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Autoextremist: Ford in Free Fall


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You should write comedy skits for hollywood...

You don’t think people will buy a 30-40 mpg hybrid Escape or Edge over a 25 mpg Fusion sedan if gas prices go back up?

 

That is a fundamental part of Ford’s plan. Where is the flaw?

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You don’t think people will buy a 30-40 mpg hybrid Escape or Edge over a 25 mpg Fusion sedan if gas prices go back up?

 

That is a fundamental part of Ford’s plan. Where is the flaw?

 

Sounds good to me. If Ford adds electrified versions of its pickup trucks also (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and EV) soon, they will be in good shape. I think that's already in Ford's plans.

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Given that sedans-not just Ford sedans-had been on the decline for some time and the auto news sites have spent the last few years with "Crossovers hot, sedans falling" headlines...I'm admittedly not sure that the panic over the car situation is all that sensible.

Yes, I think that the steps taken are extreme and also that Ford's PR department is pathetic at their job(s)...but it's hard to defend the Fusion too vigorously. It's very attractive, but the only way it leads any segment is the horsepower of the Sport model...and even that car got very milquetoast reviews. It's a bunch of motor wrapped in a car whose chassis dynamics are mid-pack.

In a shrinking sedan market, how can many resources be justified for its continuation? I hope that Ford has allowed itself the resilience to respond if the car market bounces back, but I'm also reminding myself that the "plan" is largely revealing itself over the next year or so...and that my information is limited.

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Given that sedans-not just Ford sedans-had been on the decline for some time and the auto news sites have spent the last few years with "Crossovers hot, sedans falling" headlines...I'm admittedly not sure that the panic over the car situation is all that sensible.

 

Yes, I think that the steps taken are extreme and also that Ford's PR department is pathetic at their job(s)...but it's hard to defend the Fusion too vigorously. It's very attractive, but the only way it leads any segment is the horsepower of the Sport model...and even that car got very milquetoast reviews. It's a bunch of motor wrapped in a car whose chassis dynamics are mid-pack.

 

In a shrinking sedan market, how can many resources be justified for its continuation? I hope that Ford has allowed itself the resilience to respond if the car market bounces back, but I'm also reminding myself that the "plan" is largely revealing itself over the next year or so...and that my information is limited.

 

It got rave reviews when new, but the rest of the market has surpassed it.

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Two things that come to mind

1. How much will the 'leaving the car business' affect the sales of the current Ford sedans.

I don't know if I would be buying a vehicle that will no longer be manufactured in 1-3 years.

2. Will the American auto (can't say car anymore) buying public swing back to sedans if gas gets above $4/gal, (which may or may not, I'm already paying $3.10/gal for premium).

 

The Truck/SUV/CUVs MPG drops drastically with strong winds, I rented a Escape one time driving down to Des Moines, in a strong cross winds was getting 14 MPG, had to fill up 120 miles down the road with the 12 gal tank, was doing speed limit of 70MPH.

 

I posted the sales chart several times already.

 

People are buying more trucks while gas prices has been on the upswing. Since 2014, gas prices has roughly increased by 50% and it is also precisely the time where there is a fundamental shift in buying behavior. 70% of new vehicle sales are now "trucks". Even if gas price hits $4 again, I don't see this trend reversing, especially when the "trucks" are getting MPGs that cars used to see. Thanks to Obama 2025 CAFE target, we've largely converted our national SUV and pickup truck fleets to more fuel efficient models and people are not experiencing any fuel cost penalty vs. their previous cars from 5 or 10 years ago. This is why the trend won't reverse - there is no fuel price "shock" even with gas price increases because the overall fuel efficiency has moved the "pain threshold".

 

And as more people buy CUVs to replace their current cars and get better MPG, the trend will just accelerate.

 

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Edited by bzcat
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It got rave reviews when new, but the rest of the market has surpassed it.

Its styling got rave reviews, but it was also knocked for being kinda heavy, for limited rear-seat headroom, and for the typical complaints about underwhelming Ecoboost fuel economy.

