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Ford's Fading Future


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Gee. We haven't covered this subject at all, have we? Ford has one million units of new product in NA coming out in 2007, and it's not enough for you.

 

The question is: Is this 'new product' new enough? The customer wasn't born yesterday. The Expedition/Navigator are lukewarm facelifts (a la unsuccessful 2006 Explorer). They will be terribly uncompetitive in powertrains with the new GM fullsize SUV's, which are all-new vehicles--not half-hearted rehashes of the prior model. The 2008 SuperDuty appears from the pictures to have a new front end and interior and little else (same cab, same box, new diesel). Facelifted Five Hundred/Montego/Freestyle with a new engine. The only all-new vehicle will be the Edge/MKX and it should do well.

 

Ford may be fiddling with the designs of a million units of volume, but almost everyone who has weighed their new offerings against the competition thinks what they have in the near-term pipeline is inadequate. With another year of nose job facelifts planned, Ford is apparently doing what they have been doing the past few years, but expecting different results. I believe it was Albert Einstein who said that is one definition of insanity.

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The only metric by which you can believe that is if you look no further than the sheetmetal.

 

NEWS FLASH: most consumers judge the newness of an automobile by its sheetmetal. Expedition/Navigator sales have been falling about 40% year over year. The 2007 nosejob is not going to have much effect on that, I'm afraid.

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The question is: Is this 'new product' new enough? The customer wasn't born yesterday. The Expedition/Navigator are lukewarm facelifts (a la unsuccessful 2006 Explorer). They will be terribly uncompetitive in powertrains with the new GM fullsize SUV's, which are all-new vehicles--not half-hearted rehashes of the prior model. The 2008 SuperDuty appears from the pictures to have a new front end and interior and little else (same cab, same box, new diesel). Facelifted Five Hundred/Montego/Freestyle with a new engine. The only all-new vehicle will be the Edge/MKX and it should do well.

 

Ford may be fiddling with the designs of a million units of volume, but almost everyone who has weighed their new offerings against the competition thinks what they have in the near-term pipeline is inadequate. With another year of nose job facelifts planned, Ford is apparently doing what they have been doing the past few years, but expecting different results. I believe it was Albert Einstein who said that is one definition of insanity.

Bear in mind that the Expy's closest competitor, the Tahoe, has a comparable powertrain (you cannot get the 400hp Vortec on the Tahoe). Where this new product falls short is the Navigator's 300hp as compared with the Escalade's 400hp. This will without a doubt cost sales.

 

Also, do not assign the public in general an afficianado's discernment regarding the new Tahoe and Escalade as opposed to the Expy and Navi (more than once, I've heard people say the new Tahoe "looks just like the old Tahoe", and I heard the same thing said about the Escalade at the Super Bowl post-game show). All four feature totally new interiors and substantially updated defining attributes on the exterior. From a recent press release:

 

Earlier this year General Motors fast-tracked the launch of its all-new 2007 Chevrolet Tahoe, the full-size segment sales leader, and the 2007 Chevrolet Suburban, effectively getting the jump on Expedition to the marketplace.

 

Tahoe benefits from a new exterior design and a stiffer, fully boxed frame with improved noise, vibration and harshness (NVH) characteristics, while the 2007 Suburban is also leaner looking with better handling and performance than the previous model.

 

But in recent consumer testing in the Texas market, the top-selling region for full-size SUVs, Expedition actually fared better than its Chevy counterparts in head-to-head product comparisons with perspective buyers.

 

“We had 150 consumers come in and drive five Full-size SUV's over the course of nine days down in Dallas,” said Michael O’Brien, Expedition marketing manager. “We asked a number of things, including styling and drive impressions, and Expedition had a tremendous clinic. The Expedition soundly beat (Chevy) Tahoe and (Nissan) Armada as a first choice. While taking on Suburban with the new EL will certainly be a great challenge, the key advantages of Expedition EL in the key areas of quietness and refeinement,, third-row versatility and cargo capability were very apparent."

 

Cutting through the bull, this release does a decent job of highlighting the relative strengths of Ford and Chevy, with the new Tahoe emerging as less of a competitor than the Suburban. The idea that the "all new" Tahoe is a slam-dunk winner when compared with the "face lifted" Expedition is not defensible.

