Is Ford in trouble?

[rperez817]

Well, no matter what one thinks of them, Tesla had 400K customers put down $1000 deposits to preorder Model 3s, and has been the best-selling American car for the last two months(and should stay there while they bring down that waiting list). So, apparently, there is a bit of a market for EVs, too.

 

Yes sir. There is a large market for EVs that are appealing and well designed beyond just the electric drive part. It can't just be a "compliance" car. That's why Tesla and GM dominate EV sales in the U.S.

 

Ford now has a chance to get this right. No more half ass efforts like Focus EV.

[silvrsvt]

LOL. What they want is a economical car at a decent price that can get them from A to B. They don't want all the fancy gadgets and luxury BS that are thrown into packages that just raise the prices.

Thats never going to happen, because automakers cant make a decent profit off it. Why chase something that breaks even vs something that makes 5% or better profit?

 

Yes, cars are getting more expensive, but they also last a lot longer time too. And apparently people are willing to spend the $$$ to do it

 

Dont like it? Buy a used car.

[coupe3w]

 

You did. I thought you were being sarcastic.

I was being sarcastic. But I want Ford to cater to the rich......we want profits, profits, and more profits. Not going to get there selling Focus, Ecosport, or Rangers now are we. Need to be more greedy, the hell with the working stiffs. Right? LOL

[akirby]

Tell us what exactly is Fords plan? They are running around like a chicken with their head cut off right now. Chasing after every new idea and seeing what sticks. This company is out of control.

 

I agree they've changed plans too much the last decade without much to show for it. But remember we only hear about things 2-3 years after they've been in development. None of the stuff we're talking about right now is brand new to Ford internally. Hybrid Aviator has been in development for at least 3 years, probably longer. Mach 1 has been in development for probably a decade or longer. Transportation as a Service and AVs are not new either. What is new is that they're focusing more resources on the new stuff and getting rid of some lower margin stuff in the process.

 

And their piss poor communication skills make it seem worse than it really is.

 

I think the problem is some of you can't see where the future is leading with utilities, hybrids, BEVs and AVs and Ford will be at or near the market lead by 2020 in all those areas. And while they're doing this they're not ignoring their traditional market leaders - F series, Ranger, Transit, Explorer, Mustang, Bronco, etc.

[akirby]

LOL. What they want is a economical car at a decent price that can get them from A to B. They don't want all the fancy gadgets and luxury BS that are thrown into packages that just raise the prices.

 

And Ford can't make much money selling those kinds of vehicles, so what's the point when they have other options?

 

If you had the choice between a $10/hr job and a $20/hr job that were otherwise equal which one would you pick?

[akirby]

I was being sarcastic. But I want Ford to cater to the rich......we want profits, profits, and more profits. Not going to get there selling Focus, Ecosport, or Rangers now are we. Need to be more greedy, the hell with the working stiffs. Right? LOL

 

Actually, yes. There are literally dozens of vehicles filling that market space right now from multiple manufacturers. Ford doesn't have to cater to every single buyer or market.

 

Ford hasn't sold a minivan in over a decade. Where's the outrage? How are those poor soccer moms getting their kids to where they need to be? Oh wait - other mfrs still make them?

 

Does Apple have a $99 iphone?

 

Five Guys charges $8 for a hamburger. Outrageous? How are the poor people supposed to afford a hamburger? McDonalds, Rallys, Checkers, etc.

 

I get it that you WANT Ford to be in every market and have options. That would be great if it was financially feasible but it's really not right now. But they're not leaving anybody abandoned.

[akirby]

Outside of hybrid utilities, there is very little proof that there is or will ever be a market for such things. It looks a lot more like a Wall Street pipe dream than an actual business opportunity. Now of course you have to keep Wall Street happy and you don't want to be left out of any emerging markets, but Ford is chasing this stuff directly at the expense of new traditional product that needed yesterday. It's the traditional product that will pay the bills for the foreseeable future and Ford just can't seem to stick to a plan to deliver any. Every three months they announce a new plan for product but they never seem to quite accomplish anything.

 

The "traditional products" that Ford is killing right now aren't paying the bills to start with. Why is that so hard for folks to understand? THEY'RE NOT MAKING MUCH IF ANYTHING RIGHT NOW! And that's not likely to change anytime soon. Regular cars have become a commodity with way too much competition.

 

What's paying the bills right now are trucks, vans and utilities. Period.

[akirby]

No proven market for BEVs? Put down the crack pipe. BEVs are here to stay although I agree they won't be a huge percentage of the market for a long time.

 

But they will be extremely profitable compared to a Focus or Fusion sedan.

 

And I don't think some of you understand what Transportation as a Service means. The future of AVs is in the commercial sector as transportation vehicles - transporting passengers or cargo. Trams and buses at schools, entertainment venues, private campuses, food delivery, material delivery, etc. The big advantage here is not selling the AVs themselves - that's a one time profit. The advantage that Ford will have is after the sale the buyer will subscribe to the Transportation as a Service platform services and pay Ford big bucks every month for the next several years. They'll make way more off the service than off the vehicles, but you need to have the vehicles available to purchase to make it work.

