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Let's Buy Jeep. It's time to plan 24 months out.


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sorry guys, I doubt FCA is going anywhere, and Alfa is on the way...its baby steps right now, and they are learning the US market

Nobody buying that Italian junk in mass to the point of sustained profits over Chrysler vehicles or in other words Fiat need Chrysler vehicles to make money but to bad all the money made is being poured into Euro-trash operations.

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they're not going anywhere, and FCA bought the whole ball of wax for one reason...distribution network and infrastructure already y established saved them BILLIONS....foot snow in the door of one of the worlds largest markets for pennies on the dollar, and product will get better as will their local knowledge.

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Hyundai is unlikely to buy FCA or parts thereof. It's not in their DNA to do this. They had the opportunity to buy Volvo, Mazda, Jaguar, Land Rover and turned down all of them. The only acquisition Hyundai has ever done was Kia and that was because the imploding Korean economy forced an existential crisis on Hyundai. They didn't want Ford taking over Kia and have foreign competition in their home market. They eventually had to face with GM taking over Daewoo and Renault taking over Samsung... but Kia was different - it was on pace to pass Hyundai as the biggest car company in Korea when the Asian financial crisis toppled the over leveraged Kia. And the Korean Govt and union at that time also preferred Kia staying in Korean hand... so Hyundai basically had to make a better offer for Kia than Ford presented to the banks.

 

Sergio has probably another 18 months before he really runs out of cash so figures if the company stay on life support and he pushes back the Alfa launch in the US by another 2 years or so, he can probably buy himself just enough time to launch the 2018 Grand Cherokee and 2019 Ram. That's the best case scenario.

 

If the liquidity crisis comes to a head, FCA is likely to fill for bankruptcy rather than sell off Jeep or part the company out. No one in their right mind will want to deal with FCA while Sergio is still in charge. Once the creditors takeover, then the picture changes. The family that controls Fiat will probably buy back the Italian brands. VW or Daimler will probably take a serious look at Alfa.

 

Several Chinese companies will probably be very interested in the US assets, and they will pay a premium to get the Jeep name. Ford is pretty well positioned in SUVs so I don't see any upside to buying Jeep (having already owned Land Rover before and retained a lot of the technology and expertise, and of course... the Jeep curse).

 

Ram is the booby prize... whomever (other than Ford) ends up with it will initially benefit from decent sales and market position but it will become a long term drain on that company's finances to try to compete with Ford and GM. Nissan is probably a good guess... they are distant #5 in the US pickup truck market now and Carlos will see it as an opportunity to leapfrog Toyota. But good luck spending a few $billions keeping up with Ford.

 

Ford+Ram will be a pretty invincible duo. Especially if Ford ends up acquiring the factories too (Toledo and Mexico).

Edited by bzcat
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Either Ford should keep Ram and leave it alone. It's making a ton of money. Or dismantle it and let the cards fall where they may, that being GM and Ford split the pie (Toyota and Nissan won't be too big a factor). But did I miss something? Ram and Jeep are doing quite well, aren't they? I want the farm tractor biz ro revert back to Ford and also the Iveco trucks become Ford badged as well!

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The only way that FCA will get rid of Jeep and Ram is if the whole enterprise is carved up into pieces as it is sold off. The only thing worldwide that is keeping FCA in the black are the sales of Jeep worldwide and the sales of Jeep and Ram in the US. The only profitable vehicles FCA is selling badged as Fiats are based on the same platform as the Renegade (Renegades in drag so to speak). If and when the economy of the US goes into another down cycle, and the sales of pickups and high margin SUVs/CUVs cool off, there will be much sweating at FCA HQ.

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And another thing, buying Jeep is like selling your soul to the devil, for a while everything is great, but then the devil must be paid. Kaiser bought Willys to get Jeep. Did great for a while, but where is Kaiser today? AMC then got it. It helped AMC get through the 70s, but where are they now? (even Renault got some of the black cloud by association back then) Chrysler bought AMC mostly to get Jeep. We all know how that story ended. Now FCA has Jeep, and they are having their day in the sun. But the black cloud is somewhere over the horizon...

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J-150...bingo...I don't think they are going anywhere, but Ford has no use for them irrespective....and I know for a fact the Ranger IS coming and so is the Bronco.....shhhhh....and I would bet the product will be better and outsell anything FCA manufactures in the same class....

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Ford is through with buying other brands to increase revenue and income, the money is better spent internally.

