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Ford giving up on Fiesta, Focus and Fusion


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I think Fiesta going away in the US is foregone conclusion. Subcompact car sales are stuck in reverse. Even segment leaders like Nissan Versa and Kia Rio sales are falling. And BMW has pretty much stopped trying to grow the Mini business.

 

Focus seems to have a long future ahead of it as it might be the only traditional car in Ford's line up in the US. I think giving up on local assembly is still a pretty bonehead move but at least we know with C2's flexible architecture, it shouldn't be that difficult to bring it back if the market changes direction.

 

Fusion is clearly on the bubble in the US. Other mid size sedan sales are not that hot either but they have a larger base to fall from (e.g. Accord, Camry, Altima, and combined Sonata/Optima volume). If you ask me a year ago, I would have said Ford should make sure Focus and Fusion use the same platform and they should build them in the same plant in NAFTA zone. But with the decision to not build Focus at all, it seem to unravel Fusion more than Focus itself. I guess what Ford has to figure out with mid size sedan is are we looking at a Windstar or a Ranger situation.

 

Let me explain... one of those was a permanent demand shift, and the other was an internal Ford problem. When Ford looked at the minivan business in early 2000s it correctly predicted that the market segment was shrinking. People were not replacing their minivans... they were buying SUVs. While sales was (and still is) pretty robust, it only had room for 2 or 3 players. So Ford exited the business and essentially doubled down on SUVs. The Ranger decision was not the same. The small pickup truck market was in flux with several players leaving but Ford was a dominant player. It had the resources to update and stay in the game. What drove the final decision was the fact that Ford wanted to close the Twin Cities assembly plant in MN. The cost of updating that ancient facility to Ford's new production systems proved too costly and Ford didn't think it could recover the investments. One of the option on the table back then was to import the Ranger from Thailand if the US-Thailand free trade deal had gone thru (to avoid the Chicken Tax)... but that didn't happen so it left that business. In retrospect, I think that was probably not the right one. Of course we have the hindsight of gas prices falling and pickup trucks becoming family vehicles.

 

But what I'm trying to draw is the parallel to the Fusion decision now... is Fusion more like Windstar (permanent change in consumer demand) or something internal (Ford doesn't have the capacity - both capital and physical - to build a proper replacement). The Fusion decision is further complicated by the fact that it sells outside the US... again very similar to the Ranger situation a decade ago. Outside the US, there is still demand for a mid size sedan just like there was demand for a proper pickup truck (hence T6 program).

Edited by bzcat
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The Fusion decision is further complicated by the fact that it sells outside the US... again very similar to the Ranger situation a decade ago. Outside the US, there is still demand for a mid size sedan just like there was demand for a proper pickup truck (hence T6 program).

Haven't Mondeo sales collapsed even more than Fusion sales?

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I do believe midsized sedan sales are also down in Europe which is also shifting to more utilities.

 

I think Fusion will be a casualty of not enough factory capacity in North America. But it might return in a few years either as a longer/wider focus or as a performance vehicle on CD6.

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Haven't Mondeo sales collapsed even more than Fusion sales?

 

Mondeo sales in Europe are falling... I wouldn't say collapsed. Neither is Fusion here... sales is slowing falling but it still moves a lot of volume. It is still either the #1 or #2 selling non-luxury brand midsize car in every EU market (the other top seller is either VW Passat or Skoda Superb depending on which country).

 

And Ford sells more Mondeo in China then anywhere else and at this point, the model is starting to lose steam because it is so old. So a self-fulfilling prophecy...

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It shouldn't be surprising that the Taurus will likely remain in production through the 2019 MY ahead of the shutdown in mid 2019 for the 2020 Explorer/Aviator changeover. Once the changeover happens (along with the Transit update), all the parts for the Taurus/Flex/MKT will become unavailable and their replacements will be in play anyway. Taurus is obviously a long extinct vehicle class regardless.

 

Fiesta is also going to remain for a little while longer, although a facelift for the old model is rumored for the Americas which the US probably won't benefit from. Fiesta was doomed for the US when they decided not to update it for the new model and I don't think any of us want it to remain in that state anyway.

 

I don't think Focus is a sure bet for the US as originally planned since they cancelled the US reveal and don't want to talk about it anymore. The 1+ year hiatus will also erase the Focus brand and customers very quickly, especially if they don't even want to talk about a US replacement ahead of the hiatus which isn't even happening in the markets that got their reveal. Remember the Focus is coming online at the same time in the Chinese market as the US, so what's the holdup? Ford also didn't talk about new Focus in their North American Uncovered event which is another red flag. Either they are still figuring it out or they are just going to quietly shelve it while people are left assuming a new one is coming.

