mackinaw

A $25,000 BEV is now the price of admission into the EV game. There was an excellent article in the Detroit News on this topic that , unfortunately, is behind a paywall. Luckily, I subscribe. Some quotes: "As a result, a profitable $25,000 EV has become a golden egg in the industry. Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk says the Texas-based company will have an EV at that price point soon. Tavares points to the slim-margin Citroën ë-C3, a hatchback built in Slovakia from the French brand not sold in the United States whose mid trim is about $25,000 (23,300 euro), as an achievement. And Ford Motor Co. CEO Jim Farley says the Dearborn automaker is working as quickly as possible to bring a new low-cost EV platform to market that could support a vehicle priced as low as $25,000." "To get mainstream customers interested, the $25,000 price tag is a good target, experts say, and it can be attainable. “The question is for a first-generation $25,000 EV for the U.S. market: What compromises will they have to make?” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal e-mobility analyst at market research firm Guidehouse Inc. “How much range will they have to give up to get to that $25,000, or what features will they have to give up?" "Given such few $25,000 options even among traditional vehicles, the question then arises if there is a market for affordable EVs. Colin Langan, analyst at Wells Fargo & Co., recently questioned whether one exists beyond an alternative for buyers in the used market. “New car buyers usually buy for the status of it,” he said last month during the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Automotive Insights Symposium. “To get the price point low, you need a really small battery and less weight, and I just don't know that the market is there. It doesn't mean there's not a huge market in China, or there's not a market in Europe. But to do a $25,000 vehicle, it needs to be right now very small." As a result, executives and experts say to have a slate of desirable and affordable EVs, there need to be changes in the supply chain, advances in manufacturing processes and developments in battery technology such as with cheaper materials." Much more here, if you subscribe: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2024/02/21/affordability-auto-industry-25000-dollar-ev/72574561007/

All this Detroit News article says is that they are now being shipped to dealers. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/02/23/ford-pauses-f-150-lightning-shipments-lengthened-quality-check/72717996007/

The pressure came from the investment community. Five years ago, influential Wall Street analysts, like Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley), predicted the EV wave would be like a tsunami. He was predicting mass adoption of EV's in a matter of a few years. If your company wasn't seen as investing in EV's, then it had no future. So, fearful that they would lose investors, every manufacturer fell in line and developed EV's. Fast forward to 2024, and the mass adoption of EV's is moving at a much slower rate than anyone expected (outside of Akio Toyoda). As is always the case, the marketplace has the final word.

Misery loves company? Rivian just announced they've lost $43,000/vehicle from October-December of last year.

That was a very interesting read. Sounds like batteries are very difficult to manufacture, especially in volume. And GM kind of shot themselves in the foot by not hiring new engineers who understand this new technology. I see GM just hired a Tesla battery engineer to right the ship. He's got his work cut out for him.

Which will end up being one gigantic compromise. EV's and ICE are just too different to think that one generic platform can do each drivetrain justice.

Ford went from 202,000 employees in 2017 to 173,000 employees in 2022. They added 4,000 employees in 2023. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/number-of-employees

I took it to mean they've eliminated layers of useless bureaucracy.

From the Detroit News: Bill Ford Jr., executive chairman of Ford Motor Co., will be inducted into the Automotive Hall of Fame in September alongside six other industry veterans, the Dearborn nonprofit said Friday. Ford is the great-grandson of Henry Ford, who founded the Dearborn automaker 120 years ago. Since becoming executive chairman a quarter of a century ago, Ford has overseen the company through tumultuous periods in the industry from when it staved off bankruptcy during the Great Recession to the ongoing historic transformation toward zero-tailpipe-emission vehicles. Ford offers a "values-driven approach that demonstrates corporate responsibility and success can go hand in hand," according to a news release. "He was an early and influential advocate for sustainability and environmental responsibility, a driving force behind mobility innovation, and continues to be a champion for the revitalization of the Motor City." https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/02/16/automotive-hall-of-fame-induct-bill-ford-edelbrock-john-james-wendell-scott-motherson/72629064007/

And now we have this: "UAW threatens new strike at Ford's Kentucky Truck Plant if local contract isn't resolved" https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/02/16/uaw-threatens-strike-ford-kentucky-truck-plant-local-contract-negotiations/72629651007/?csp=chromepush

I thought stainless steel didn't rust. Apparently I'm wrong. https://jalopnik.com/why-tesla-cybertrucks-are-rusting-despite-being-made-of-1851257091

Shawn Fain's response: "UAW President Shawn Fain slams Ford CEO's comments on 'manufacturing footprint" https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/02/15/ford-ceo-says-company-will-rethink-where-it-builds-vehicles-after-last-years-autoworkers-strike/72612953007/

From today's Detroit News. The recent UAW strike has changed things. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/02/15/ford-ceo-says-company-will-rethink-where-it-builds-vehicles-after-last-years-autoworkers-strike/72612953007/

Very interesting article in the Detroit News. Ford Model E COO, Marin Gjaja, recently spoke at a panel discussing disruptive technology. He also mentions that the target price for the new Ford low cost EV line to be about $25,000-$30,000. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/02/14/ford-model-e-marin-gjaja-ev-market-chinese-automakers/72599365007/

Suicide and gullwing doors? Yeah, right. Very little of what you see in this concept will see production. It's a nice design exercise though.

Sure they're talking out both sides of their mouth, but Toyota Board Chair, Akio Toyoda, remains quite skeptical about EV's. He sees EV adoption rate peaking at 30% with the remainder being split between hybrids and hydrogen powered vehicles. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toyota-chairman-doubles-down-electric-111721568.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAfAhfo2m5kvRE3m6DZPcUVCfBpFCn9cet6DKS2BJ68tExQozd9OOZKZDMBgAEme8A1J0zXroDLNiTcU2gKduhf7lVQJR6Mpzh286YIB4dEyXmYWbGIPIxrBw6j1pTt1gy4tl73WiTFHZvZEuP_kUcwpR6z96KaETqkdFon7wLwY#:~:text=Toyoda estimated that fully-electric,in aggressively pushing electric vehicles.

Maybe pertinent to this discussion. "Toyota says goodbye to electric cars and focuses on hydrogen – “They are not the solution” https://lagradaonline.com/en/toyota-electric-cars-hydrogen-solution/

Definitely. That question was asked several times by investors on the earning's call. Wall Street is patient, for now.

On this topic, if you have 20 minutes, read through the transcript of the recent 2023 fourth quarter earning's call. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/02/07/ford-motor-company-f-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcr/

To placate Wall Street. Remember this was an earnings call with investors.

109 miles! -2 or not, that is totally unacceptable.

This doesn't surprise me. Farley's already said the lack of an affordable EV keeps him up at night. Plus that BYD scares him more than Tesla. Not surprising they're developing a low-cost EV.

And they're still facing parts shortages. I read that both F-series plants were down for 5-6 days in January, due to supply chain issues. https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2024/02/02/ford-shut-f150-production-layoffs-dearborn-kansas-city/72440430007/

Declining sales? 2023 sales in the U.S. were up over 7% from 2022.

Take rate on retail was less than 5%.