Jump to content

Is Ford in trouble?


Recommended Posts

 

 

Never mind, I quoted the wrong post, and don't want to misstate what akirby has been saying. As many have said, Shanks royally screwed the pooch when he prematurely stated Ford's intent for sedans. If the migration to CUV's and SUV's had been allowed to occur organically, it would have been a smoother transition (but not seamless). I wish I could see any evidence that he was disciplined for what he did, but I don't see anything to support the idea.

Edited by Harley Lover
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

What never really came out in public at the time was cost. Ford thought that the cost of a Global Ranger made to US standards would be too close to the cost of the F150.

 

Three things have happened. The F150 got more expensive to build (and still continued to sell well) and careful reuse of major components (10R80, 2.3L EcoBoost, etc) plus sharing many components with the upcoming Explorer and Bronco (so higher volume) has helped reduce the cost of the NA Ranger. Last, the design costs to upgrade the Ranger to meet NA safety standards was rolled up into the redesign of the Global Ranger.

 

Cost is still an issue for Ranger. The high volume the old Ranger enjoyed at the end of its life was due in large part to it low cost. The new one will cost a LOT more. There is a lot of demand at the moment, but it will be interesting to see how sales are a year from now and if F150 has lost any sales.

You do realize that this "New" Ranger is in fact a clever piggy back on the third and final refresh of Gen 1 T6,

the costs for the project have mostly been amortized but this "new" Ranger has to get through to CY2021 or later.

Rumor is that the US approach came after lock-in of final MCE of the global truck, so not much could be changed.

 

By the end of the previous Ranger product cycle, the only vehicles it could sell were cheap $15K Single cabs,

The Explorer Sport Trac (~Crew Cab Ranger) sales numbers were kept in check by strong pricing.

 

Thinking back to Derrick Kuzack's pitch against Ranger (90% of F150 size), they saw it as a threat

but since the financial recovery, F 150 prices have increased opening up space below for Ranger.

Edited by jpd80
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As many have said, Shanks royally screwed the pooch when he prematurely stated Ford's intent for sedans. If the migration to CUV's and SUV's had been allowed to occur organically, it would have been a smoother transition (but not seamless). I wish I could see any evidence that he was disciplined for what he did, but I don't see anything to support the idea.

 

CONCUR ! I never understood why they made that announcement when in fact it was going to take a number of years to phase out sedan production. If they thought it was going to get Wall Street behind them, well, it has NOT !

 

Ford CEO Jim Hackett says fixing carmaker's problems starts with identifying them

 

  • Following the May 2017 ouster of Mark Fields, Ford's new CEO Jim Hackett launched what was billed as an intense, 100-day deep-dive aimed at addressing Ford's problems.
  • Yet, as 2018 rapidly comes to a close, Hackett has offered relatively few, and often inscrutable, indications of what he has in mind.
  • Investors and Ford's own executives are trying to understand precisely what directions he wants them to move in.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

CONCUR ! I never understood why they made that announcement when in fact it was going to take a number of years to phase out sedan production. If they thought it was going to get Wall Street behind them, well, it has NOT !

 

Ford CEO Jim Hackett says fixing carmaker's problems starts with identifying them

 

  • Following the May 2017 ouster of Mark Fields, Ford's new CEO Jim Hackett launched what was billed as an intense, 100-day deep-dive aimed at addressing Ford's problems.
  • Yet, as 2018 rapidly comes to a close, Hackett has offered relatively few, and often inscrutable, indications of what he has in mind.
  • Investors and Ford's own executives are trying to understand precisely what directions he wants them to move in.

 

 

I agree that they totally screwed up on the announcement, being very clear on what they would not be doing and nebulous on what they would be doing. But I don't think they could have been cagey about it or wait much longer with the announcement. As I understand it, Ford was at the decision point on redesigns and were getting lots of questions from suppliers about what's up. A decision to stop all car redesigns and accelerate CUV/SUV/truck development couldn't have been kept quiet, which would have produced even worse uncertainty and speculation in the press than the ham-handed announcement produced.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually Ford has been very clear about their future plans based on several different announcements but you have to read between the lines just a little bit to piece it together. But analysts and reviewers and bloggers want to be spoonfed or they just want something to complain about.

 

The big risk to Ford's plan is that utility sales decrease and that's just not going to happen. You have an entire generation of buyers who grew up in utilities starting with the Explorer in the early 90s so that's what they're used to and that's what they want.

 

A second risk is that buyers don't want or aren't willing to pay a premium for hybrid and phev utilities. But that's not a huge risk since they're based on the non electrified models. Just a waste of R&D and a slightly lower but still healthy profit margin. I don't think that's likely either and positions them well if gas prices skyrocket.

 

Same for AVs and Transportation as a Service. If it doesn't pan out it won't kill the bottom line but it would be a lot of wasted R&D.

 

And don't forget they have a brand new Focus in ROW ready to go if needed. I think once they get the Mexico and Louisville plants converted to C2 they can build some Focus models in North America even if it's just the Active version.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At the end of the life of the old Ranger the engineering and tooling costs were LONG paid for so really the only thing they had to worry about was material and labor costs. They could afford to keep it really cheap. There isn't much in the ford lineup today that has that same luxury.

 

Though not as ancient as Ranger was, half the lineup is up there in age. hah

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And don't forget they have a brand new Focus in ROW ready to go if needed. I think once they get the Mexico and Louisville plants converted to C2 they can build some Focus models in North America even if it's just the Active version.

Ford has been rolling with the punches lately but i like your thoughts on incremental product after the dust settles

and after seeing how Ford's plant in Valencia, Spain operates, I think anything is possible.:).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe this is all part of a ploy to get maximum publicity.

 

"We're dropping all passenger cars except the Mustang!"

 

The result was massive news coverage.

 

Then, after things are sorted out -

 

"We're bringing back the sedan versions of the Focus and Fusion because of popular demand!"

Which would result in far more news coverage than would ever be generated by simply rolling out updated versions of both cars.

Edited by grbeck
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe this is all part of a ploy to get maximum publicity.

 

"We're dropping all passenger cars except the Mustang!"

 

The result was massive news coverage.

 

Then, after things are sorted out -

 

"We're bringing back the sedan versions of the Focus and Fusion because of popular demand!"

Which would result in far more news coverage than would ever be generated by simply rolling out updated versions of both cars.

I don’t think Ford marketing is that savvy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe this is all part of a ploy to get maximum publicity.

 

"We're dropping all passenger cars except the Mustang!"

 

The result was massive news coverage.

 

Then, after things are sorted out -

 

"We're bringing back the sedan versions of the Focus and Fusion because of popular demand!"

 

Which would result in far more news coverage than would ever be generated by simply rolling out updated versions of both cars.

 

They sell it as "we heard you!" "we listen to our customers!"

 

---

 

On the flip side, it makes Ford look indecisive and uncertain, which wall street wouldn't like.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...