Ford July 2018 Sales: down 3.1%

[mackinaw]

 

But GM has been less conservative than Ford, keeping more factories open (at least that's my impression) at lower utilization. Then again they could afford to do that since they got a bailout.

 

The 37% capacity figure I mentioned is for four GM car assembly plants. According to the article I read, all of these plants could be on the bubble. But there are political ramifications. It won't play well to close a U.S. plant and shift production to Mexico or China. So GM has to suck it up and operate these plants at a loss. BTW, GM's truck and SUV plants are running at 105% of capacity.

[rperez817]

 

The 37% capacity figure I mentioned is for four GM car assembly plants. According to the article I read, all of these plants could be on the bubble. But there are political ramifications. It won't play well to close a U.S. plant and shift production to Mexico or China. So GM has to suck it up and operate these plants at a loss.

 

I think GM is moving away from the "absorb the loss" approach they did in the past. They ran into that political stuff in South Korea recently. The Chevy Cruze and Orlando plant over there had very low utilization by mid 2017. GM planned to close that plant, but got a lot of political backlash from labor unions and government officials in South Korea. GM went ahead and closed the plant in May.

 

So the U.S. Chevy Cruze plant could close in the next few years if sales of that car don't pick up.

[mackinaw]

So the U.S. Chevy Cruze plant could close in the next few years if sales of that car don't pick up.

 

We'll see. They also make the Cruze in Mexico and could easily import the car instead of building it here. But you can imagine how that would go over in today's political climate.

Lordstown only hope is that they get new product. I'm sure this will be a big bargaining issue in the next round of labor talks.

[snooter]

One way to fix all this is to go to quarterly sales reporting (sarcasm included for free)

Ha

[jasonj80]

I'm sure this will be a big bargaining issue in the next round of labor talks.

GM is going to need a place to move Regal Production as well as if they are going to bring the Envision over from China to avoid the 25% tariff.

[fuzzymoomoo]

GM is going to need a place to move Regal Production as well as if they are going to bring the Envision over from China to avoid the 25% tariff.

D-Ham has room for the Regal. They too are only working on 1 shift.

[Assimilator]

One way to get around the political climate is just to cancel those products you can't build profitably in the US.

[rmc523]

One way to get around the political climate is just to cancel those products you can't build profitably in the US.

 

That would still leave the factory empty?

[mackinaw]

Not to turn this into the GM Forum, but GM currently has five car assembly plants running at low capacity (I originally said four plants, I was wrong). They are Lordstown, Kansas City, Lansing, Hamtramck and Orion Township. Three of these plants are on one shift.

 

And people still wonder why Ford is shifting from cars to trucks and CUV's.

[rmc523]

Over at GMI, we've been having the discussion about Navigator numbers:

 

 

 

 

Navigator:

 

July - 1191
June - 1650
May - 1837
April - 1566

Tell me again how navigator sales are capacity limited if they sold about a third more just two months ago?

 

 

I've said that production may have been affected by the plant fire, and also pointed out that the last three years, July sales have been lower than June and August sales. Anyone have any thoughts on it?

Edited August 2, 2018 by rmc523

[twintornados]

I've said that production may have been affected by the plant fire, and also pointed out that the last three years, July sales have been lower than June and August sales. Anyone have any thoughts on it?

.

Not more that anyone else....sales are cyclical and will continue to go up and down in the near and far future....

 

 

[akirby]

Also remember if one month is above average it reduces inventory available to sell the next month.

[630land]

Buyers that want sedans are getting used rental cars, which are now mostly import makes or GM. And new car buyers want room, not "sportiness". Even Camry and Accord are down.

 

The days of trying to build the "perfect car" for the buff books to crown "10 Best" or "Car of the Year", are over. It's not the 90s where Ford tried to make the 96 Taurus as the next big thing.

 

"Car guys" have to get used to it.

Edited August 2, 2018 by 630land

[rperez817]

And new car buyers want room, not "sportiness".

 

Why not get both? Accord Sport, Camry XSE, Fusion Sport V6, Mazda 6 have roomy interiors and sporty handling. Certainly sportier than any crossover.

[atomcat68]

 

The 37% capacity figure I mentioned is for four GM car assembly plants. According to the article I read, all of these plants could be on the bubble. But there are political ramifications. It won't play well to close a U.S. plant and shift production to Mexico or China. So GM has to suck it up and operate these plants at a loss. BTW, GM's truck and SUV plants are running at 105% of capacity.

