How plans went sour for Ford's turnaround

[Blue Oval Staff]

Click here for the article

[RichardJensen]

Well, classic validation of the "What, sir, do you do with new information?" question posed by Keynes. CW for years has been that the pickup segment is resistant to gas prices. Turns out it isn't. Those numbers are pretty tough to argue. 65-70% of buyers trading in trucks are leaving the segment.

[OAC_Sparky]

Well, classic validation of the "What, sir, do you do with new information?" question posed by Keynes. CW for years has been that the pickup segment is resistant to gas prices. Turns out it isn't. Those numbers are pretty tough to argue. 65-70% of buyers trading in trucks are leaving the segment.

That's not what it said.

 

Trade-in data numbers showed that about 70% of full-size pickup buyers traded in for another pickup. But for the 3 months ending in June, that number fell to 65%, and the data showed buyers moving to cars and SUVs.

Meaning, 5% of people that normally would trade in for newer trucks have moved out of the segment.

 

Mind you, at a 1M a year truck sales that's 50,000 less trucks.

[Edstock]

So, there'll be a smaller F-150 — call it the F-100, if gasoline continues to be affecting the market.

 

Maybe the CGI diesels will help.

 

Obviously Ford intends to do whatever it takes to remain the light-truck leader, and like the article said, they've got 26 billion in cash.

 

The point is, this isn't over by a long shot. The shrinking light-truck market is actually an opportunity, if the engineers and management can get it right.

[DCK]

That's not what it said.

 

Meaning, 5% of people that normally would trade in for newer trucks have moved out of the segment.

 

Mind you, at a 1M a year truck sales that's 50,000 less trucks.

With the introduction of the new sierra, silverado and the biggest threat.....the tundra. FOrd will be reluctant to break 850k in 2007 IMO

[RichardJensen]

That's not what it said.

My mistake. I did write the blog article with the proper understanding. A 5% change across the 2.5M unit fullsize truck segment is 125k fewer trucks. It seems likely that fewer cars and SUVs are being traded in on trucks too.

 

Also, DCK, why would you suggest that the Tundra is a more formidable competitor than the GMT900s?

 

Is it because Toyota's building a plant in Texas?

 

Because if that were the case, Ford's idle capacity would make them a huge threat in many sectors.

[DCK]

My mistake. I did write the blog article with the proper understanding. A 5% change across the 2.5M unit fullsize truck segment is 125k fewer trucks. It seems likely that fewer cars and SUVs are being traded in on trucks too.

 

Also, DCK, why would you suggest that the Tundra is a more formidable competitor than the GMT900s?

 

Is it because Toyota's building a plant in Texas?

 

Because if that were the case, Ford's idle capacity would make them a huge threat in many sectors.

Because it is toyotas first competitive pick-up and they have been succesfull at all their recent launches that it is a scary thought. Plus the advertisements will be endless and top that of the Lexus brand launch, they are spending hundreds of millions in advertisement which will say they have a better truck then the f-150.

 

The silverado and sierra already have their customers over 1 million+ I don't see them taking a big chunk of f-150 sales.

[Noah Harbinger]

FOrd will be reluctant to break 850k in 2007 IMO

 

That word you use... I do not think that means what you think it means.

 

Anyhow... geeze the plan is 6 months old, it hasn't even had time to change anything, let alone "fail"...

[RichardJensen]

Because it is toyotas first competitive pick-up

And you know this.......... how? Because it looks competitive?

 

As they say in the mutual fund business, "Past performance does not indicate future results". Based on past results, you would not expect Toyota to have recalled 10% of their U.S. fleet last year.... But they did. Based on past results you would not expect Toyota's global recall volume in July to pass 1M units.... But they did.

 

Toyota has repeatedly misread the American pickup consumer, his needs, and the way he uses his trucks. And while past performance does not necessarily predict that they will continue to misread the American truck buyer, it seems quite likely given the increasingly arrogant stance they have taken toward American consumers and the American market (the newest Camry is a joke--Toyota cannot afford to continue to be so sloppy in a segment this competitive).

[J-150]

My mistake. I did write the blog article with the proper understanding. A 5% change across the 2.5M unit fullsize truck segment is 125k fewer trucks. It seems likely that fewer cars and SUVs are being traded in on trucks too.

 

 

lets keep in mind that the pickup market doubled over a 15 year period. Of course it will peak and then skrink.

 

 

That is just common sense