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It got rave reviews when new, but the rest of the market has surpassed it.

I don’t think it’s been surpassed at all. It just hasn’t been changed. It doesn’t really matter if it’s better or worse but it needs to be different to entice repeat buyers.

 

Except maybe fuel economy. But then it was never best in class at that anyway.

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You don’t think people will buy a 30-40 mpg hybrid Escape or Edge over a 25 mpg Fusion sedan if gas prices go back up?

That is a fundamental part of Ford’s plan. Where is the flaw?

 

 

You really think many will spend $10 K more for a hybrid Edge if gas prices go up? You don’t think a hybrid Malibu, Accord, or Camry that get better mileage than the hybrid Edge or Escape for far less money won’t be the choice they make? There’s the flaw.

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You really think many will spend $10 K more for a hybrid Edge if gas prices go up? You don’t think a hybrid Malibu, Accord, or Camry that get better mileage than the hybrid Edge or Escape for far less money won’t be the choice they make? There’s the flaw.

 

But people are already shunning sedans and buying those more expensive utilities. There is no reason to think they would make a different decision between a hybrid sedan and a hybrid utility.

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ame="Trader 10" post="1033139" timestamp="1526526468"]

 

But people are already shunning sedans and buying those more expensive utilities.

Can you back your words up with actual facts that Blue Oval sedan buyers shunning Ford sedans are buying Fords more expensive utilities? Fords sales data sure doesn't show this to be fact.

 

Akirby your posts remind me of those irritating Facebook and Google ads that they "push market" think we desire to see. And no matter how many of these ads you click i don't want to see, is a losing battle.. But you are damn good at it I must say, plus your sig shows only high riders in your driveway so at least you put your money with your mouth is.

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Nothing is ever as simple as 100% direct conversion of all car buyers to utilities.It's more likely that Ford is

losing some of its car buyers, converting some to Utilities and picking up new Utility buyers from elsewhere.

 

Listen to Deanh and Ice capades and they will tell you that Ford's non-competitive leasing and incentive

for Fusion and minor updates in the past year have cause them to lose sales as buyers shop elsewhere

even though Ford has gained Utility sales. So assuming that most of Ford's remaining rusted on car

buyers will convert to Utilities may not be true.

 

Be under no illusion that all of this is being driven by Hackett's stated goal of achieving 12% return in North America.

Last month was a good example, less than 40,000 Ford brand car sales out of 196,000 total Ford brand vehicle sales.

If Focus, Fiesta and Taurus/PI were not there, that would be 17,000 fewer cars or just 26,000 cars.

Edited by jpd80
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Can you back your words up with actual facts that Blue Oval sedan buyers shunning Ford sedans are buying Fords more expensive utilities? Fords sales data sure doesn't show this to be fact.

 

Akirby your posts remind me of those irritating Facebook and Google ads that they "push market" think we desire to see. And no matter how many of these ads you click i don't want to see, is a losing battle.. But you are damn good at it I must say, plus your sig shows only high riders in your driveway so at least you put your money with your mouth is.

 

Ford has been struggling with sedans in North America for 40 years.

 

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/ford-says-farewell-sedans/

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It seems to me that sedans are as impractical for hauling cargo (stuff) as coupes are for hauling passengers. I don't think the issue is not offering a sedan, but rather having either

efficient offerings and/or affordable vehicles.

Ford does in fact appear to be tackling the efficiency issue, but approaching it from a

different perspective.

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your sig shows only high riders in your driveway so at least you put your money with your mouth is.

Hmm. I didn't think a Lincoln LS and a Fusion counted as "high riders."

 

Just because he currently has a truck and a CUV doesn't mean he hasn't had sedans.

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Good article, thank you ehaase sir for sharing. Understanding the history lesson makes Ford's decision to phase out their decidedly mediocre sedan lineup in North America very logical.

