is zero guarantee Tesla survives the looming downturn. 

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3 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

There is zero guarantee Tesla survives the looming downturn. 

That's true of the other two U.S. automakers too (GM and Ford). And there's no guarantee than any automaker will be "bailed out" by the U.S. federal government if it does fail.

Tesla, GM, and Ford have all learned from their near death experiences, and each has done the right things to prepare for the next downturn. Plus, all three are investing heavily in EV and autonomous vehicle technology that represent the future of the whole automotive industry. I'm cautiously optimistic about the future of U.S. automakers.

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The path through the next decade is a perilous one to chart, everybody has a very different vision and how to invest into it.  It's awesome and scary at the same time.  All of the Detroit companies could be gone by 2030 and we'll have a bunch of new BEV companies taking over...or it could look like a consolidated version of what we know today.  It ultimately depends on how dramatically things actually change and how quickly or slowly electric adoption is.  Ford is counting on a much more gradual process,  GM and VW are going all-in.  I obviously favor Ford's approach which basically makes the transition faster and more widespread, even if it's only partial.  And of course there are the AV programs and the transition to utilities, all of which Ford seems to be on the forefront of.  

The only thing I'm concerned about is the BEV truck ambitious of other upstart companies getting ahead of Ford, that's where Ford's F-150 BEV could particularly shine depending on how ambitious they are.  The last thing you want is Tesla taking the top out of the market for Ford.  

The good thing about Ford's ambitious is that they are very customer focused, they want electrification to deliver benefits well beyond economy, just like eco boost.  

Edited by Assimilator

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On 12/10/2018 at 6:48 PM, Assimilator said:

The path through the next decade is a perilous one to chart, everybody has a very different vision and how to invest into it.  It's awesome and scary at the same time.  All of the Detroit companies could be gone by 2030 and we'll have a bunch of new BEV companies taking over...or it could look like a consolidated version of what we know today.  It ultimately depends on how dramatically things actually change and how quickly or slowly electric adoption is.  Ford is counting on a much more gradual process,  GM and VW are going all-in.  I obviously favor Ford's approach which basically makes the transition faster and more widespread, even if it's only partial.  And of course there are the AV programs and the transition to utilities, all of which Ford seems to be on the forefront of.  

The only thing I'm concerned about is the BEV truck ambitious of other upstart companies getting ahead of Ford, that's where Ford's F-150 BEV could particularly shine depending on how ambitious they are.  The last thing you want is Tesla taking the top out of the market for Ford.  

The good thing about Ford's ambitious is that they are very customer focused, they want electrification to deliver benefits well beyond economy, just like eco boost.  

 

I still think Tesla is still on borrowed time-The Model S has been out since 2012 and had a minor refresh done to it. Telsa seems hell bent on coming out with new products-but once they hit that limitation there-where is the reinvesting into the current products they have now or improving their tech?

The might have the same sort of creed that Apple had 5-10 years ago, but with more estiablished players getting to stake claim to the same market with snob appeal like Audi, Porsche, etc at the higher end and GM/Ford/VW at the lower end, they are going to get pinched badly in the next 24-48 months IMO. 

As for Truck startup-there might be players that get new products to market, but over the long haul its going to be very hard for them to match the output of FCA/GM/Ford in full sized pickups. I can see a start up leading say Ford for a couple years in a release, but Ford will have an answer to that product that the overall impact is  miminual. 

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Elon tweeted this morning about how badly he wants to make a Tesla pickup and now the Tesla apologists are foaming at the mouth at the (wrong, I might add) prospect of putting Ford out of business. 

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38 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Elon tweeted this morning about how badly he wants to make a Tesla pickup and now the Tesla apologists are foaming at the mouth at the (wrong, I might add) prospect of putting Ford out of business. 

LOL!  If there is one thing Ford knows how to do, it's trucks.  Don't think for a minute that Ford doesn't have something planned to pre-empt (is that how you spell that??) any attack from Tesla on their truck market.

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