 

It's like buying a satellite radio. They may make $100 off the radio when you buy it but they get $10-$20/month from you every month for the next 5-10 years. That's $600-$2400 in revenue and close to that in profit.

 

Now the big question is whether they can make it all work and if they don't it will be a bust. But you can't fault the business plan.

[coupe3w]

Sears catered to the working stiff and look what happened to them. Neiman Marcus caters to the well off customer and they are just holding on. So no business model is right or wrong it's how you serve your customer that works. Get greedy and you will fail.

[Sevensecondsuv]

Well, no matter what one thinks of them, Tesla had 400K customers put down $1000 deposits to preorder Model 3s, and has been the best-selling American car for the last two months(and should stay there while they bring down that waiting list). So, apparently, there is a bit of a market for EVs, too.

Except most of those preorders/sales are to foreign markets (Europe mostly). That and a significant number have cancelled and requested a refund since Tesla can't seem to get around to building them in significant numbers let alone build ones that are priced near the mythical $35000 mark.

 

But oh yeah, Ford needs to be chasing Tesla down the electric rabbit hole.

 

People need to remember that the ICE vs electric debate was fought and settled early on in the development of the automobile. Battery and motor technology hasn't changed enough in the last 100 years relative to ICE technology to re-think the issue. If it wasn't for the govt-industrial greenie complex, Tesla wouldn't exist and no serious person would consider electric a viable option for automobiles. Think of this in reverse: electric cars are normal/standard and somebody introduces the ICE powertrain. It would be nearly universally adopted overnight by a free market society due to the myriad of benefits it offers. Compare that to electric: it's been around for decades (as long as the ICE, really) and has never managed anything beyond fringe market penetration.

[akirby]

I say "may" because they still haven't explained their supposed new strategic vision. That uncertainty, more than anything else, is what is hammering Ford stock.

 

They've laid everything out multiple times, maybe not in one cohesive statement but the future is clear. It's not rocket surgery.

 

High performing premium BEVs.

Hybrid and PHEV utilities across the board. Hybrid trucks and mustangs.

Consolidation of platforms with only a few common shared architectures.

AVs and Transportation as a Service

Keep market lead with trucks and vans including commercial sales

Adding high margin vehicles (Ranger, Bronco, Baby Bronco) and cutting lower margin vehicles (sedans)

Stay within the current factory footprint for North America

Expand Lincoln into China

[akirby]

 

Sears catered to the working stiff and look what happened to them. Neiman Marcus caters to the well off customer and they are just holding on. So no business model is right or wrong it's how you serve your customer that works. Get greedy and you will fail.

 

There is nothing greedy about it. Ford will still sell relatively inexpensive vehicles they just won't be a Focus or Fiesta sedan.

 

And they won't be Neiman Marcus - they'll be Target instead of Dollar Tree.

[akirby]

Battery and motor technology hasn't changed enough in the last 100 years relative to ICE technology to re-think the issue.

 

You've completely lost your mind. A 300 mile range makes a BEV a perfectly viable vehicle for 95% of the population. The only downside is cost and needing a second vehicle for long out of town trips unless you're willing to recharge along the way. It won't be a huge market in the near term but even if it's 10% of the overall market that's over 1.5M vehicles per year.

[akirby]

Except most of those preorders/sales are to foreign markets (Europe mostly). That and a significant number have cancelled and requested a refund since Tesla can't seem to get around to building them in significant numbers let alone build ones that are priced near the mythical $35000 mark.

 

But oh yeah, Ford needs to be chasing Tesla down the electric rabbit hole.

 

People need to remember that the ICE vs electric debate was fought and settled early on in the development of the automobile. Battery and motor technology hasn't changed enough in the last 100 years relative to ICE technology to re-think the issue. If it wasn't for the govt-industrial greenie complex, Tesla wouldn't exist and no serious person would consider electric a viable option for automobiles. Think of this in reverse: electric cars are normal/standard and somebody introduces the ICE powertrain. It would be nearly universally adopted overnight by a free market society due to the myriad of benefits it offers. Compare that to electric: it's been around for decades (as long as the ICE, really) and has never managed anything beyond fringe market penetration.

 

 

Translation:

 

Please don't take away my huge honking V8s!

 

We get it, but you don't have to make up lies to justify your desires.

[akirby]

Sorry, got a little carried away this morning.

 

[Fgts]

If the sedan market wasnt shrinking 20% year to date from last year...youd make more sense.

No, Ford would make sense by leaving everthing but one sedan for the remaining car buyers. A modest gain for the few is better then no money at all,seems GM, Toyota and the Euros got the message. Some don't care for a whateverUV rather plug-in or not.

[92merc]

No, Ford would make sense by leaving everthing but one sedan for the remaining car buyers. A modest gain for the few is better then no money at all,seems GM, Toyota and the Euros got the message. Some don't care for a whateverUV rather plug-in or not.