 

And to that end spending $2.5 Billion on Lincoln in the next five years versus $12.5 Billion to simply match Cadillac

would be economic suicide as there's no way Lincoln could grow revenue enough to ever see anything like a return

on that investment - it would be like Acquiring and funding RAM or Jeep with the same outcome, simply repeating PAG.

 

Not spending that extra $10 Billion in the first place may in fact give a better outcome......

Edited by jpd80
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Hyundai is unlikely to buy FCA or parts thereof. It's not in their DNA to do this. They had the opportunity to buy Volvo, Mazda, Jaguar, Land Rover and turned down all of them. The only acquisition Hyundai has ever done was Kia and that was because the imploding Korean economy forced an existential crisis on Hyundai. They didn't want Ford taking over Kia and have foreign competition in their home market. They eventually had to face with GM taking over Daewoo and Renault taking over Samsung... but Kia was different - it was on pace to pass Hyundai as the biggest car company in Korea when the Asian financial crisis toppled the over leveraged Kia. And the Korean Govt and union at that time also preferred Kia staying in Korean hand... so Hyundai basically had to make a better offer for Kia than Ford presented to the banks.

 

Sergio has probably another 18 months before he really runs out of cash so figures if the company stay on life support and he pushes back the Alfa launch in the US by another 2 years or so, he can probably buy himself just enough time to launch the 2018 Grand Cherokee and 2019 Ram. That's the best case scenario.

 

If the liquidity crisis comes to a head, FCA is likely to fill for bankruptcy rather than sell off Jeep or part the company out. No one in their right mind will want to deal with FCA while Sergio is still in charge. Once the creditors takeover, then the picture changes. The family that controls Fiat will probably buy back the Italian brands. VW or Daimler will probably take a serious look at Alfa.

 

Several Chinese companies will probably be very interested in the US assets, and they will pay a premium to get the Jeep name. Ford is pretty well positioned in SUVs so I don't see any upside to buying Jeep (having already owned Land Rover before and retained a lot of the technology and expertise, and of course... the Jeep curse).

 

Ram is the booby prize... whomever (other than Ford) ends up with it will initially benefit from decent sales and market position but it will become a long term drain on that company's finances to try to compete with Ford and GM. Nissan is probably a good guess... they are distant #5 in the US pickup truck market now and Carlos will see it as an opportunity to leapfrog Toyota. But good luck spending a few $billions keeping up with Ford.

 

Ford+Ram will be a pretty invincible duo. Especially if Ford ends up acquiring the factories too (Toledo and Mexico).

Good analysis, to add insult to injury;

 

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151116/RETAIL01/311169972?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

 

I highly doubt people will part ways with their cars for an unknown Italian make.

 

IMO the CDJR part of FCA can survive S/Ms bs past '18 after he's shown the door AND not have an Italian lackey takeover his position.

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Good analysis, to add insult to injury;

 

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151116/RETAIL01/311169972?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

 

I highly doubt people will part ways with their cars for an unknown Italian make.

 

IMO the CDJR part of FCA can survive S/Ms bs past '18 after he's shown the door AND not have an Italian lackey takeover his position.

I don't think Alfa-Romeo is unknown. Fiat I think here in NA is still seen with same jaundice eye that Ford is seen by those because of the Pinto after all these years. My point is to push Fiat and A-R inroads that you are willing to sacrifice what's left of Chrysler is a questionable business decision IMO.

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I don't think Alfa-Romeo is unknown. Fiat I think here in NA is still seen with same jaundice eye that Ford is seen by those because of the Pinto after all these years. My point is to push Fiat and A-R inroads that you are willing to sacrifice what's left of Chrysler is a questionable business decision IMO.

Daimler did that to push MBs US growth. It took years for Chrysler to climb out of that hole.

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Alfa is maybe little known, but won't get Beemer/Benz trade ins. Maybe some rich people who can afford a 4th or 5th 'toy' will get one, but Alfa won't grow as Audi has.

Fiat 500 is a long term flop, seen at Rental firms as 'economy' level, for people to 'move up' to a compact/mid size.

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Alfa is maybe little known, but won't get Beemer/Benz trade ins. Maybe some rich people who can afford a 4th or 5th 'toy' will get one, but Alfa won't grow as Audi has.

Fiat 500 is a long term flop, seen at Rental firms as 'economy' level, for people to 'move up' to a compact/mid size.

Like Mini and Beetle. Those who wanted them have already purchased. Now the novelty has worn off.

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