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Ford Shrugs Off Being Outsold by FCA: It's a Function of Timing


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I was looking at a 2018 Escape Titanium. The wife wanted it. The salesman made me a screaming deal ($28,000 out the door with 1.9% for 72 months; $7100 trade on her 2013 Fusion that's paid off).

 

In the end....I couldn't give Ford my money right now. I've decided to wait since the Fusion only has 95K miles.

Edited by 351cid
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They did the stupid thing of pulling the sedan plug before the new utilities arrive to offset the losses. So what we're seeing now is tanking sedan sales on top of the aging utility declines.

 

They didn't really pull the plug on Fusion - they just announced they were pulling the plug prematurely. I think the stale styling and lack of big incentives are as much to blame as the announcement for falling Fusion sales.

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They didn't really pull the plug on Fusion - they just announced they were pulling the plug prematurely. I think the stale styling and lack of big incentives are as much to blame as the announcement for falling Fusion sales.

 

I know that. My point was just that right now there's the bad combination of plummeting sedan sales + old utilities = not pretty numbers.

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I know that. My point was just that right now there's the bad combination of plummeting sedan sales + old utilities = not pretty numbers.

 

True. At least they have Ranger about to launch and new utilities around the corner (Aviator, Explorer, new Escape, Maverick, Model E).

 

It's a shame that Ford ends up with gaps of 2-3 years where products languish before getting replaced or updated. Kills all momentum.

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True. At least they have Ranger about to launch and new utilities around the corner (Aviator, Explorer, new Escape, Maverick, Model E).

 

It's a shame that Ford ends up with gaps of 2-3 years where products languish before getting replaced or updated. Kills all momentum.

Hopefully that is done for a while with no new product. Next year is pretty full and 2020 has even more new product.

 

Edge/Nautilus now

Ranger Winter 2019

Explorer/Aviator Late Spring 2019

Escape/Corsair Early Fall 2019

Super Duty Late Fall 2019

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Hopefully that is done for a while with no new product. Next year is pretty full and 2020 has even more new product.

 

Edge/Nautilus now

Ranger Winter 2019

Explorer/Aviator Late Spring 2019

Escape/Corsair Early Fall 2019

Super Duty Late Fall 2019

 

 

The question is what will they do after 2020? Will they keep everything fresh or let them languish again? Maybe going to new shared architectures and cutting Focus and Fusion will allow them to focus better on the remaining products, but I'm not holding my breath.

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The question is what will they do after 2020? Will they keep everything fresh or let them languish again? Maybe going to new shared architectures and cutting Focus and Fusion will allow them to focus better on the remaining products, but I'm not holding my breath.

F-150, Mustang, Bronco, Ranger (NG), Fusion active, Edge, Ecosport, Maverick, Mach1, Expedition and a few other. The next 3 years are very busy from here, now if they keep doing updates after that and can keep quality up is what remains to be seen.

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Mt thoughts on all of this,

 

Ford will do what it's always done and cling to F Series and Next year's fresh new Explorer, Escape and Ranger.

I don't see any other products being such high priority that they will be fast tracked.

 

What I think we're seeing is a pile of half truths cobbled together badly and not really explaining

what will be eventually revealed as huge gaps in delivery for some of those new products.

 

There was absolutely no reason to announce the ending of cars so early, that was a mistake, the supply

of Focus and even Fusion could have been transitioned to Valencia as required some time in the future

avoiding all the bad press

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Focus and Fusion are impossibly unprofitable to import from Europe, there was no reason to expect that to be an option, especially for segments in decline in both sales and margins. And Ford would have to expand production to meet the needs of an unprofitable market.

 

And I don't think Ford was too early, they need to clarify their mission forward and they can't talk about it if they are going to ignore what's happening with their cars. I'm actually impressed by Ford's clear and bold vision, that's what has excited me most about the company. They aren't ignoring their future and they get to prove the skeptics wrong once again. I think Ford is showing leadership, but it certainly helps that I know what's about to come out and I don't see anybody executing such a transformative plan.

 

The only variable is the high degree of government interference in the US economy which is increasing costs and uncertainty. The good thing about that is Ford is already making enormous changes to their business to exist in a weakening economy, those cars would have to go especially now.

