Biker16 Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-05-11/toyota-hits-a-wall Toyota just can't catch a break. Annual sales volumes in China broke through the 1 million unit mark in December and rose 33 percent from a year earlier in the March quarter, the best performance since 2010. In Japan, the automaker has snapped an 18-month run of weak sales in the past two quarters, with volumes rising 9.9 percent from a year earlier in the three months to March 31. Toyota's forecast dividend yield 3.98% In the U.S., April sales beat estimates, despite a decline in its Lexus luxury division. Going into Wednesday's annual results, not one of the 29 analysts tracked by Bloomberg had a sell rating on the stock, and 19 rated it a buy. Signs of Spring? All that sounds pretty healthy until you look at the stock market. Toyota's share price slid to a three-year low of 5,278 yen last month , making it the worst performer in the Bloomberg World Auto Manufacturers Index over the past six months, after Mazda and Changan Automobile. Relative to blended forward 12-month earnings estimates, Toyota's share price over the past 30 days has been bouncing around the lowest levels in data going back to 2005. Leaders and Laggers Best and worst performers in the Bloomberg World Auto Manufacturers Index (six-month moves*) Source: Bloomberg * Six months to May 10, 2016. Moves shown are for total return, in local currencies. Sometimes, the bullish analysts have it right, and sometimes the bears are on the money. In this instance, it's looking like the latter: Fourth-quarter net income came in at 427 billion yen ($3.9 billion), about 7.7 percent below analyst estimates. Next year looks even worse. Net income for 2017 is projected to be 1.5 trillion yen, the least since 2013 and 31 percent below where analysts were seeing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fgts Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Toyota hits a wall.... new SUA case??. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev-Mo Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Can't believe that the RAV4 outsells the Escape. Toyota consumers are either blind, or idiots - maybe both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PREMiERdrum Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Can't believe that the RAV4 outsells the Escape. Toyota consumers are either blind, or idiots - maybe both. Locally, at least, the RAV4 has by far the most generous incentives, especially lease deals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Can't believe that the RAV4 outsells the Escape. Toyota consumers are either blind, or idiots - maybe both. Brand loyalists can be both sometimes - including blue oval fans. If you like Camrys and Corollas you'll feel right at home. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grbeck Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 The RAV4 debuted in North American before the Escape, so it was able to "conquest" customers from other brands, including Ford. A friend had a reliable 1989 Escort that went for well over 100,000 miles. When he finished flight school and bought a new vehicle in 1999, he switched to the RAV4, as Ford didn't offer anything like it at the time. He has stayed with Toyota ever since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bolt in blue Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 He has stayed with Toyota ever since. I don't get that sentiment - even if I'm happy with a brand, I always cross shop vehicles. Too big a purchase for something that I will keep a long time to not know the whole field. When I bought my Escape, my initial search for a new vehicle contained between 35 and 40 models. I got that down to around 5 fairly fast, but looked seriously at all of those options. I've been very happy with Ford and would start there if replacing a vehicle, but I'd give the competition in that class a serious look before buying. I think that someone who blindly buys Toyota today must not keep their vehicles very long. I've had several Toyotas as rentals recently and have been pleasantly surprised at how they drive, but every Toyota in the family in the past decade has not been well built and has required a lot of service. What a far cry from mid 90s Toyotas that were practically indestructible - I know several people driving old Camrys with 300k+ miles and no mechanical problems yet. We put an engine in a Corolla around the 5 year mark - 1 month out of powertrain warranty and well under on mileage for a coolant leak out of the block. Not the same kind of construction! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen White Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 I'm the same way. I shopped around a LOT last year and ended up with a Honda Accord. It's a really nice car, but I had a very hard time deciding between it and the Fusion. Now I'm getting a 2017 Fusion and can't wait for it. BTW you and I both live in the same area, VA right near DC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grbeck Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Most people don't post on automotive websites or follow the auto industry closely. They also don't want to spend a large amount of time test driving various vehicles. If they are happy with the quality and reliability of their current vehicle, they will simply buy an updated version of it, or another vehicle in that manufacturer's line-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 And if you've bought 4 Camry's in a row and you're happy with them it will take more than one or two problems to make you switch brands. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BORG Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Escape sales have been maxed to production capacity for 4 years now, they physically can't sell anymore than Toyota, Honda, and soon Chevy. Escape will likely fall further behind in terms of their sales leadership until they kick MKC out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Assuming that the market itself continues to grow forever (hint: it won't) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 (edited) A lot of people don't cross shop - that's a huge point in the manufacturer's favour especially if the current vehicle has been reliable, a lot just usually go buy another.. Call them sheeple if you like but the return customer is money in the bank..... Edited May 13, 2016 by jpd80 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Most people don't like....no HATE buying a new car because most sales people are slimey assholes (or people think they are....) That is the one thing that is nice about being able to have plan pricing say through Ford...you remove that bullshit for the most part. I've only had one "crappy" car from Ford, but otherwise I've been very happy with them. I've driven other cars through rentals or friends cars and never felt the urge to go that brand dealership and get my own car. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-150 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 A lot of people don't cross shop - that's a huge point in the manufacturer's favour especially if the current vehicle has been reliable, a lot just usually go buy another.. Call them sheeple if you like but the return customer is money in the bank..... Dealer experience counts for a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev-Mo Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 (edited) The RAV4 debuted in North American before the Escape, so it was able to "conquest" customers from other brands, including Ford. A friend had a reliable 1989 Escort that went for well over 100,000 miles. When he finished flight school and bought a new vehicle in 1999, he switched to the RAV4, as Ford didn't offer anything like it at the time. He has stayed with Toyota ever since. But side by side to the Escape the RAV4 is hideous. I understand some things are subjective and some things are too close to call - this is neither. Edited May 16, 2016 by Kev-Mo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BORG Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 The problem with Escape is that it has to carry the weight of Ford's shrinking car business as those customers choose Crossovers. Ford isn't the only one in this predicament, Toyota also has a relatively thin portfolio of Crossovers in these price categories but they can produce more RAV4s than Ford can produce Escape. I don't think Ford needs to dramatically expand Escape capacity since we can assume they are diversifying their crossover selection at the bottom-end, but for the time being Ford is pretty much unable to stop the bleeding in an area that makes up allot of volume. Ford is a company that always has growth somewhere in its portfolio to offsets negative areas which keep this from being a big issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
630land Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 ".... he bought a RAV4 in 1999 since Ford didn't have one like it..." Really? Complaining about something from 17 years ago???? One thing to counter, is Toyota certainly didn't "take the full size truck market away" as predicted by "experts" years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grbeck Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 (edited) He is a commercial airline pilot, so he doesn't drive much (for long trips, he is able to hitch rides on his employer's flights if there is space). As a result, he doesn't buy new vehicles very often, and, when he does, he isn't interested in visiting multiple dealers to test drive various vehicles. Not everyone views that as "fun." Edited May 20, 2016 by grbeck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 (edited) The "weight" has come off Escape's shoulders somewhat now that the new Edge is pinning sales between it and the Explorer. The real hit to the guts with Toyota is cross rates are hurting them today where they ued to add cream on top... Shorten up Toyota's profits for a few years and watch them squirm, interesting that they seem to be waiting with Hilux / Tacoma product cycle, perhaps mazda has a valuable contribution to offer ocne free of contracts with Ford based BT-50... Edited May 21, 2016 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.