Ford was going to do just that with the Focus Active. A bit bigger than current Focus. Would have sufficed. But the tariff's screwed Ford over there. It is not longer profitable to build it elsewhere under current conditions.

[Fgts]

Ford was going to do just that with the Focus Active. A bit bigger than current Focus. Would have sufficed. But the tariff's screwed Ford over there. It is not longer profitable to build it elsewhere under current conditions.

That was a copout, Ford wanted to "go truckin" from the start. An NA made CD6 sedan from the mid-$20k to $50k would had done it.

[rmc523]

So Ford should cancel some other potentially very profitable project like Model E or the hybrid Aviator and build a $15K econobox that either breaks even or loses money?

 

If you had the choice of doing a 20 hour job for $200 or a different 20 hour job for $400 which one would you choose?

 

I choose option C - win the Mega Millions, and retire haha.

 

Outside of hybrid utilities, there is very little proof that there is or will ever be a market for such things. It looks a lot more like a Wall Street pipe dream than an actual business opportunity. Now of course you have to keep Wall Street happy and you don't want to be left out of any emerging markets, but Ford is chasing this stuff directly at the expense of new traditional product that needed yesterday. It's the traditional product that will pay the bills for the foreseeable future and Ford just can't seem to stick to a plan to deliver any. Every three months they announce a new plan for product but they never seem to quite accomplish anything.

 

They have 4 key products arriving within the year. That alone will solve most of the problems.

[silvrsvt]

The problem is that Ford is facing these problems now because of other issues they have bs coasting along with what they have. Other automakers are going to face the same problems.

 

As for Tesla-the Model 3 is fourth best selling sedan on the US market-at a price that is over 50k. Thats just nuts.

[fuzzymoomoo]

At least GM is getting the same treatment from investors

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-barra/frustrated-gm-investors-ask-what-more-ceo-barra-can-do-idUSKCN1MT2QM

[silvrsvt]

That was a copout, Ford wanted to "go truckin" from the start. An NA made CD6 sedan from the mid-$20k to $50k would had done it.

Why invest in a market that is significantly shrinking year after year?

 

The sedan market has shrunk year to year-

 

 

2015-43.3% totals sales where sedans

2016-39.2%

 

Why invest in an market that has been shrinking when you can invest in something that is growing and makes more $&&?

[akirby]

Why invest in an market that has been shrinking when you can invest in something that is growing and makes more $&&?

You can say this 100 times a day and some people just won’t get it.

[RadicalX]

I believe that everything can improve with the Chinese factory. Ford needs to grow and consolidate in the Chinese market urgently. Being well in China, everything will be easier. Are the new Focus already being sold in China?

Edited October 22, 2018 by RadicalX

[theoldwizard]

The world is changing. It always has and it always will.

 

Mark fields was afraid of change, so he did nothing. Kind of hard to blame him too much when big money is rolling in the doors. It's the old "If its not broke, don't fix it !" That works for a while.

 

Hackett understands the world is changing and Ford is late. Many people including myself, do agree with what he is prognosticating.

 

BEV - Yep, there will be a demand for them. The question is how big. One of Hackett's "idols", Tony Seba, predicts that internal combustion engine will be BANNED from large cities by about 2030. There might be some truth to that, but only SOME ! Perhaps the top 10-20 cities in the world will ban internal combustion engines, but can anyone believe they will be banned in Los Angles ? Maybe on Manhattan, but all of New York City ? And where is the electric generation and the rest of the infrastructure going to come from to support these huge numbers of BEVs ?

 

Tony Seba and anyone blindly following him lock-step does not understand reality.

 

Autonomous Vehicle - Yep, there will be a demand for them. How big is a good guess. Some days it does sound nice to be able to step into a pod and let someone else handle the driving. I don't see it working in snow storms and other adverse conditions.

 

Quality - This has always been a problem and likely will remain so. There is no "corporate memory" to say "we tried that and it did not work". Also some new ideas are just not ready for "Prime Time" but get pushed through anyway (Ford dual clutch PowerShift transmission, plastic oil pans on the 2.7L EcoBoost are two recent examples that customers are living through) likely because the "carrot" (cost savings) out ways the risks at least on the surface.

 

How vehicles are actually engineered - This is a big one and one I have spoken out on before and one where Ford could fall into a big trap ! The Ford culture is every engineer is an engineer and should be able to engineer any part on the vehicle. Every manager is a manager and should be able to manage every engineering project.

 

These are incredibly WRONG. When Ford spun off Visteon, they realized that had ZERO audio engineers, no one to cal "BULLSH!T" on what vendors were trying to sell them. About the same time, Ford tried, unsuccessfully, to outsource design and manufacturing of seats. When they decided that didn't work, they had no one with any experience.

 

Can a person trained as a mechanical engineer write software for engine/battery/electric motor/autonomous vehicle navigation ? Can the "best" software engineers be enticed to move to the cold, dreary midwest and take salaries much lower than their counter parts in California ?