Autoextremist: Ford in Free Fall

[jasonj80]

. It's time Bill Ford saw the light again like he did when Nasser was killing them.

Bill Ford didn't like Nassar because he called him out on hopping on everything with Tits and A** around the Points and in the Office. There was a reason Bill Ford left the for Ann Arbor area from the points then -- New Neighborhood.

 

Honestly for as big of an A** as Nassar was he was right about the overall market, he knew luxury vehicles, trucks, and common architectures were where the money was going to be at going forward. He knew that Ford needed to shed tens of thousands of workers that did nothing or it would close. He also laid into Bill Ford in places that yelling matches never should have happened for people at his level (Executive dining room, Executive meetings, and worse, Boarders and a Red Wings Suite) And even worse than pissing off the family his plan just sucked for managing all of it and he created a lot of enemies with the cutting.

[2005Explorer]

Bill Ford didn't like Nassar because he called him out on hopping on everything with Tits and A** around the Points and in the Office. There was a reason Bill Ford left the for Ann Arbor area from the points then -- New Neighborhood.

 

Honestly for as big of an A** as Nassar was he was right about the overall market, he knew luxury vehicles, trucks, and common architectures were where the money was going to be at going forward. He knew that Ford needed to shed tens of thousands of workers that did nothing or it would close. He also laid into Bill Ford in places that yelling matches never should have happened for people at his level (Executive dining room, Executive meetings, and worse, Boarders and a Red Wings Suite) And even worse than pissing off the family his plan just sucked for managing all of it and he created a lot of enemies with the cutting.

 

Nasser was a disaster. I remember the late 90's early 2000's de-contenting of everything. I remember his terrible performance in front of Congress defending the Explorer from faulty Firestone tires. I remember all of his purchases of luxury brands while he allowed the core Ford-Lincoln-Mercury products to fall into a terrible state of poor quality. Products like the Taurus and Sable that once were class leading being destroyed in order to buy up more stuff that did nothing to help the core line. Last, I remember when he ripped the blue Ford oval off of the headquarters building because he was building some "new Ford Motor Company" that ended up finally collapsing a few years later. I don't have any idea what you are talking about as far as Nasser being upset about some affair that Bill Ford might or might not have had, but I can tell you if Nasser had been allowed to run Ford into the great recession we would no longer have an original since 1903 Ford Motor Company today.

[Assimilator]

I agree you can't stop the press from creating sensational headlines, which they probably would have done anyway - but you also can't blame anyone but Ford for the way the message was conveyed.

 

There was absolutely no reason to say anything about sedans going away. They should have instead focused on the new vehicles they were introducing or planning. Focus wasn't supposed to be back for another 12+ months and Fusion isn't going away for another 3-4 years. It was a stupid thing to say and I think it was done off the cuff at the last minute without a lot of thought.

 

Just to clarify, Fusion is going away within the next 2 years according to Ford. They will be reducing their car fleet to Fusion Active and Mustang in 2 years.

[jasonj80]

 

Nasser was a disaster. I remember the late 90's early 2000's de-contenting of everything. I remember his terrible performance in front of Congress defending the Explorer from faulty Firestone tires. I remember all of his purchases of luxury brands while he allowed the core Ford-Lincoln-Mercury products to fall into a terrible state of poor quality. Products like the Taurus and Sable that once were class leading being destroyed in order to buy up more stuff that did nothing to help the core line. Last, I remember when he ripped the blue Ford oval off of the headquarters building because he was building some "new Ford Motor Company" that ended up finally collapsing a few years later. I don't have any idea what you are talking about as far as Nasser being upset about some affair that Bill Ford might or might not have had, but I can tell you if Nasser had been allowed to run Ford into the great recession we would no longer have an original since 1903 Ford Motor Company today.

I agree, The problem was his management style, but more importantly even with all the cutting he left kingdoms dictate. He however was the push for DEW98 that vehicles could be on common platforms and sold as Lincolns and Jaguars only 3 models were built when there was going to be 8, he started development of the 3.5L engine program and hybrids. That the Explorer could handle better with IRS and be more car like as that is how people were driving them. The issue was that people in Dearborn (and California for a time) and People in Europe didn't want to allow or give anything away to other departments, they were scared that allowing someone else to do something would lead to being cut. He just couldn't fire the people at the top that needed to be, because he didn't have the backing of Ford. Fields was a far worse CEO than Nassar was. De-contenting was how bonus were done, you cut cost from a program you got a % of the savings, that led to hard cost cutting as it was putting $ in peoples pockets.