Edited by Assimilator
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Ford is adding 6 new name plates by 2020 or 21: Ranger + Bronco + Baby Bronco + MACH1 + AV fleet vehicle + Aviator

 

My guess is these 6 will more than offset the volume lost on 5 that are ending soon: Fiesta + Focus + Taurus + Flex + MKT

 

What remains to be seen is where Fusion volume will go. Ford is on the record saying there will be a new Fusion, but it won't be a traditional sedan.

 

So there is some truth to the "timing is everything" argument. But what would have been more ideal is if the remaining survivors were not so old and running out of steam, especially Escape. I think we won't be talking about Ford's sales problem if Escape was renewed 2 years ago on a 5-year F-150 like model cycle.

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Exactly. A small investment in Escape, Focus and Fusion proper refreshes would have put Ford in a better position now while they're waiting for the new products. They need to stop the rollercoaster dips in between new products.

 

Unfortunately, with launching so many products this year, there'll likely be casualties down the road too.

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Ford is already transforming those car plants it needs for the next products. The Focus was going to stay, but we saw what happened there.

 

I'm not entirely sure where they are going to get the same volume again, Ford is going to be splitting hairs quite a bit on the utility front so I'm not sure where they are going to get that customer diversity again. But despite hemorrhaging car customers, Ford has been keeping things level. That's not an easy thing to do, especially with Ford's Utility weakness right now. I think they are timing it all fairly smartly. Ford has things under control and you don't do that without massive planning and coordination.

 

Ford may not be a in a growth position until 2022+, right now it's about transforming their volume and finding ways to actually make profit from their higher ATPs.

 

Ford is probably in its most precarious position in its history just because it has shifted so much dependency to a single product line, for both sales and profits. But that also means they've given it tremendous resources to minimize risk.

Edited by Assimilator
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Exactly. A small investment in Escape, Focus and Fusion proper refreshes would have put Ford in a better position now while they're waiting for the new products. They need to stop the rollercoaster dips in between new products.

That's been a hallmark of Ford since the industry as a whole stopped updating bodies every year.
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Ford is already transforming those car plants it needs for the next products. The Focus was going to stay, but we saw what happened there.

 

They’re transforming Hermosillo now? While they’re still producing Fusion and MKZ? I doubt that. Fusion is supposed to continue through 2020.

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Theyre transforming Hermosillo now? While theyre still producing Fusion and MKZ? I doubt that. Fusion is supposed to continue through 2020.

Maybe not Hermosillo but they could be working on Cuactitlan.

 

They could be doing what they did with MAP and start installing new equipment in ways that doesn't effect the current process.

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I wonder if the new EV/Mach 1 will be called Fusion- the timing would roughly the same.

 

Going by the silhouetted photo that Ford put out over the next 5 years-I didnt see anything that looked like a white space vehicle the the next Gen Fusion is supposed to be.

 

I think they killed any goodwill the Fusion name had by announcing it/sedans were dying.

 

I see it now....

 

"they still make those?" "I thought they discontinued Fusion"

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"they still make those?"

 

I was watching some dash cam crash videos the other day. I saw there was a Fusion in Europe. I did not know that.

 

American perceptions are short lived. It's not like the Fusion was a bad car. They could keep the name. Or not. I'm not that stuck on it.

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Ford has not officially announced they are keeping the Fusion name, this is rumor and speculation. Fusion will stop production before the end of 2020 with inventory to take it through early 2021 I'm sure. There is a new Crossover (CX Code) tied with the next generation Mondeo (not the forthcoming MCE), that could be a successor. But plans are changing rapidly. That's still many years after Fusion goes out of production.

 

The Mexican plants are getting Mach 1, Maverick, and the "Courier" Crossover and Pickup combo. I'm not entirely sure what plant is getting what. I've said this before but I think one of these vehicles is an EcoSport successor since the next generation EcoSport is not on the NA calendar. If there is a Fusion Crossover successor, not entirely sure where that would be built. Lincoln has their companion utilities as well, one of which is a Chinese exclusive that was originally slated for US import (size of Corsair, but not Corsair).

 

Also regarding Ford's carpocolypse, Ford's announcement also helps to steer customers toward their other products which don't loose money, and it also changes attitudes about the segments they are abandoning, which again plays in Ford's favor. I still think this was all quite smart.

Edited by Assimilator
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