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Joe771476

New light & medium duty news

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Anyone else think the new Chevy mediums look like a Ford medium from the 80s but with a Bow Tie?  Anyway, hopefully Ford watches this closely and steps up where they need too.  We know the gas engine is on the way, hopefully they keep thinking of things to improve on as time goes on and competition catches or passes them. 

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47 minutes ago, 7Mary3 said:

https://media-cf.assets-cdk.com/teams/repository/export/7f0/c40e0d000100580840050568b5709/7f0c40e0d000100580840050568b5709.pdf

Say what you want but that new Chevy medium duty looks good.  Some of this information is a bit dubious (one inch here, 3 inches there BBC, ect.) but the tilt hood, 7 wheelbases, factory rear air suspension, and clean frame rails are big advantages in this market segment.  Gas engine is rumored to becoming later this year.   

This is a good example of GM going after a market while Ford does nothing.  I'm not sure if I posted this here or if it was on another site, but I had a discussion with a dealer friend of mine who sells a lot of 450-750's a while back and it was obvious I knew more about the new GM/Navistar trucks than he did.  I asked him if his Ford rep had been giving him any "intelligence" he could use in case one of his customers mentioned the GMs and he said NO!.

Now if you were a sales manager  and you knew your competitor was about to spring a new product, wouldn't you be doing your best to make sure the people that were selling your product had as much ammo you could provide to meet that threat-or at least try to mount so sort of case for your product?

Not the case at Ford-brain dead I'm afraid.

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31 minutes ago, packardbob said:

Anyone else think the new Chevy mediums look like a Ford medium from the 80s but with a Bow Tie?  Anyway, hopefully Ford watches this closely and steps up where they need too.  We know the gas engine is on the way, hopefully they keep thinking of things to improve on as time goes on and competition catches or passes them. 

I don't see it but Ford's market share in 4, 5-and 6 will be headed in one direction only-and that is down.    And I agree with you, the new V-8 will be a big help when it gets here-in particular in class 6 and 7.

The Key is will they will come up with something else that serves to blunt the decline in addition to the new motor.  I could not believe the bit about CA dimensions until I read that GM release that 7M3 posted.

I went to a new sales brochure I picked up the other day-doesn't even mention CA options.  I guess for good reason.

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It does look a wee bit like a 1984 F-700 I used to drive once in a while.

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1 hour ago, Bob Rosadini said:

I don't see it but Ford's market share in 4, 5-and 6 will be headed in one direction only-and that is down.    And I agree with you, the new V-8 will be a big help when it gets here-in particular in class 6 and 7.

Bob, you talk in market share but the figures I have  currently is YTD 11 month to November shows that Ford sales of class 4 to 7 has actually grown slightly year over year. I'm hoping to get the final counts in the next week or so but until then, I can give these.

 

Ford.....................11 Mths 2018...............11 Mths 2017 ............11 Mths % change

Class 4.......................29,066..........................30,486.......................- 4.7%........a drop of 1420

Class 5.......................46,714..........................43,662.......................+7.0%.......an increase of 3,052

Class 6.......................18,762..........................17,101.......................+9.7%.......an increase of 1,661

Class 7........................1,690...........................1,654.........................+2.2%......an increase of 36

Class 8...........................171..............................151.......................+13.2%........(a version of F750 that's technically class 8 😎

TOTAL....................96,403......................93,054.......................+3.6%........an increase of 3,349

 

So a little bit of perspective here, Ford did 909,000 F Series this year, class 4 to 7 =~10 to11% of that, class 2 & 3 = 90%

Edited by jpd80

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Ram.....................11 Mths 2018...............11 Mths 2017 ............11 Mths % change

Class 5.......................14,228..........................15,501.......................- 8.2%........a drop of 1273

 

Hino.....................11 Mths 2018...............11 Mths 2017 ............11 Mths % change

Class 4.......................1,167...............................897..........................+30.1%........an increase of 270

Class 5.......................2,352............................2,144............................+8.7%.......an increase of 208

Class 6.......................7,029.............................6,062..........................+16.0%.......an increase of 967

Class 7......................1,882.............................1,748.............................+7.7%.......an increase of 134

TOTAL...................12,430.........................10,851.......................+14.6%......an increase of 1,579

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21 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Bob, you talk in market share but the figures I have  currently is YTD 11 month to November shows that Ford sales of class 4 to 7 has actually grown slightly year over year. I'm hoping to get the final counts in the next week or so but until then, I can give these.

