bzcat

Medium size vans makes for good popup camper. Unfortunately this size van just doesn't pencil out for fleet buyers in the US so we won't get it. VW and Mercedes both also sells OEM pop up campers as well based on midsize van chassis. VW California and Mercedes Marco Polo.

The plan is good. It's the gap between current Edge phase out and replacement that is baffling. The article says the replacement EV is coming after 2nd gen Lightning launch. So we are talking about 2026? I guess it will be the companion model to 2nd gen Mach E. Meanwhile, Edge is supposed to be gone after 2023 model year,

Meanwhile at GM, Camaro is still slated for execution next year. I think any complaints about what Ford is doing with Mustang is misplaced. Farley is doing exactly what Ford should be doing... keep elevating the Mustang brand and keep it relevant.

Scout EV pickup and SUV are both already confirmed by VW. It will probably be very similar to the Rivian in size... a bit bigger than midsize and meaningfully smaller than fullsize.

After Farley took over, he quickly scaled back the MEB deal. First he cancelled the US North America production, and then he limited it to the two models at Cologne. The volume commitment was reduced to 1.2 million units (I recall it was 5 million units before in both US and Europe). But anyway, Farley understood that it was foolish to give up that much control of your product decision to your competitor. It's ok as a tactical short term move but it never made any sense as a long term strategic move, unless you wanted to eventually exit the car making business. BTW, the other side of the VW-Ford deal involving Ford making Amarok and Transporter for VW is quite favorable for Ford.

If there is one, it would be TE1. I think Ranger and Bronco are lined up for PHEV instead of EV. At least for the current gen. Who know what next gen would bring...

VW's MEB are grandfathered in because they were launched before the new reg took place. They will be required to comply when they are updated next time. It's not clear if Ford intended to launch the car before the reg took place to be grandfathered in as well but the fact is that it won't be given the delays. So if Ford knew about this, they made the decision to source different battery on their own. We also know Ford is building this car themselves and retooled an entire plant to do it so they have vested interest to institute their own production methods and process whenever possible. However, I don't really know the rest... it is all conjecture. But logically, if you are going to setup supply chain for your own battery (and Ford has done that in Europe: https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/feu/en/news/2023/02/21/ford--lg-energy-solution--and-koc-holding-to-establish-a-joint-v.html ), then it's not that difficult to also source your own motors. And if you are building this as opposed to asking VW to supply you with a rebadge, there is no reason not to have your own complete supply chain. And given Farley's recent statement on that Ford will control all the software on its car going forward, and the reason for the delay - thermal management is one that is typically software driven, I deduced that Ford must be doing everything I mentioned (assembly, battery, motor, software) in house. That leaves just the basic platform itself from VW.

Ford is using the MEB platform but doing its own powertrain (batteries and motors) and software.

T3 is the current F-150 and F-150 Lightning platform

Modified B2 is coming in 2023 in Romania (Puma and Transit Courier EV). GE2 is coming in 2024 in the Oakville SUV formerly known as Explorer, and eventually other midsize and large unibody SUVs. TE1 is coming in 2025 on F-150, and eventually other trucks and current BOF SUVs. CE1 is coming in 2027... no idea what model it will replace yet but probably everything cheaper/smaller than current Escape/Kuga and will probably replace the B2 and MEB based product when they age out.

