Elon Musk admits Tesla nearly died

[rperez817]

37 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Elon tweeted this morning about how badly he wants to make a Tesla pickup and now the Tesla apologists are foaming at the mouth at the (wrong, I might add) prospect of putting Ford out of business. 

Elon's eagerness for Tesla pickup truck is understandable. It will be interesting to see which automaker is first to introduce a truly capable BEV pickup truck for the U.S. market. That company will have it made. Will it be Tesla, Ford, Rivian, or someone else?

[fordmantpw]

5 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Elon's eagerness for Tesla pickup truck is understandable. It will be interesting to see which automaker is first to introduce a truly capable BEV pickup truck for the U.S. market. That company will have it made. Will it be Tesla, Ford, Rivian, or someone else?

I have an issue with that bold statement.  First isn't always best.  It has to be a sustainable product putting forth a profit to keep it going.  Tesla and Rivian don't have the cash flow to sustain a product that doesn't make a decent profit.  Ford can rely on the other 70k F-Series sales/month to keep the electric model going at break-even (or even a small loss) until it can make a profit and sustain itself.  I see Tesla and Rivian as niche players in the big pickup field.  See: Honda Ridgeline.

[akirby]

19 minutes ago, fordmantpw said:

I have an issue with that bold statement.  First isn't always best.  It has to be a sustainable product putting forth a profit to keep it going.  Tesla and Rivian don't have the cash flow to sustain a product that doesn't make a decent profit.  Ford can rely on the other 70k F-Series sales/month to keep the electric model going at break-even (or even a small loss) until it can make a profit and sustain itself.  I see Tesla and Rivian as niche players in the big pickup field.  See: Honda Ridgeline.

 

But you don’t understand - EVERYTHING is going BEV and AVs will be taking over everything within 5 years!

Haven’t you been paying attention?

[Assimilator]

There's a perception that Ford is particularly behind its competitors on Battery technology, after all they've never developed their own BEV and virtually stopped development completely around 2013 when things were just getting started for Tesla.  The reality is that Ford has been working on this technology for decades, long before Tesla, but the problem for Ford and every other company is scaling and profits.  There is an incredible amount of innovation freedom for startup companies like Tesla, there is no question Tesla is the most influential car company since Ford, they've charted the path for the future and absolutely none of this would be happening without them showing the way and we've never seen a single carmaker do that before since Model T.  And what's amazing to me is that for the first time in my lifetime, an American car company is the influencer instead of the Japanese or Germans.   But it's also largely true that Tesla could never have happened at Ford, nor could Ford sell those products nearly as well.  We'd still be plugging away with boring low selling compliance BEVs if it weren't for Tesla.  Tesla is more than just an EV, it's a fundamentally different way of developing and selling a vehicle, it still has a ton of advantages over its competitors which are still largely copying them, often with less capabilities and range.  I don't think Tesla is going anywhere, and the success of Model 3 finally convinced me Tesla is going to make it.  

There is still a TON of room for Ford to shine and for them it starts with redefining Hybrids while most are going straight to BEVs.  This sounds like a half-measure unworthy of note, but it's a big deal considering how early we actually are in the electrification of the industry.   And then they just have to sort out how quickly they are going to enter the BEV spaces, right now we have two major consumer options arriving in the next 3 years I believe (F-150 and Mach-E).  We may see other commercial vehicles like vans, and hopefully a Lincoln but I've heard nothing about that yet.  Either way Ford is mostly joining the chorus rather than innovating in BEVs, that's my only concern there, but their bet is on Hybrids being the ignored bridge that allows them to reach far more customers before BEVs really start scaling.  I don't think that's going to change perception of Ford as a non-contributor because their flashy BEV ambitions are slower, but their business case should add up well in the end.  

 

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by Assimilator

[fordmantpw]

59 minutes ago, Assimilator said:

...but their business case should add up well in the end.  

And really, that is what matters in the end.  If you can't make money at it, it won't be around long.

[akirby]

I keep telling the negatards that Ford has been building hybrids since 2005 and plug in hybrids since 2012 and a plug in hybrid is far more complicated since you have to integrate the ICE with the electric motors.  A BEV is simpler (no ICE to integrate) and comes with a larger battery pack for more range. There is no doubt Ford could have done a BEV years ago but there was absolutely no business case for it.   Being able to hybridize almost any vehicle and build it alongside non hybrid versions is going to be huge IMO especially if gas prices go back up.  They can change the production mix as needed to build more or less hybrids as the market dictates.   Meanwhile they’ll debut a BEV that should match up to anything else on the upper end of the BEV market which might have a chance to turn a small profit or at least break even.

The idea that Ford doesn’t know how to make a BEV like the Bolt or Tesla is ridiculously uninformed.

[Assimilator]

Ford is generally getting very good at showing up with product that doesn't disappoint or under-perform, unless it's the EcoSport....but even then we know (or at least I know) that it's a product of priorities and compromise before the right vehicle is finished.  And it's never too late to lead, but you can't lead if you get it wrong and lose money doing it.

 

[rperez817]

4 hours ago, fordmantpw said:

I have an issue with that bold statement.  First isn't always best.  It has to be a sustainable product putting forth a profit to keep it going.  Tesla and Rivian don't have the cash flow to sustain a product that doesn't make a decent profit.  Ford can rely on the other 70k F-Series sales/month to keep the electric model going at break-even (or even a small loss) until it can make a profit and sustain itself.  I see Tesla and Rivian as niche players in the big pickup field.  See: Honda Ridgeline.

Good points fordmantpw sir. With EVs and pickup trucks being two of the hottest categories in the auto industry now, combining the two is a huge opportunity. Being first with a good BEV pickup truck will be a big deal. But Ford should do well with that type of vehicle even if they aren't first to market. Ford's history and experience with pickup trucks in general give them an advantage over Tesla and Rivian for long term success. 

[msm859]

3 hours ago, Assimilator said:

........

There is still a TON of room for Ford to shine and for them it starts with redefining Hybrids while most are going straight to BEVs.  ......

 

 

Agreed.  Let's see how well they execute with the new Lincoln Aviator.  What Tesla has done is made fast, good looking, no compromise vehicles.  Everyone else has been making funky slow BEV's or under performing hybrids.  Ford is doing the right marketing with the Aviator - calling it the GT and the performance model.  Now all they need is for it to have serious all electric numbers - over 50km with decent acceleration.  If they can do  that, with the good looks they will have a home run.

[silvrsvt]

The Electric Ranger would like to talk to all of you....from 1998

 

https://www.autotrader.com/car-news/ford-ranger-ev-was-fords-response-electric-chevy-s-258778

 

Not very practical, but hey its a start

[rperez817]

On 12/13/2018 at 10:25 PM, silvrsvt said:

The Electric Ranger would like to talk to all of you....from 1998

All of us heard what it said. "Science fair project"