Edited May 11, 2018 by jasonj80

[2b2]

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Just to clarify, Fusion is going away within the next 2 years according to Ford. They will be reducing their car fleet to Fusion Active and Mustang in 2 years.

not counting whatever Ford makes from the E1 platformitecture

[akirby]

Just to clarify, Fusion is going away within the next 2 years according to Ford. They will be reducing their car fleet to Fusion Active and Mustang in 2 years.

According to Ford there is no timeline for cancelling Fusion yet. Fiesta and Taurus go away in 2 years, not Fusion.

[AlRozzi]

According to Ford there is no timeline for cancelling Fusion yet. Fiesta and Taurus go away in 2 years, not Fusion.

I am still willing to bet Fusion name will not die, but become

Fusion 'Active.' If I am wrong may lightning strike me and burn off

what remains of the hair on my head!

[akirby]

I am still willing to bet Fusion name will not die, but become

Fusion 'Active.' If I am wrong may lightning strike me and burn off

what remains of the hair on my head!

I think that’s a given.

[rperez817]

According to Ford there is no timeline for cancelling Fusion yet. Fiesta and Taurus go away in 2 years, not Fusion.

 

Taurus production for U.S. ends March 2019 and Fiesta ends May 2019. Both models have a very slow sales rate. So 2019 Fiesta and Taurus should be available to buy as new vehicles well into 2020 and probably 2021 too. https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a20066196/ford-killing-focus-fiesta-north-america-2022/

[akirby]

 

Taurus production for U.S. ends March 2019 and Fiesta ends May 2019. Both models have a very slow sales rate. So 2019 Fiesta and Taurus should be available to buy as new vehicles well into 2020 and probably 2021 too. https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a20066196/ford-killing-focus-fiesta-north-america-2022/

 

 

And what difference does that make?

[rperez817]

 

And what difference does that make?

 

You said Taurus and Fiesta are going away in 2 years. Ford is ending production of both models within 1 year. But there should be lots of 2019 Fiesta and Taurus sitting on dealer lots unsold in 2020 and 2021.

[silvrsvt]

 

You said Taurus and Fiesta are going away in 2 years. Ford is ending production of both models within 1 year. But there should be lots of 2019 Fiesta and Taurus sitting on dealer lots unsold in 2020 and 2021.

 

 

I wouldn't bet on that- its not like Ford wouldn't mind making more Explorers/PIUs at the expense of the Taurus/PI sales. They aren't going to stock pile them like they did Foci.

 

No idea what they are doing with the Fiesta, but I'd expect the same there-Is there any clue was to what is replacing it? The Baby Bronco? If so, that means the Bronco and Baby Bronco are going to launch around the same time.

[J-150]

I am still willing to bet Fusion name will not die, but become

Fusion 'Active.' If I am wrong may lightning strike me and burn off

what remains of the hair on my head!

Accord Crosstown

Corolla IM

Legacy Outback

 

Its been done.

[AlRozzi]

I think that’s a given.

Baldness does run in my family.

[AlRozzi]

Accord Crosstown

Corolla IM

Legacy Outback

Its been done.

I'm just referring to the Fusion name. I'd bet it lives on.

 

Speaking of names, if the Pinto name were brought back it would reestablish

the King Ranch! Mustang/ Maverick/ Bronco/ Pinto:-)

[jpd80]

 

You said Taurus and Fiesta are going away in 2 years. Ford is ending production of both models within 1 year. But there should be lots of 2019 Fiesta and Taurus sitting on dealer lots unsold in 2020 and 2021.

Ford doesn't make that many Fiestas, maybe 5K/mth, so not much inventory to work down, maybe six months max.

Equally,Taurus /PIU is now minor volume at Chicago and will be gone in 12 months when CD6 Explorer and Aviator arrive.