 

You've also done a fine job slighting the new SuperDuty. An entirely new frame, all new sheetmetal on the 250 and 350, and a new interior, and a new diesel--this truck will be the first one-ton pickup to have a payload rating in excess of 3 tons and with towing capacity in excess of 20,000lbs. Like the Expy and Navi, it will be seen as "all new", even if the 450 and 550 share sheetmetal with the current model behind the A pillar.

 

Also, in alleging that the 2006 Explorer is a failure you fall into the trap of comparing Explorer sales figures sans Sport Trac with sales figures that included the Sport Trac. The lack of STs at most local Ford dealers suggests that this product is not available in any kind of volume at this time.

 

In characterizing substantial frame, interior, and exterior revsions as "nosejobs", you err as much as if you said that the new Expedition and Navigator will set sales records.

 

It continues to irk me that those with negative outlooks seem convinced that no negative assessment could ever be too dire or too unrealistic.

Edited by RichardJensen
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I'm not convinced either. I live in Ohio which is pretty much the test bed for all things American because we have such a demographic cross section.

 

I see more new 500's than Impalas and would agree with other posters that the bulk of Impala sales go into fleets and rentals.

 

Ford was smart too in not dumping hundreds of millions into developing an all new Nav and Expedition, unlike GM which is taking a bath on the new Escalade/Tahoe/Yukon. $3 a gallon gas is sending these dinosaurs to what I think will be a quick end.

 

What Ford needs -

 

Replace the Fusion with an all new car that generates excitement on the level of the Chevy Cobalt. Not just a re-skin but a really cool new car, perhaps based on the Mazda-3.

 

Bring back the Bronco as a direct competitor to the Jeep Wrangler using the baby Land Rover as the starting point.

 

Stretch the Five Hundred and ressurect the LTD (Ford) and the Park Lane (Mercury) badge for a competitor to the Buick Lucerne (Mercury) and Toyota Avalon (Ford). Use this platform for a Lincoln Continental that is styled much like the Mercedes CLS - broad shouldered, low stance, aggressive styling.

 

Let's face it - Ford has the ability to more than outshine GM in showroom excitement, but will they DO it?

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Ford was smart too in not dumping hundreds of millions into developing an all new Nav and Expedition, unlike GM which is taking a bath on the new Escalade/Tahoe/Yukon. $3 a gallon gas is sending these dinosaurs to what I think will be a quick end.

it?

 

I don't understand why people keep on saying that the Nav and Expy are only refreshed. Aren't they on a new platform? I thought they are now on a F150 modified platform instead of a stretched Explorer?

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I don't understand why people keep on saying that the Nav and Expy are only refreshed. Aren't they on a new platform? I thought they are now on a F150 modified platform instead of a stretched Explorer?

I don't think they ever were on a stretched Explorer. They were on one of Jac Nasser's 'better ideas'.

 

The idea was to take a small number of somewhat skilled engineers and let them have their way with an F150. The result was the 2003 Expy. It was practically a bespoke platform. Yet it was not as smooth or as friendly as the Tahoe.

 

And yes, the NEW Expy and Navi ride on an updated T1 frame that will be moved to the F150 in a year or so.

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Replace the Fusion with an all new car that generates excitement on the level of the Chevy Cobalt. Not just a re-skin but a really cool new car, perhaps based on the Mazda-3.

 

 

Dont you mean Focus and Caliber?

 

The Cobalt isnt a bad car, just it reminds me way too much of the Caliver

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Go ahead and defend the status quo at Ford. Hasn't been too successful though, has it?

the expedition is in trouble, but if Ford does the mmarketing right, they are actually a superior choice to the Chevys ....

this is a sigificant change, and the tne Expy at least looks new, although the greenhouse is still very similar.

however with the new (better than Chevy) interior, and with chevy having some glaring omissions in their options lists (4speed atx, no fold flat third row etc) the Expy has a lot of selling points - the only Tahoe selling point is MPG which is about +2 from the Expy.

 

NEways ... Ford's pipeline is in trouble for the next 2 years.. but what is coming down right after that is mad exciting ... in my eyes it is similar to what is right now coming down for Saturn, but instead in FoMoCo, the main brand- Ford will get the goodies.

 

Igor

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