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If only...


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Just for the sake of "what ifs" and possibly how volumes could have looked different, I thought I'd throw together some numbers for what things "might be" come 2010 for Ford, or more accurately, what "would have been" had Ford been on the ball with its current offerings.

 

Here's my guestimates on year-to-date volume on what shoulda been....and hopefully will be soon.

 

Cars

 

Crown Victoria: 41,551

On its last legs, but somewhat steady. No significant change to volume.

Modified sales: 0

 

Five Hundred: 55,982

Refreshed with Duratec 35 and bolder sheetmetal. Conservative gain.

Modified sales: +15,000

 

Taurus: 111,922

Would be, should be gone.

Modified sales: -111,922

 

Fusion: 84,701

Will keep steady. Should increase gradually once Taurus is gone and it catches on some. Added coupe??

Modified sales: +15,000

 

Focus: 111,108

If it were C1 or C2 based or if C170 is significantly revised, slight uptick.

Modified sales: +20,000

 

Mustang: 100,995

Steady as she goes. This one's Ford's baby. Always will be.

Modified sales: 0

 

GT: 1222

Will be gone soon enough. Sure was a beauty while it lasted though.

Modified sales: -1222

 

Added Models (with VERY conservative estimates on sales)

 

B-Car #1

Something similar to the Reflex is likely.

Modified sales: +40,000

 

B-Car #2

More traditional-looking Fiesta-type vehicle

Modified sales: +60,000

 

Total Current Ford Cars: 507,950

Total Modified sales: 544,000 (est)

 

Increase of 7%

 

Trucks

 

Freestyle: 41,417

Slight rise in sales with fresher appearance and D35

Modified sales: +10,000

 

Escape: 101,509

Possible rebound in sales with refresh, but I'll leave it flat to be on the conservative side.

Modified sales: 0

 

Explorer: 111,493

Likely to see continued declines.

Modified sales: -20,000

 

Expedition: 47,938

Extended wheelbase version should hold sales pretty even, but I still predict softness.

Modified sales: -5000

 

Freestar: 39,883

Good night. Good riddance.

Modified sales: -39,883

 

Econoline/Club Wagon: 104,640

No big changes in store for this one.

Modified sales: 0

 

Ranger: 57,136

What could have been. With a fresh Ranger, it would be rocking still.

Modified sales: +30,000

 

F-Series: 469,159

May shrink some, but not a ton. Another of Ford's babies it won't let rot away.

Modified sales: -20,000

 

Low Cab Forward: 2191

Same ol, same ol.

Modified sales: 0

 

Heavy Trucks: 8083

See above.

Modified sales: 0

 

New Models (Again, estimates are conservative)

 

B-Truck

Bronco-type mini-ute

Modified sales: +40,000

 

Edge

Should enter the market with a pretty strong and immediate impact.

Modified sales: +90,000

 

People Mover

Whatever the Fairlane comes out as, it can't be worse than the Freestar.

Modified sales: +60,000

 

Total Current Ford Trucks: 984,414

Total Modified Sales: 1,100,000 (est)

 

Increase of 11.7%

 

Total Current Ford Brand: 1,492,364

Total Modified Brand Sales: 1,644,000

 

Total Sales Increase: 10.1%

 

That would put Ford within spitting distance of 2005's YTD sales through July of 1,657,977.

 

Sigh. If only....okay...enough blabbering.... :blah:

 

Any opinions on where my estimates might be under or over-optimistic for the years to come?

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I think the fusion has the potental to sell at least 120K units alone per year,esp if Ford is looking to keep fleet sales around 15% or so, in comparision to now where 97% of sales are to retail market.

 

This is per 7 months.

 

Anyway, I doubt that truck sales will outgrow car sales. That is just very unlikely, even with new crossovers.

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Anyway, I doubt that truck sales will outgrow car sales. That is just very unlikely, even with new crossovers.

 

Well, I was a lot more conservative with my estimates on the B-cars and Fusion than I was with the new trucks. That would probably explain most of the growth gap in my numbers.

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Throw a V6 diesel in the Explorer and watch sales zoom to over 300,000 again.

Contrary to what you may have read on this board, Ford's executives are not stupid, and they are not trying to bankrupt the company in order to 'fix' the UAW. Ford's management want the company to succeed as much as any dyed in the wool Ford hourly employee on the line.

 

If it were that simple to put an affordable emissions compliant V6 Diesel in the Explorer, Ford would be on it like stink on a monkey.

 

It's just not feasible now. It may be within the next few years, but it is not feasible now.

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