 

Ford.....................11 Mths 2018...............11 Mths 2017 ............11 Mths % change

Class 4.......................29,066..........................30,486.......................- 4.7%........a drop of 1420

Class 5.......................46,714..........................43,662.......................+7.0%.......an increase of 3,052

Class 6.......................18,762..........................17,101.......................+9.7%.......an increase of 1,661

Class 7........................1,690...........................1,654.........................+2.2%......an increase of 36

Class 8...........................171..............................151.......................+13.2%........(a version of F750 that's technically class 8 😎

TOTAL....................96,403......................93,054.......................+3.6%........an increase of 3,349

 

So a little bit of perspective here, Ford did 909,000 F Series this year, class 4 to 7 =~10 to11% of that, class 2 & 3 = 90%

JP-I guess the reason I look at market share is because that to me is the measure of how well you are doing versus the competition.  I look at sales numbers as more of a reflection of the economy.

By the way, how do you get your numbers?  I just use the stats published by HDT.

That class 8 number is interesting.  I have never seen a 750 with a plate over 33,000 although that picture of the black 750 dump truck I recently posted had the specs to qualify for a 35,000 lb plate but Ford has a "derate" code that allows them to plate at 33,000 eliminating the FET. So I guess if you want to take your chances and register for 33,000 and load the hell out of it, you have a truck that should stand up to it.-Just be prepared to pay the overload fines should you get weighed.

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You know what stands out to me?  650 and 750 sales only amount to 18,906 for 11 months of 2018.  That's a small number for a vehicle that is a unique platform, different from the 250 through 550 Super Duty.  Even though it shares a drivetrain with the rest of the Super Duty line and uses the old steel Super Duty cab, just how profitable is that truck?  Unless Ford is going to develop the 650/750 line (school bus or class 8?), I wonder if it would make sense for Ford to add a class 6 version to the 350/450/550 and drop the separate 650/750.  Their class 7 sales are currently insignificant.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

JP-I guess the reason I look at market share is because that to me is the measure of how well you are doing versus the competition.  I look at sales numbers as more of a reflection of the economy.

By the way, how do you get your numbers?  I just use the stats published by HDT.

That class 8 number is interesting.  I have never seen a 750 with a plate over 33,000 although that picture of the black 750 dump truck I recently posted had the specs to qualify for a 35,000 lb plate but Ford has a "derate" code that allows them to plate at 33,000 eliminating the FET. So I guess if you want to take your chances and register for 33,000 and load the hell out of it, you have a truck that should stand up to it.-Just be prepared to pay the overload fines should you get weighed.

I have access to an Autonews data base that presents monthly sales for most of the MD -  some of that data comes from Wards auto.

Just guessing but  maybe those Ford class 8  buyers just want some capacity "head room" instead using to the max...

 

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8 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

Even though it shares a drivetrain with the rest of the Super Duty line and uses the old steel Super Duty cab, just how profitable is that truck?  Unless Ford is going to develop the 650/750 line (school bus or class 8?), I wonder if it would make sense for Ford to add a class 6 version to the 350/450/550 and drop the separate 650/750.  Their class 7 sales are currently insignificant.

Profitability has a lot to do with the price of the sale.  Because Ford is using a moderately high volume "in house" engine and transmission their potential for profit, or undercut pricing, should give them a big advantage over the competition.

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On 1/5/2019 at 11:39 PM, jpd80 said:

Bob, you talk in market share but the figures I have  currently is YTD 11 month to November shows that Ford sales of class 4 to 7 has actually grown slightly year over year. I'm hoping to get the final counts in the next week or so but until then, I can give these.

