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rmc523

Ford September 2018 Sales Down 11.2% Overall; Lincoln Down 7.2%

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Flex must've had a big fleet contract come in.

 

That's the first time in a long time that I remember seeing F-series numbers down.

Expy had a nice jump. Heavy trucks jumped a lot too for some reason.

 

Navigator seems to be staying at that 1,200 level.

 

Outside of those, the numbers aren't pretty.

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Flex must've had a big fleet contract come in.

 

Outside of those, the numbers aren't pretty.

 

Flex has always been a great product. If Ford actually put a little effort into it, I think it could be a standout vehicle. It's unique, roomy, and people seem to love it (our neighbors are on #2). I almost bought one in 2009 but went with the SHO instead. Update it and advertise the poop out of it and it could be a winner. Especially if they could use the new RWD platform.

 

These numbers are beyond not pretty. Even FCA with ancient platforms, ugly Ram redesign (looks like a Chevy), and crap quality managed +13.93% while Ford is -16.65%. They need new product and advertising ASAP as they are getting their asses handed to them.

Edited by itguy09

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Flex has always been a great product. If Ford actually put a little effort into it, I think it could be a standout vehicle. It's unique, roomy, and people seem to love it (our neighbors are on #2). I almost bought one in 2009 but went with the SHO instead. Update it and advertise the poop out of it and it could be a winner. Especially if they could use the new RWD platform.

 

These numbers are beyond not pretty. Even FCA with ancient platforms, ugly Ram redesign (looks like a Chevy), and crap quality managed +13.93% while Ford is -16.65%. They need new product and advertising ASAP as they are getting their asses handed to them.

 

Everyone knows they need new product. The numbers will start looking a lot better mid to late next year once the new Ranger, Explorer, Aviator, Escape and Corsair come online.

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Sedan sales are cratering-as reflected by the Taurus and Fusion. The C-Max is oop so its 85% decline doesnt count. Im assuming Edge sales are down due to the new model coming out along with the Natuliss

 

I wonder if the reason F-series sales are down is because of super high sales last year when the Super Duty came out?

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Update it and advertise the poop out of it and it could be a winner. Especially if they could use the new RWD platform.

 

I would have seriously considered a Flex if it was on a rwd platform. I just couldn't get past that sideways engine and dinky trans that are the hallmark of the D3/D4 platform. Probably doesn't matter to most, but it cost Ford a buyer in my case.

 

Moving Flex to CD6/rwd/longitudinal drivetrain, going about 4 inches wider to complement the already excellent legroom and move it up to real full size class (i.e. F150/Expy width), and giving it something more exciting than the 3.5L duratec would make for a very compelling family hauler option that really stands out from the crowd.

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The industry is down similarly so this isn't happening in a vacuum. The market is bearing what Ford is willing to price their cars at, you can sell many more cars if you make them cheaper which FCA is very good at.

 

For me the most interesting trend is watching Escape sales evaporate this year. I think this is a segment Ford is having a hard time making money at and is trying to limit those sales instead of maxing out the capacity of the plant. They're the only carmaker with declining utility sales, especially in this segment. Escape has long since disappeared from the top sales charts where it use to live. Part of it is the age of the vehicle and the competition, but I think a big part of it is just the decrease in incentives or fleet distribution. They are also stripping the Escape for cost for 2019 which is another indicator that they are struggling to make profits from the car. We are still further away from a NG Escape than we should be, but it will hopefully address many problems.

 

As for Lincoln, no avoiding a significant down year for the company here. But again we have tons of new products on the plate next year which should balance that out.

 

Ford won't be in a sales growth position for awhile since they are still shedding a host of volume products before their new products arrive, but their new products will be lower volume and more expensive. So I would pay less attention to overall volume if growth is coming in margin rich segments.

Edited by Assimilator

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Sedan sales are cratering-as reflected by the Taurus and Fusion. The C-Max is oop so its 85% decline doesnt count. Im assuming Edge sales are down due to the new model coming out along with the Natuliss

 

I wonder if the reason F-series sales are down is because of super high sales last year when the Super Duty came out?

 

Yeah, hopefully the refreshed Edge and Nautilus help push sales back up - they should arrive on October's sales charts (I believe).

 

Probably right about F-series.

 

The industry is down similarly so this isn't happening in a vacuum. The market is bearing what Ford is willing to price their cars at, you can sell many more cars if you make them cheaper which FCA is very good at.

 

For me the most interesting trend is watching Escape sales evaporate this year. I think this is a segment Ford is having a hard time making money at and is trying to limit those sales instead of maxing out the capacity of the plant. They're the only carmaker with declining utility sales, especially in this segment. Escape has long since disappeared from the top sales charts where it use to live. Part of it is the age of the vehicle and the competition, but I think a big part of it is just the decrease in incentives or fleet distribution. They are also stripping the Escape for cost for 2019 which is another indicator that they are struggling to make profits from the car. We are still further away from a NG Escape than we should be, but it will hopefully address many problems.

 

As for Lincoln, no avoiding a significant down year for the company here. But again we have tons of new products on the plate next year which should balance that out.