 

So, by 2019 no more Focus (158K), C-Max (18K), - 176K of annual car sales cut

and by 2020, Taurus (33K), PIU (7K) and Fiesta (48K) - that's another 88K of annual car sales cut

 

Without any change in Fusion sales, Ford's sales of remaining vehicles could be down to less than 290K by the start of 2020

Add in wastage of Fusion sales and the figure easily gets to 250K - approximately 10% of of total; Ford brand vehicle sales in 2017

 

 

Ford brand's 2017 sales of Sedans from 555K down to 291K sales on Total Ford brand sales of 2,475,556 sales.

the resulting percentage of car sales versus an assumed same total number of ford brand sales becomes the

10% figure Ford quoted.

Edited May 11, 2018 by jpd80

[akirby]

What would you say if Ford's sales volume was down by 10% but profits and margin were up? That's the likely result.

[jpd80]

What would you say if Ford's sales volume was down by 10% but profits and margin were up? That's the likely result.

Absolutely and I can think of no better example than in 2019, 125K Ranger sales mostly dual cabs

replacing a similar number of Focus / C-max sales in 2018. (2020 sees high profit Bronco with 60K sales?)

 

The next example would be CD6 Explorer/Aviator swallowing up current production of Taurus and PIU.

those 40K combined annual sales then become mostly new Aviator sales with much higher ATP.

 

The explanation in my previous post was to simply illustrate how Ford could achieve its goal of

90% truck and Utility sales without Fusion being part of that cull...

 

And if Ford is prepared to let Fusion remain at Hermosillo for the next few years, does that open the door

to a new model SWB C2 Ute along side it (as was planned with Focus) the new model gradually increases

production as Fusion approximates the slow decline of D3 Taurus at CAP to a point where it finishes quietly.

Edited May 11, 2018 by jpd80

[jpd80]

the white spaced vehicles have me intrigued, we know that Oakville will eventually change away from Flex / MKT

probably as Aviator begins arriving - so could we see a C2 based crossover go in there adding say another 100K/year?

That may be a vehicle well positioned as export to ROW alongside Edge.

Edited May 11, 2018 by jpd80

[ehaase]

What would you say if Ford's sales volume was down by 10% but profits and margin were up? That's the likely result.

 

That would be great but too many people on the various forums get some kind of joy complaining about Ford dropping cars that most of them wouldn't buy anyway.

Edited May 12, 2018 by ehaase

[fuzzymoomoo]

 

That would be great but too many people on the various forums get some kind of joy about Ford dropping cars that most of them wouldn't buy anyway.

Hi, nice to meet you. Ive been very vocal about this and have a brand new Ford sedan barely a week old in my garage right now.

[akirby]

Since when does explaining why something makes business sense constitute being happy about it?

[jpd80]

Since when does explaining why something makes business sense constitute being happy about it?

This.

It was like when we discussed Ford passing on T6 Ranger, people viewed any explanation as agreement with Ford's decision

[2005Explorer]

What would you say if Ford's sales volume was down by 10% but profits and margin were up? That's the likely result.

The only issue I have with killing most of your entry level vehicles is that you have just given all those young customers away to Toyota. Honda, Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, etc. Why do we think that a young customer who has a great experience in a Corolla or Civic won't stick with Toyota or Honda when they get older and can afford a premium SUV or truck? If your average customer age goes way up and you can't get young customers into your dealership that will end up biting you in the rear in 10-20 years. You might say... well they've got the EcoSport! IMHO that vehicle is overpriced for being so small and underpowered. The Escape is better, but a much larger step up and why would a young Corolla driver pick it over a Rav4 when they want to move up? They won't.

 

Of course a company needs to be as profitable as possible, but sometimes a product that doesn't create much profit helps drive sales of the products that do. Cutting out products that might appeal to those 21-35 year old buyers seems just fine on paper because your ATPs will go through the roof, but what happens when you try and get those customers back in 10 years for a more expensive vehicle? Good luck. The goal should be to create repeat customers for life. Ford already struggles with this outside of the F-Series. Focusing only on the most profitable vehicles with high MSRPs might not be the best long term solution.

[akirby]

That’s a popular theory but there is very little evidence to support that theory the last 10 years.