 

Ford.....................11 Mths 2018...............11 Mths 2017 ............11 Mths % change

Class 4.......................29,066..........................30,486.......................- 4.7%........a drop of 1420

Class 5.......................46,714..........................43,662.......................+7.0%.......an increase of 3,052

Class 6.......................18,762..........................17,101.......................+9.7%.......an increase of 1,661

Class 7........................1,690...........................1,654.........................+2.2%......an increase of 36

Class 8...........................171..............................151.......................+13.2%........(a version of F750 that's technically class 8 😎

TOTAL....................96,403......................93,054.......................+3.6%........an increase of 3,349

 

So a little bit of perspective here, Ford did 909,000 F Series this year, class 4 to 7 =~10 to11% of that, class 2 & 3 = 90%

Was this supposed to say class 1-3?

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I see the new Chevrolet MD giving Ford a run for the money, especially when it gets the long rumored Gas engine is available.  The one big advantage is the tilt hood.  I know this is one sale, but a  Rescue Squad near me just ordered a new ambulance.  They were split between F-550 and Freightliner M2.  They went with the Freightliner, one of the big reasons, they are still scared about the cab removal for engine service.  Also, Prince George's County, Maryland, longtime Freightliner user for Ambulances (about 20 years), just placed an order for I believe 8 Chevrolet MD chassied Ambulances.  I still want to see how they do partnering with Navistar and the problems of Navistar lately.  It appears they are using a GM drivetrain in the new mediums, but that is the biggest issue I'm seeing right now is what parts are Navistar.

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3 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Was this supposed to say class 1-3?

 F150 is class 2a, F250 is class 2b and F350 is class 3. ...........Class 1 trucks are things like Ranger, Colorado

Edited by jpd80

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38 minutes ago, hwyman3 said:

I see the new Chevrolet MD giving Ford a run for the money, especially when it gets the long rumored Gas engine is available.  The one big advantage is the tilt hood.  I know this is one sale, but a  Rescue Squad near me just ordered a new ambulance.  They were split between F-550 and Freightliner M2.  They went with the Freightliner, one of the big reasons, they are still scared about the cab removal for engine service.  Also, Prince George's County, Maryland, longtime Freightliner user for Ambulances (about 20 years), just placed an order for I believe 8 Chevrolet MD chassied Ambulances.  I still want to see how they do partnering with Navistar and the problems of Navistar lately.  It appears they are using a GM drivetrain in the new mediums, but that is the biggest issue I'm seeing right now is what parts are Navistar.

Don't F-6/750's hoods tilt forward too?

Image result for ford f-650 hood open

9 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

 F150 is class 2a, F250 is class 2b and F350 is class 3. ...........Class 1 trucks are things like Ranger, Colorado

Ohhhh, that makes sense then.  Thanks for clarifying; Carry on!  Haha.

Edited by rmc523

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Yes, but the 450 and 550 don't, and they are not much fun to work on.

I am starting to wonder.  Back in October, rumors were flying that the 650 and 750 were going to be dropped after the 2019MY.  Maybe that is indeed true, possibly the plan is to replace them with a 650 version of the 450/550 in 2020 when the Super Duty gets updated.  Wild speculation on my part, but looking at those sales numbers, I figure the 750 does not matter and a 650 version of the current 550 would probably get 80% of current 650 sales.  Could save Ford money by simplifying Avon Lake.  Personally I would rather see Ford try to grow current 650/750 sales but they seem unwilling to do much with that platform.

I have heard another wild rumor that Ram is considering a '6500 Super HD' cab and chassis.  If so it will likely be an increased capacity Ram 5500.  Seems that is a 'sweet spot', basically a class 5 size truck with a 24,000# GVW. 

 

 

Edited by 7Mary3

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I would think that switching over to the aluminum cab in 650/750 would not be a big issue....make the fiberglass nose fit the new lines and done...