 

Ford won't be in a sales growth position for awhile since they are still shedding a host of volume products before their new products arrive, but their new products will be lower volume and more expensive. So I would pay less attention to overall volume if growth is coming in margin rich segments.

 

Escape is also by far the oldest model in the segment:

 

Escape - new for 2013, refresh for 2017, won't be new until 2020 (7 year cycle)

CR-V - new for 2012, refresh for 2015, all new for 2017 (5 year cycle), presumably a refresh for 2020

Rav4 - new for 2013, refresh for 2016, all new for 2019 (6 year cycle)

Tucson - all new for 2016, refresh for 2019 (3 year refresh cycle)

Sportage - all new for 2017, refresh for 2019 (2 year refresh cycle)

 

---

 

As for Lincoln, it's unfortunate to see them down - were there that many fleet sales to trim? I know that was a Hackett directive when he took over. As with Ford, numbers should look better next year with some key product coming as you mentioned.

Edited by rmc523

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$30k transaction price increase on Navigator. WOW!

 

I would love to see a CD6 version of the Flex, though we likely won't be in the market for another due to the fact that our oldest is approaching 16 and we won't be needing that much room much longer.

 

I wonder if the reason F-series sales are down is because of super high sales last year when the Super Duty came out?

 

Super Duty came out 2 years ago. I've had mine for 18 months.

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Flex was something of a Mark Fields pet project, without him there I know there is no advocacy for a successor...if there ever was anyway.

 

The new Explorer and Aviator are certainly more Flex like in their packaging and profile, Explorer is going from a tall brick to low/wide/long. I doubt there is any room for something styled like a Flex with Explorer nearby.

 

I do hope Ford has a more civilized people mover in the works, possible one of the NG transits. It will be critical to their AV business.

Edited by Assimilator

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Flex has always been a great product. If Ford actually put a little effort into it, I think it could be a standout vehicle. It's unique, roomy, and people seem to love it (our neighbors are on #2). I almost bought one in 2009 but went with the SHO instead. Update it and advertise the poop out of it and it could be a winner. Especially if they could use the new RWD platform.

 

These numbers are beyond not pretty. Even FCA with ancient platforms, ugly Ram redesign (looks like a Chevy), and crap quality managed +13.93% while Ford is -16.65%. They need new product and advertising ASAP as they are getting their asses handed to them.

I still have a small hope that the Flex will be one of the "whitespace" vehicles, because they really are thick on the roads out here in Washington. Mine has been amazing, one of the best and most unique vehicles I've owned.

 

The numbers aren't pretty, and I wonder how RAM is getting increases when their quality remains everything we know and remember about FIAT.

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Flex was something of a Mark Fields pet project, without him there I know there is no advocacy for a successor...if there ever was anyway.

 

The new Explorer and Aviator are certainly more Flex like in their packaging and profile, Explorer is going from a tall brick to low/wide/long. I doubt there is any room for something styled like a Flex with Explorer nearby.

 

I do hope Ford has a more civilized people mover in the works, possible one of the NG transits. It will be critical to their AV business.

 

Any next-gen Flex would have to retain the same look as now - a low, long boxy shape to differentiate itself from Explorer.

 

$30k transaction price increase on Navigator. WOW!

 

I would love to see a CD6 version of the Flex, though we likely won't be in the market for another due to the fact that our oldest is approaching 16 and we won't be needing that much room much longer.

 

 

Super Duty came out 2 years ago. I've had mine for 18 months.

 

ATPs of Expy were $63k too! Crazy!

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I would have seriously considered a Flex if it was on a rwd platform. I just couldn't get past that sideways engine and dinky trans that are the hallmark of the D3/D4 platform. Probably doesn't matter to most, but it cost Ford a buyer in my case.

 

Moving Flex to CD6/rwd/longitudinal drivetrain, going about 4 inches wider to complement the already excellent legroom and move it up to real full size class (i.e. F150/Expy width), and giving it something more exciting than the 3.5L duratec would make for a very compelling family hauler option that really stands out from the crowd.

 

I was holding out for the EcoBoost Flex and got very close to pulling the trigger. It was that good. But one drive in the SHO and it was over for the Flex, much to the disdain of the wife. The drivetrain has held up very well - currently @ 126k not all easy miles and it runs great.

 

If they wanted an interesting niche and easy vehicle, stuff the 5.0 a Flex styled RWD/AWD vehicle and I bet it would be a hit.

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FIAT is not a mismanaged company...they have done surprisingly well...it would be best to not totally ignore them or ignore how they have positioned jeep and ram..ram is considered the quitest interior of any truck line..jeep could build shit and we would still see sales...

 

There is some grumbling out there on cost to repair f150's due to the stag beer panels...its not a tidal wave of complaints but its out there...the biggest issue with ford is a plan for the future that nobody has any faith in and the persistent view ford has left the passenger car market..

Edited by snooter

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The numbers aren't pretty, and I wonder how RAM is getting increases when their quality remains everything we know and remember about FIAT.

