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Redesigning the Industry- The future of the auto industry


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Yes sir. One thing that says is that the technology for autonomous flying and driving already exists.

 

First, the problem set for flying is so much smaller​ than driving, and 70 years after semi-autonomous flight was demonstrated, fully autonomous flight is not in use.

 

And although equipped with an auto-pilot, the 707 could ​not​ fly itself. An autopilot is basically adaptive cruise control with lane keeping assist.

 

Second, your statement that the technology for autonomous driving "exists" is, frankly, false, in every application except for exceedingly small and exceedingly well-mapped corners of the world.

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The thing is, no matter how/when this autonomous deal goes down, there will still be a significant need for non-autonomous vehicles. But, the way some of these auto executives are talking you would come to the conclusion that ALL the vehicles in the future will be autonomous, electric, and owned by a 'transportation provider'.

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the way some of these auto executives are talking you would come to the conclusion that ALL the vehicles in the future will be autonomous, electric, and owned by a 'transportation provider'.

 

History tends to repeat itself, and people tend not to learn from history.

 

Possibly, quite possibly, those two things are related.

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Automakers are playing a PR game and they know the technology can be applied to cars with drivers, too. So they really don’t have much to lose.

 

Right. Nobody wants to be branded a Luddite or dinosaur by the press. If you play lip service to the new flying car and it doesn't happen as quickly as some people imagine then you're still developing technologies that you're going to need along the way.

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So what happened to the plan where cars were gong to be hired by the hour?

Uber & Lyft.....

 

Everyone just assumes that ride sharing will go autonomous but I suspect the

low cost of service delivery will make Autonomous too expensive.......

Edited by jpd80
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Funny thing about Lyft and Uber, they are basically going to try to replace their 'employees' (drivers) with ownership of autonomous EV's. I suspect their business model really doesn't work unless they get away with paying their 'employees' on average a wage far less than most any legal minimum (when you factor in vehicle expenses). I figure they know this won't last forever and their best bet at long term profitability is to not pay for drivers at all. EV ownership will likely be less expensive.

 

Other things to consider: While the major auto manufacturers are throwing $billions at this technology, a lot of automotive suppliers are realigning themselves for the autonomous EV business. Things are happening that were inconceivable a few years ago. Bosch no longer makes alternators or starters, ZF just canned their CEO for not reducing their exposure to the 'conventional' automotive business, Delphi is pretty much out of everything except self-driving and connectivity.

 

Seems this whole industry is real sure the future is in autonomous EV's.

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Funny thing about Lyft and Uber, they are basically going to try to replace their 'employees' (drivers) with ownership of autonomous EV's. I suspect their business model really doesn't work unless they get away with paying their 'employees' on average a wage far less than most any legal minimum (when you factor in vehicle expenses). I figure they know this won't last forever and their best bet at long term profitability is to not pay for drivers at all. EV ownership will likely be less expensive.

Think McDonalds business model, provide everything the franchisee will need and by doing so,

reduce the ride share companies exposure to owning / maintaining a fleet by making profits

on arranged leasing packages.and access to network and software for calculating fees.

 

Currently Uber and Lyft have practically no financial exposure while franchisees take most of the risk and expenses.

I don't see them moving away from this to having fixed costs of autonomous fleet vehicles just to avoid paying drivers.

 

No, they're going to sell the idea of franchisees doing something else while the autonomous vehicle earns them money,

the big question is how much is that going to cost them and will franchisees be forced to buy multiple vehicles to ensure

that enough income continues as more and more competitors start doing the same thing.

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What I love about all these pronouncements is that they're all supposed to happen soon, but not so soon that you'll be able to remember the promise when they fail to keep it.

 

Like VW's "Our EV revolution is coming in 2020!!!"

 

And in 2020, when we're all so busy finding out what happened within the last five minutes to the 8000 people we follow on Twitter, we'll have completely forgotten about it.

 

See also: Musk's semi, roadster, and GM's 'dense urban' autonomous fleet.

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Right. Nobody wants to be branded a Luddite or dinosaur by the press........

 

Don't forget Wall Street. The reason Tesla stock is so overvalued and the reason GM stock price has increased so much over the past year is that Wall Street views these two companies as having a definite vision of the future. Ford less so. It doesn't matter that autonomous cars, and BEV's, are still years away from mass market acceptance, it's not the here and now that counts, it's the next five to ten years Wall Street is looking at.

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What I love about all these pronouncements is that they're all supposed to happen soon, but not so soon that you'll be able to remember the promise when they fail to keep it.

 

Like VW's "Our EV revolution is coming in 2020!!!"

 

And in 2020, when we're all so busy finding out what happened within the last five minutes to the 8000 people we follow on Twitter, we'll have completely forgotten about it.

 

See also: Musk's semi, roadster, and GM's 'dense urban' autonomous fleet.

The other side to this is by providing early versions of these pioneering vehicles, those early adopters (customers)

will soon work out if those vehicles are what they actually want or do they pose more problems than they are worth...

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I'm a little surprised at the continued urbanization trend. Once I'm not tied to a desk I'm getting away from the city. I suppose "these kids today"...

 

 

Look at it world-wide...as the population increases and jobs are located in metro areas...people will want to live close to their job.

 

This isn't the US or Canada, which are are some of the biggest countries on earth-China is the biggest, but every one is populating city areas because that is where the jobs are.

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  • 5 weeks later...

There was a columnist in PC Magazine who I feel he got it right.

Autonomous cars? Probably not.

Nanny cars? yea, (crossing the line, getting to close etc).

 

I have yet to see an article on how much the self driving cars will cost, compared to regular cars.

Also the cost of maintenance, what happens when a sensor goes out and it's $300-$500 +? You have a 3000 pound paper weight until the part comes in from China, 3 months later?

Finally, until these cars are run in the weather we are having this past week, we won't know how they handle snow storms, or fluffy snow coming down etc.

 

As for flying cars, as Red Forman from the That 70's Show, --- We were promised hover cars, what happened to them?

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