New Edge came later, mainly as a response to the disastrous oval period. Mk3 Taurus, Mk2 Scorpio, and AU Falcon were the last hurrah for Ford's "Aero" design language that was kicked off in 1982 with Sierra in Europe and 1983 Thunderbird in the US. It eventually lead to the oval period in the 90s (remember the oval grille opening and tail light on the Contour?). New Edge was a break from the oval period. New Edge featured more tapered lines and banished the ovals. Roughly speaking, if the car had any oval on it, it was not a New Edge car. The time period, based on when the design launched, roughly speaking is: 1982-1990: Classic Aero period 1991-1996: Late Aero period (aka Oval period) 1997-2005: New Edge There are some overlap between the period of course due to designs being locked in ahead of production. New Edge technically first appeared on 1997 Ka while the rest of the Ford was still stuck in the oval period. But it wasn't called New Edge until the 1999 Focus came out, and soon followed by Cougar and Mk3 Mondeo. Most New Edge cars have aged quite well: Mk3 Mondeo, Mk1 Focus, Mk1 Escape, Mk1 Puma, Mk4 Fiesta, Ka, Cougar, Mk1 Transit Connect, Mk1 C-Max etc. The AU Falcon design is sometime credited as New Edge but design was locked in during the oval period but Ford Australia couldn't get funding to build it until the rest of the company has moved into the New Edge design language. A hastily organized redesign (AU II) incorporating New Edge elemented was launched even before AU was shown to the public. The AU was poorly received and the AU II update didn't help very much and the AU was quickly abandoned (planned AY and AZ facelift never happened). The next gen BA Falcon was firmly rooted in the New Edge design language. The difference was pretty obvious. The New Edge Mustang (1999) is another compromised design and not a true reflection of New Edge. It was basically just a mild facelift of the 1994 SN95 Mustang from the Aero design language. The designers were not allowed to change any hard points of the body.

There was definitely something wrong with Ford's design template during that time. All 3 large sedans from that period looked like turds: Mk3 Taurus, Mk 2 Scorpio, AU Falcon

Transit passenger vans in North America are also aimed at fleet customers. The last time Ford seriously tried to market a van for retail customer in North America was the 1992 E-150 Club Wagon. It was discontinued only after a year or two because no retail customers were that interested in a van. The Tourneo version of the vans in Europe likewise is mainly targeting commercial buyers (airport shuttles, VIP shuttles, "minicab" taxi etc). The smaller Tourneo Connect and Tourneo Courier does have some non-commercial sales in Europe but that's mainly because the regular small vans/tall wagons like B-Max and C-Max have completely disappeared from the market, so what little of the demand left is pushed towards the Tourneo passenger vans.

Huh? When did Ford ever fleet dump vans? By definition, only fleets buy vans in any meaningful volumes so Ford's entire van business is geared towards maximizing margin on fleet sales. Selling van into retail private buyers is the margin killing part of the business, which is why Ford doesn't even try (they haven't offered Club Wagon version of Transit for a reason). I guess retail dumping is a thing if Ford ever tries to sell unwanted vans to retail customers for cheap. But that never happens. Have you actually paid any attention to the transaction price on a van? You may want to do some research on that. This is a business that Ford has figured out and dominates on both sides of Atlantic and contributes significantly to the gross margin. It's such a cornerstone of Ford's profitability that Farley separated into its own profit center (Ford Pro) to highlight its contribution for the investor community. If the van business was all low margin like you imagined, Farley would have killed it like he did with Fiesta.

That's because the sales chart you are looking at ignore commercial vehicles. Ford Europe still has several top 15 vehicles. It's just they are called Transit and Transit Custom instead of Escort and Sierra. Ford is making better margin focusing on the right product than try to keep selling Fiesta. It was a strategic choice. It doesn't matter to Ford if the factory is building a Fiesta or a Transit... but one is profitable and the other one is not.

It doesn't have anything to do with burying costs. Mach E is produced by Chang'an Ford so the cost is not moving, it was alway a Chang'an Ford cost. They are just getting rid of the separate distribution network setup to sell Mach E. Ford China wanted a separate direct to consumer sales process for Mach E where customers have to reserve the car from the website and bypass going to Chang'an Ford dealers. Ford setup a few separate showrooms in big cities but the only real way to buy the car is thru the internet. Taking Mach E out of Chang'an Ford sales channel was probably a fever dream of some marketing expat from the US. Totally ignores how the Chinese market works. Another big mistake was calling it Mach E in China instead of coming up with a Mandarin name, probably another decision made by expat Ford China executive. The separate sales teams and showroom means regular Chang'an Ford dealers didn't have an opportunity to up-sell the car and the new Mach E sales team has no customer leads for a car that has no Mandarin name. The majority of car sales in China is done through the sales people combing thru their contact list... in another word, by relationship. The idea that Ford can just setup a few dedicated showrooms and wait for customer to come find it on the internet shows a complete lack of knowledge on how cars are sold in China. It's really mind boggling for a company that has been in China for almost 2 decades. The fact that this got signed off probably also explains why Ford is now in the same category with Stellantis in China rather than in the same peer group as VW, Hyundai, or Toyota. Jiangling Ford, the once forgotten backwater of Ford China that expat Ford executives don't want to have anything to do with, is starting to look like a much more successful operation than flagship Chang'an Ford, which is just sabotaged by constant stream of bad decisions on product, sales, marketing etc.