 

Chrysler has never build a good quality vehicle. I still don't know about how Ram sales are up - they ditched their "tough guy" styling for generic Chevy like styling. And it has the lack of quality they are known for.

 

For me the most interesting trend is watching Escape sales evaporate this year. I think this is a segment Ford is having a hard time making money at and is trying to limit those sales instead of maxing out the capacity of the plant. They're the only carmaker with declining utility sales, especially in this segment. Escape has long since disappeared from the top sales charts where it use to live. Part of it is the age of the vehicle and the competition, but I think a big part of it is just the decrease in incentives or fleet distribution. They are also stripping the Escape for cost for 2019 which is another indicator that they are struggling to make profits from the car. We are still further away from a NG Escape than we should be, but it will hopefully address many problems.

Escape owned that segment for a long time and it sucks to see it in such decline. The 2013 redesign was a smash hit and they should have kept the momentum up. The wife has a 2016 and it's been a decent vehicle. Had some trans issues (rough shifts) but that seems to be a common 6F35 complaint and the dealer replaced a leaky seal in it last year. I had an 18 loaner in the beginning of the year and it was "nice". Nothing special and you could see the de-contenting.

 

Ford can do world class and make a splash. They need to get their butts in gear and do it again or it's going to be a bloodbath like 2006-2008.

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Regarding Fiat/RAM/Jeep - you're underestimating the impact of pricing on sales. Low prices/subsidized leases and low monthly payments will get you sales every time (and kill profits).

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I was hoping Navigator was a success. The MKC restyling does not appear to be panning effect. New Explorer and Escape should bring growth. 2019 can be a great year for Ford with the CD6 and C2 SUVs

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FIAT is not a mismanaged company...they have done surprisingly well...it would be best to not totally ignore them or ignore how they have positioned jeep and ram..ram is considered the quitest interior of any truck line..jeep could build shit and we would still see sales.....

 

They have great advertising and that's it.

 

Jeep has always built shit (look where they fall on long term dependability) and yet they sell. It's because of the ads - they are great and speak to a lifestyle that you want. Ford's ads, well they don't convey any message well other than they have the most loyal buyers.

 

Ram same thing - junk reliability and weak products yet the "Built to Serve" ads are brilliant. Tug at the heartstrings. Ford's Dennis Leary ads are not that good in comparison. Sure they are the biggedt, best, and most advanced but vehicle purchases tend to be emotional...

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Ford is saying last year sales were higher than normal due to Harvey suppressing the previous month's sales and also this year Florence hurt - but they do acknowledge difficulties ahead. Our best hope is now that the modified NAFTA is agreed to Steel and Aluminum prices go down a bit.

 

Obviously Focus sales will continue to drop since what's left is basically the versions no one has wanted yet - last i checked there were no ST's or RS' listed on the dealer inventory's near me. I have to think the now lame duck Fiesta and Fusion will continue to decline - question will these buyers switch to the Escape or Edge or Ecosport - (wonder how many Ecosports Ford can/wants to import a month), So far that has not been happening.

 

The good news is transaction prices are up.

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-02/ford-sales-drop-more-than-projected-a-year-after-harvey-rebound

"It’s a very hard comparison with last year,” said Michelle Krebs, a senior analyst with researcher AutoTrader. “But we do see headwinds building, with higher interest rates being the major one.”

Edited by Fordowner

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Escape down 20% in a segment that is BOOMING sums up Ford's problem in a nutshell.

No, its the advertising or lack thereof

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I was hoping Navigator was a success. The MKC restyling does not appear to be panning effect. New Explorer and Escape should bring growth. 2019 can be a great year for Ford with the CD6 and C2 SUVs

the refreshed MKC has also not been out very long

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I was hoping Navigator was a success. The MKC restyling does not appear to be panning effect. New Explorer and Escape should bring growth. 2019 can be a great year for Ford with the CD6 and C2 SUVs

 

The MKC refresh just hit lots within the last month. Besides, nobody expected it to jump start sales - it just brought it in line with the lineup, and will be completely replaced next year anyway.

 

 

They have great advertising and that's it.

 

Jeep has always built shit (look where they fall on long term dependability) and yet they sell. It's because of the ads - they are great and speak to a lifestyle that you want. Ford's ads, well they don't convey any message well other than they have the most loyal buyers.

 

Ram same thing - junk reliability and weak products yet the "Built to Serve" ads are brilliant. Tug at the heartstrings. Ford's Dennis Leary ads are not that good in comparison. Sure they are the biggedt, best, and most advanced but vehicle purchases tend to be emotional...

 

The Denis Leary F-series ads are the only ads Ford does right...

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I wonder if the reason F-series sales are down is because of super high sales last year when the Super Duty came out?

I'd bet it has a lot more to do with the weather. It rained like nobody's business in September; they must've lost a bunch of selling days to it.

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I still don't know about how Ram sales are up - they ditched their "tough guy" styling for generic Chevy like styling. And it has the lack of quality they are known for.

 

 

 

Which is why you just lease them, and on a lease you are looking at $100-$300 a month less than a F-150.

Edited by jasonj80

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