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2 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Don't F-6/750's hoods tilt forward too?

Image result for ford f-650 hood open

Ohhhh, that makes sense then.  Thanks for clarifying; Carry on!  Haha.

Yes, 650 & 750 has the tilt hood, but the 550 and below doesn't.  This local squad didn't even consider an F-650 chassis.

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3 hours ago, hwyman3 said:

Yes, 650 & 750 has the tilt hood, but the 550 and below doesn't.  This local squad didn't even consider an F-650 chassis.

 

3 hours ago, hwyman3 said:

Yes, 650 & 750 has the tilt hood, but the 550 and below doesn't.  This local squad didn't even consider an F-650 chassis.

You have to wonder why not?  The 650 is available as a low pro with 19.5 wheels.  Many departments have gone to larger units like F'liner M-2s and International 4400's   My guess is $$$

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5 hours ago, twintornados said:

I would think that switching over to the aluminum cab in 650/750 would not be a big issue....make the fiberglass nose fit the new lines and done...

My feeling has been as OAP is currently working with 3 cab structures-aluminum 450/550 chassis, steel 650/750 and the E series. we just might see a new cab structure that works for all 3-perhaps even a return of E-550..  That is if Ford IS truly committed to being the big dog in commercial truck.  The fact that the new GM/Navistar has not exactly been a secret, Ford has had plenty of time to be working on this as well.  

And IMO, one cab structure has to have all sorts of economies of scale-in particular when you look at the age of the steel SD cab to say nothing of the E series structure.

Changes in logistics and the continued growth of direct order merchants I would think makes in particular the class 5, 6 and 7 market very important

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11 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

My feeling has been as OAP is currently working with 3 cab structures-aluminum 450/550 chassis, steel 650/750 and the E series. we just might see a new cab structure that works for all 3-perhaps even a return of E-550..  That is if Ford IS truly committed to being the big dog in commercial truck.  The fact that the new GM/Navistar has not exactly been a secret, Ford has had plenty of time to be working on this as well.  

And IMO, one cab structure has to have all sorts of economies of scale-in particular when you look at the age of the steel SD cab to say nothing of the E series structure.

Changes in logistics and the continued growth of direct order merchants I would think makes in particular the class 5, 6 and 7 market very important

I have long said that a new cab for E-Series that uses T-Series (Transit Full Size) cab architecture fused to a floorpan that can be bolted to E-Series chassis would resolve that and moving Medium Duty to the new aluminum cab would stream-line ops by getting rid of the older SD steel cab altogether.... 

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46 minutes ago, twintornados said:

I have long said that a new cab for E-Series that uses T-Series (Transit Full Size) cab architecture fused to a floorpan that can be bolted to E-Series chassis would resolve that and moving Medium Duty to the new aluminum cab would stream-line ops by getting rid of the older SD steel cab altogether.... 

Well I too had thought perhaps the Transit "glass house" could be the basis of a new cab that would replace the E as well as the current SD cab for all OAP Super Duty trucks.  But then I got to thinking that it would be too much of a compromise in terms of driver seating position/visibility.  Look at the windshield angle of the F'Liner, International 4400's (MV?), Hino.   Like the old Louisville cab, all are much more vertical in terms of windshield angle and like the Louisville cab, all offer a much higher seating position that results in better visibility

Bottom line is the  E series cab structure and the SD cab are how many years old???   Time to move on and face the competition IMO.  

The key here does Hackett view commercial trucks the same as the  competition does- a money maker.

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I think the cab issue is kind of a side show. Isn't the problem with E-series that the chassis can't accept a larger engine/transmission package? And the fact that Ford is so beholden to the aftermarket upfitters that it does what its customers want (which is nothing)?

Right now ford has 3 medium duty platforms while most competitors have 1 or 2. Causal observers and armchair CEOs like us can see that there is opportunity to consolidate your position through economy of scale. But Ford has other considerations...

1. Does its customers really want changes? Remember, who buys the bulk of E-series... it's not the retail customers. Not even fleet managers. Most E-series are ordered by upfitters.