 

Fusion is one that's a little harder to crack since the Fusion appears to be diverging from Mondeo which is getting a more significant mechanical and visual update in the ROTW (which might be the cancelled update for the US). The inconsequential 2019 Fusion update leaves it pretty vulnerable to competition so they are going to be facing continued customer loss and value degradation. Ford also doesn't have much financial flexibility right now so they may just be budget constrained and need to coast on their old stuff until they have revised budgets, but I suspect they just need to make tough decisions on factory allocation. The reality is that it's too late for Fusion at this point to remain viable as the eldest and least modernized product in the segment for many more years to come. Ford has a history of coasting on aging products until the future becomes clearer and their engineering portfolio is modernized. that might be the case with Fusion if they've chosen to invest their money into growth segments while reassessing their loss-leaders. The most recent example was Expedition/Navigator which weathered the collapse of the market with threat of cancellation until it was time to reinvest and grow. Then there is Taurus which clearly isn't going to see a renaissance at this point...and I suspect neither is Fusion but at least they need to figure out where the bottom is. There are a number of vehicle architectures closely related to the Fusion CD4 that will need to be updated with the new FWD architecture which should be arriving around 2022, a new Fusion might arrive with them. But then again, Ford may have some more innovative Crossover form factors instead which might transition Fusion away from the sedan anyway.

Edited by Assimilator
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I dont have any F's left for ford, but it seems F's at ford are running short as well......if ford can react quickly to future inflationary pressures and unexpected steep rises in gas prices then this short term idea of a truck only company may be correct...however the track record of the big 3 in these areas is utter abysmal...

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Wacky idea, dont know how feasible is:

 

Take advantage of available capacity at both FRAP and Oakville by moving Fusion to CD6 and split production between the 2.

This. Especially if the next MKZ or whatever name it will adopt is said to be built at FRAP. Alongside the next Continental if it happens.

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I dont have any F's left for ford, but it seems F's at ford are running short as well......if ford can react quickly to future inflationary pressures and unexpected steep rises in gas prices then this short term idea of a truck only company may be correct...however the track record of the big 3 in these areas is utter abysmal...

It’s not a truck only company and what they are doing is exactly to prepare for future gas price hikes and electric vehicles.

 

Try to pay attention.

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This. Especially if the next MKZ or whatever name it will adopt is said to be built at FRAP. Alongside the next Continental if it happens.

I wasnt thinking of MKZ at the time but yeah obviously it would go to either one

 

I meant literally splitting Fusion production between Oakville and Flat Rock.

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just-imho, it's very easy to be led astray by the way Ford is mostly mum and letting the media ramble

What I try to remember is, other than a nebulous electric architecture,

all sub-F-series vehicles will be on the C2 or cD6, both capable/adaptable for any bodystyle.

The remaining question imho is which factory gets which? ...don't see any reason for one with both.

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just-imho, it's very easy to be led astray by the way Ford is mostly mum and letting the media ramble

What I try to remember is, other than a nebulous electric architecture,

all sub-F-series vehicles will be on the C2 or cD6, both capable/adaptable for any bodystyle.

The remaining question imho is which factory gets which? ...don't see any reason for one with both.

Correct, so will it be the case that North America becomes mostly CD6 and T6 while China, Europe and ROW are mostly C2?

 

Is Ford NA about to go on the offensive with a mostly RWD line up?

Edited by jpd80
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Fuzzy might be on to something-

 

I don't think Edge/Nautilus volume will be enough to keep Oakville busy with two shifts-esp if they are building those products in plants in China also. Ford has stated they expect the Kuga/Escape and Explorer to be the heavy hitters in the CUV market (Not sure if this just NA or World wide though)

 

The Mustang and Conti at Flat Rock is good for about a shift worth of work. The new EV vehicle seems like its going to be low production also and geared towards fleet/work markets, but that will be in its own building.

 

So given the fact that Oakville and Flat Rock aren't going to be having at least two shifts, shows to me that they can fit another product or two in and the general closeness of them (roughly 200 miles apart) would make sharing stamping etc easier also.

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Wacky idea, dont know how feasible is:

 

Take advantage of available capacity at both FRAP and Oakville by moving Fusion to CD6 and split production between the 2.

 

Didn't I say this months ago? Not sure about literally splitting between the two, though.

 

Fuzzy might be on to something-

 

I don't think Edge/Nautilus volume will be enough to keep Oakville busy with two shifts-esp if they are building those products in plants in China also. Ford has stated they expect the Kuga/Escape and Explorer to be the heavy hitters in the CUV market (Not sure if this just NA or World wide though)

 

The Mustang and Conti at Flat Rock is good for about a shift worth of work. The new EV vehicle seems like its going to be low production also and geared towards fleet/work markets, but that will be in its own building.

 

So given the fact that Oakville and Flat Rock aren't going to be having at least two shifts, shows to me that they can fit another product or two in and the general closeness of them (roughly 200 miles apart) would make sharing stamping etc easier also.

 

I've said for a while now that I think we'll see Mustang, Conti, MKZ, and the AV vehicle at FRAP.

 

Oakville would keep Edge/Nautilus, while MKT/Flex would go away.

 

Wild cards are: Fusion, "Mach 1" and Hermosillo.

 

I was going to throw Mach 1 into the FRAP category for some volume (but not overwhelming volume to affect the other models), but then I remembered fuzzy's comments about it not being able to make crossovers......though I guess we're not sure how tall the Mach 1 will be - is it effectively a raised sedan, or is it a normal crossover? If a raised sedan, I could see it at FRAP, if a crossover, at Oakville.

 

Splitting production of Fusion between 2 plants as fuzzy suggested seems unnecessarily difficult, but I guess they did do it before for a while with production in Hermosillo and some at FRAP.

 

The big question is what will be produced at Hermosillo? I guess baby bronco will have to be made somewhere. What's slated for Cuautitlan after Fiesta dies?

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