Ford just keep sabotaging itself in China

Lack of inventory? Looks like Ford has about 1,800 units in stock which based on YTD sales is roughly 45 days in stock. That normally is a good inventory level but when the gross number drops that low (below 2,000), availability becomes a problem. Maybe the customs wants blue but most of the 1,800 units are white, for example. That's an extreme example but you get the point... maybe the 1,800 scattered around dealer lots do not have desirable color or options and they are very slow to churn, while the dealers have ran out of the popular trim or option/color combo. Looks at the production chart... in June, Ford stopped building Aviator/Explorer for part of the month. In July the production rebounded a little but still not to normal level. That means they are drawing down the inventory and if customer can't find the right combo at Lincoln dealer, they move on to the Acura or Audi dealer across the street.

Is this the first month Bronco Sport outsold Escape?

Also Transit Connect which is a rebadged VW Caddy. The partnership also include Ford supplying VW with a "one-ton" van which is still unknown but is probably the new Transit Custom rebadged as VW Transporter. Originally, VW was going to phase out production of T6 Transporter at Hannover to make room for ID Buzz (VW will keep making T7 Caravelle, Multivan and California) but it's unclear if that is still the case. Transit Custom was revealed earlier this year so if VW is going to follow thru, the Transporter should be out soon. Ford is the largest van and pickup truck seller in Europe. It enjoys very good margin and pricing power on these products due to its market share so I don't see them leaving anytime soon. If they can pivot successfully to a CUV only or CUV-centric brand on the retails side it will probably be ok. Selling millions of Fiesta and Focus never made Ford any money in Europe. It was always propped up by margins from Transit vans, even back in the Escort and Sierra days. This is also why some not so bright people back in the day thought buying Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover was the solution to Ford Europe's problem because those cars held the possibility of higher margins.

As I noted in the new product thread, this interior is carried over from the current Chinese market Transit Custom (which is sold as "Transit" but is changing its name to Tourneo to make way for this new Transit). It's facelift version of the current MK4 Transit FWD. The Mk3 Transit Pro is still for sale in China in RWD format.

Ford is selling Bronco Sport as a premium product so the base model never made a whole lot of sense. Ford has Escape for people that want a cheaper vehicle. Or Maverick for that matter. Base model on Bronco I get... there are some people who like to build their own offroader with aftermarket parts and starting from base model without the factory upgrades makes sense. Also Ford doesn't want you to defect to a base Wrangler instead. These are not concerns on Bronco Sport.

The cost of compliance is going to rise and demand for it may shrink to a point it doesn't make financial sense to keep offering it. I'm not disputing that. But you may be underestimating the longtail demand on ICE. Automatic transmission are cheaper for regulatory compliance and offer superior performance and yet about 5% of vehicles sold is still manual, despite many attempts to obsolete it. Same will be true of ICE by 2030. If Mustang is the only ICE vehicle Ford sells in 2030, I think it can survive in limited volumes. They'll have to throw some money to hybridize it but in the US at least, CAFE is ostensibly technology agnostic and CARB has yet to adopt a total ban on ICE and may never do so. And superior performance is not the selling point of ICE, specifically the V8 kind. There won't be anyone wanting a 2.0 I4 crossover with soul crushing CVT by 2035, I think that's clear... EV is a far superior solution. But we are not talking about that. Just like manual transmission, Mustang V8's appeal is emotional not rational or statistical.

Sensible decision. But probably want to hedge a bit and still develop an EV Mustang. Porsche is making the same decision on 911.

Chinese Ranger is pretty much going to be exclusively high end models. The entry level work horse type buyers will be offered JMC Dadao which appears to be cost-engineered version of new Ranger, or even older/cheaper designs like JMC Yuhu or Baodian.