2. The larger F-650 and 750 chassis and cab doesn't have a lot of commonality with F-450 and 550 but does Ford really want to invest in a new chassis that works across the board when its F-650 strategy is a value play? It is the low cost option in the class 6 market so keeping cost low is the first priority.

3. Don't forget the stripped chassis business. Ford sells vast majority of stripped chassis in the US. Ford offers two main family of stripped chassis and one share a large amount of commonality with E-series and the other with F-650 chassis. Stripped chassis are also ordered by upfitters... do these customers want changes?

So thinking about all these factors, I believe Ford will just keep doing minor updates to E-series and F-650. The only missing link here is a suitable diesel for E-series... but sales may not be enough to justify the investment to engineer the 3.0 V6 diesel in there.

 

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16 minutes ago, bzcat said:

I think the cab issue is kind of a side show. Isn't the problem with E-series that the chassis can't accept a larger engine/transmission package? And the fact that Ford is so beholden to the aftermarket upfitters that it does what its customers want (which is nothing)?

Right now ford has 3 medium duty platforms while most competitors have 1 or 2. Causal observers and armchair CEOs like us can see that there is opportunity to consolidate your position through economy of scale. But Ford has other considerations...

1. Does its customers really want changes? Remember, who buys the bulk of E-series... it's not the retail customers. Not even fleet managers. Most E-series are ordered by upfitters.

2. The larger F-650 and 750 chassis and cab doesn't have a lot of commonality with F-450 and 550 but does Ford really want to invest in a new chassis that works across the board when its F-650 strategy is a value play? It is the low cost option in the class 6 market so keeping cost low is the first priority.

3. Don't forget the stripped chassis business. Ford sells vast majority of stripped chassis in the US. Ford offers two main family of stripped chassis and one share a large amount of commonality with E-series and the other with F-650 chassis. Stripped chassis are also ordered by upfitters... do these customers want changes?

So thinking about all these factors, I believe Ford will just keep doing minor updates to E-series and F-650. The only missing link here is a suitable diesel for E-series... but sales may not be enough to justify the investment to engineer the 3.0 V6 diesel in there.

 

At some point, though, like Crown Vic, it'll become unprofitable for Ford to keep making them as-is.  They transitioned to Transit with no problems.

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The main issue with the panther wasn't that the model itself was unprofitable, it was the issue of supporting an entire plant with dwindling volume (also see the old Ranger).  The Taurus got to continue despite suffering similar (and also dwindling) volume because it shared its plant and chassis with the much higher volume explorer.

So if Ford can put all the low volume lines in one plant to get enough combined volume to keep the plant running near capacity, I could see them keeping mediums, e series, and stripped chassis going for a long, long time without anything more than tweaking powertrain offerings based on availability of corporate parts from the F Series bin.  Also helping this approach is that all three lines aren't passenger vehicles that are subject to constant evolution of crash and fuel economy standards.

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7 minutes ago, Sevensecondsuv said:

The main issue with the panther wasn't that the model itself was unprofitable, it was the issue of supporting an entire plant with dwindling volume (also see the old Ranger).  The Taurus got to continue despite suffering similar (and also dwindling) volume because it shared its plant and chassis with the much higher volume explorer.

It was an example of Ford saving money by not doing anything or more correctly doing less by shuttering three BOF plants and encouraging buyers to use other existing vehicles.

 

Quote

So if Ford can put all the low volume lines in one plant to get enough combined volume to keep the plant running near capacity, I could see them keeping mediums, e series, and stripped chassis going for a long, long time without anything more than tweaking powertrain offerings based on availability of corporate parts from the F Series bin.  Also helping this approach is that all three lines aren't passenger vehicles that are subject to constant evolution of crash and fuel economy standards.

The key is how much does Ford really wants or needs to change  now that there a new large gas engine and 10-speed auto is on the horizon.

Remembering that Ford's presence in these markets is limited to vehicles it can do easily for good profit, skating by doing the least possible.

 

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