 

I hate it when a manufacturer says something like their running at "105%" capacity. I say, "no". They made improvements in efficiency, which should be commended, but that new amount is the 100%. They weren't doing something as well when 100% was lower.

 

Also, by making this statement, they are preparing for a lower number still almost reaching the old 100%, so they are making a preemptive excuse for not operating at full capacity.

[mackinaw]

 

I hate it when a manufacturer says something like their running at "105%" capacity. I say, "no". They made improvements in efficiency, which should be commended, but that new amount is the 100%. They weren't doing something as well when 100% was lower.

 

Also, by making this statement, they are preparing for a lower number still almost reaching the old 100%, so they are making a preemptive excuse for not operating at full capacity.

 

I guess I don't follow you. 105% means they're operating on overtime.

[Assimilator]

It is amazing how profitably inefficient GM can run, Ford has no room for error.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Assimilator

[fuzzymoomoo]

It is amazing how profitably inefficient GM can run, Ford has no room for error.

GM could make way more money if they got rid of a few more plants. Just 1 or 2.

[atomcat68]

 

I guess I don't follow you. 105% means they're operating on overtime.

 

For example, if they made 100 cars an hour running 3 shifts a day so it is going 24 hours a day, but discover that having workers work overtime now makes them build 105 cars an hour, they are not running at 105%. they just found a more efficient way to make more cars per hour by adding worker hours so 105 per hour becomes 100% capacity.

 

There is a certain point where adding hours and overtime or speeding up assembly will not produce cars with desired quality. So when they reach the maximum amount of cars per hour, that is 100%.

[fordmantpw]

 

For example, if they made 100 cars an hour running 3 shifts a day so it is going 24 hours a day, but discover that having workers work overtime now makes them build 105 cars an hour, they are not running at 105%. they just found a more efficient way to make more cars per hour by adding worker hours so 105 per hour becomes 100% capacity.

 

There is a certain point where adding hours and overtime or speeding up assembly will not produce cars with desired quality. So when they reach the maximum amount of cars per hour, that is 100%.

 

No, you're looking at it wrong.

 

They have a target for the assembly plant when it is built to build XXX cars per day. That is 100% capacity. If they are building more than XXX, it is over capacity (> 100%). If they build less than XXX, they are under capacity (< 100%).

[SoonerLS]

I've said that production may have been affected by the plant fire, and also pointed out that the last three years, July sales have been lower than June and August sales. Anyone have any thoughts on it?

I don't know if the sales numbers are lower, but it seems to me that I've seen the biggest incentive packages in July and August.

[Harley Lover]

It is amazing how profitably inefficient GM can run, Ford has no room for error.

 

It's not amazing when the federal government wipes away your debt for free, while Ford soldiers on with its debt load.

[jpd80]

But then Ford gave up brands and excess production capacity, they chose the smaller,

more efficient production footprint back when the SAAR was around 13 million.

 

Even with more inefficiency, GM is walking all over Ford with more large SUV income,

that has been the main difference between the two auto makers in the last four years or so.

 

In a way, I actually wished that Mercury had survived rather than Lincoln, at least that way,

Ford could have replicated a full product line from compacts to Full sized trucks and Utilities.

It could have been Ford's answer to Buick / GMC

Edited August 3, 2018 by jpd80

[akirby]

 

No, you're looking at it wrong.

 

They have a target for the assembly plant when it is built to build XXX cars per day. That is 100% capacity. If they are building more than XXX, it is over capacity (> 100%). If they build less than XXX, they are under capacity (< 100%).

 

The difference is target capacity, not max capacity. You can never exceed 100% of max capacity unless you make infrastructure changes. But you can easily exceed target capacity with overtime, etc.

[fuzzymoomoo]

 

No, you're looking at it wrong.

 

They have a target for the assembly plant when it is built to build XXX cars per day. That is 100% capacity. If they are building more than XXX, it is over capacity (> 100%). If they build less than XXX, they are under capacity (< 100%).

This.

 

Sometimes if things are running well they might slightly bump the line speed up. The status boards all say what percentage the line is running at. Ive seen it as high as 125% a few years ago when small car demand was very high and MAP was running 3 shifts full bore.