Well said, i think you've captured the nettle of Ford position, the funding and resources required to elevate cars to the same

quality and sales levels as competitors like Toyota and Honda is just not feasible to Ford compared to embracing Ranger and Utilities.

 

There is still a place for some cars to be sold and it would be a mistake to fully withdraw, so maybe Ford's "near cars" are not a bad option.

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Can you back your words up with actual facts that Blue Oval sedan buyers shunning Ford sedans are buying Fords more expensive utilities? Fords sales data sure doesn't show this to be fact.

 

Akirby your posts remind me of those irritating Facebook and Google ads that they "push market" think we desire to see. And no matter how many of these ads you click i don't want to see, is a losing battle.. But you are damn good at it I must say, plus your sig shows only high riders in your driveway so at least you put your money with your mouth is.

Utilities are growing fast and sedans are shrinking - surely you can’t argue with that. It’s across the board at least here in North America. I don’t think Europe is as drastic but it’s also going in that direction. I didn’t say specifically that a lost Fusion buyer is buying an Edge - but most buyers who choose not to buy a sedan are buying trucks or SUVs. That’s an industry fact. It’s also a fact that Ford is getting conquest sales for their utilities.

 

If the general buying public is already choosing utilities over sedans then a hybrid sedan vs a hybrid utility should be no different.

 

If you have a theory that makes sense otherwise let’s hear it.

 

For the record I’ve owned the following sedans:

 

81 accord

89 civic

91 accord

00 Lincoln LS

06 Fusion

13 Fusion

 

As well as a couple of Rangers. Wife has driven utilities since her 93 Explorer.

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Can you back your words up with actual facts that Blue Oval sedan buyers shunning Ford sedans are buying Fords more expensive utilities? Fords sales data sure doesn't show this to be fact.

 

Akirby your posts remind me of those irritating Facebook and Google ads that they "push market" think we desire to see. And no matter how many of these ads you click i don't want to see, is a losing battle.. But you are damn good at it I must say, plus your sig shows only high riders in your driveway so at least you put your money with your mouth is.

Look at the sales reports over the last few years, for Ford and every other full-line carmaker in our market.

 

CUVs are replacing the typical car at a ridiculous rate. The Nissan Juke, the Honda HR-V, and that little crouton of a Toyota baby CUV are just the latest responses to the market...as is the Ecosport.

 

The numbers are easily found, and the headlines at auto sites have been telling this story for years, now...so I don't know how you possibly missed all the evidence.

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Look at Ford Europe's sales mix, even though it rich in high series passenger models,

that division make only small profits from all the effort going into designing and building

all those products.

 

So it's clear enough that lot of those European Ford vehicles barely cover their own replacement costs.

That message is repeated through most of Ford's ROW divisions. Outside of North America and China,

I don't think that Ford's ROW divisions make any financial sense, they tie up a lot of resources for

very little profit and in some cases, act as drains on profit generated in North America.

 

Rationalization in North America is just the beginning, worrying about the loss of cars in North America

could be the least of our concerns if Hackett is looking to 86 whole divisions.

Edited by jpd80
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I know I won't be getting an SUV of any type, I have no need for one. It's Ford's quality that drove buyers away. Take the transmission problems in the Focus for example or the spitting spark plugs in the F150, or all the recalls on the Escape. That's what hurt Ford. I know the F150 is the best selling truck but just think of all the customers that will probably never buy another one because of the quality issues. Just saying.

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I know I won't be getting an SUV of any type, I have no need for one. It's Ford's quality that drove buyers away. Take the transmission problems in the Focus for example or the spitting spark plugs in the F150, or all the recalls on the Escape. That's what hurt Ford. I know the F150 is the best selling truck but just think of all the customers that will probably never buy another one because of the quality issues. Just saying.

...or the fact that Toyota and Honda were the recall kings for 5 straight years before GM's ignition switch fiasco, FCA's transmission issues and diesel defeat scandals, etc etc etc.

 

If people held serious grudges over stuff like that, no automaker would break even, much less make profits.

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