mustang_sallad

it really says something about how incredibly valuable fossil fuels are when you see how complex engines can become just to eek out 26mpg. It's amazing to me that all of the engineering effort was deemed worthwhile.

Ha! Definitely the first time i've been called that. I'm an engineer who works in the industry (utilities, energy, EVs, policy) and I'm eager to make sure people discussing these topics are up to speed with the latest numbers, and that they appreciate that people have been giving these topics a lot of thought and have done a lot of number crunching. I would say I get angry when armchair quarterbacks think of an important consideration (e.g. - taking into account the emissions associated with charging EVs or building their components) and immediately assume that nobody's thought of this before and that it must be an absolute deal breaker. I've been on this forum for about 10 years, with a general theme of "Ford should build more EVs and hybrids". Happy to see the progress we've made since then, especially in terms of the broader support these technologies get from enthusiasts on automotive websites without any kind of a "green" focus.

Regarding China, they've already surpassed their latest 5-year plan (2016-2020) to install 105GW of solar. 35GW of that was installed this year alone. https://cleantechnica.com/2017/08/22/china-continues-massive-solar-installations-10-52-gw-july-already-exceeds-2020-target/ If you don't have a good feel for the scale of these numbers, most nuclear plants in the US are around 1-2GW. Even when you account for the capacity factor (around 25-30% for solar) that should give you an appreciation for the progress that's being made in China. Certainly the air pollution in the cities is a major driver, regardless of where the power plants are located.

Did you see my earlier post about this? http://www.blueovalforums.com/forums/index.php?/topic/63800-lincoln-plans-electrified-lineup-all-models-by-2022/?p=1008933 Yes, right now, and for the foreseeable future, we'll be burning something to generate at least a portion of our electricity. But even with today's grid, EVs are still a huge improvement, and they are getting cleaner as time goes by. Wind and solar are becoming increasingly cost competitive, even when taking into account their intermittency, and natural gas plants are way cleaner and more efficient than coal. Probably even more importantly, natural gas plants are much more flexible than coal, which means they are the perfect partner to make up for variable sources. Longer term, demand response (flexible loads that can respond to the variability of renewables, EVs are a perfect example), energy storage (batteries, pumped hydro), and geographic diversity can also help deal with variable generation.

Absolutely important to consider the whole picture, and I work in the utility industry so give this a lot of thought. I first did my own "well-to-wheels" analysis during my masters around 2009, and the numbers for EVs were already at least as good as gas in the worst case back then. The numbers have only gotten better, because I can assure you that any power plant running at 35% efficiency has probably already shut down for being completely uncompetitive. It's a lot easier to optimize a massive stationary thermal engine operating at a steady state than it is to optimize an engine in a vehicle that has to rev up and down at the driver's request. The data on power plant emissions is readily available through the EPA, so you can do these calculations yourself, but the Union of Concerned Scientists has a "mpg equivalent" map for different sections of the US grid, the latest numbers are from 2014: But to get a sense of where this is headed, best to check out this post which compares this map to what it looked like in 2009: http://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-numbers-are-in-and-evs-are-cleaner-than-ever?_ga=2.99203865.669565143.1505074342-586829010.1425955103 This progress is largely a result of coal plants shutting down in favour of natural gas, wind and solar. Also good to keep in mind that, if you want to take this into your own hands, it's getting pretty easy and affordable to just generate your own electricity with rooftop solar. Awesome from a resilience perspective too, for the preppers out there.

Wow, 8 cylinders, 2 turbos, and a 10 speed transmission to hopefully approach 40% efficiency in the best case while cruising on the highway at a steady speed. Tesla gets 400hp out of a motor the size of a bucket that gets full torque at 0rpm and revs up to 12,000rpm, letting it run with a single speed transmission and get 80-90% efficiency all day long, getting 300 miles out of a full charge that costs $12 at the average US electricity price. EV sales have grown at over 50% yoy every year since they launched around 2011, I think they're on track for something like 60% so far this year, with over 30 models available in the US. But you're right, probably a fad...

Thanks for all the input, everyone. I suspect the Ioniq is in high demand so he thinks he can sell this pretty quickly and without a discount. Turns out that none of the dealers are really stocking this car and you have to order it and then wait 2-3 months. So that means anybody who's interested in this car might be willing to take something slightly used for the same price if it means they get to skip the line. I feel like these guys have found a way to get some benefit out of the demand/supply situation - for new cars, I think they probably aren't allowed to markup, but I guess nothing's stopping them from asking full price on a demo car if the demand is there. I'm in Quebec, Canada. Automakers have been pushing back hard against a California-style ZEV mandate, saying the demand isn't there and they shouldn't be forced to make cars that people don't want. But at least in some regions, supply is definitely lagging demand. I don't know how they even expect to get a true gauge on demand for these cars if the average buyer can't just walk in and try one out and take it home if they like it and they have one in the right colour.

I'm looking to get my hands on a Hyundai Ioniq electric, and dealer has one that was used briefly as a demo vehicle (for a few special events and test drives) and has about 1500 miles on it. What would be a reasonable discount on a car like this? You always hear about how much value the car loses the minute it leaves the dealer, but in this case, the dealer is asking full price. That seems unreasonable, so I told him I wasn't interested, so i'm just wondering what would be reasonable. The Focus EV is my point of comparison. After tax and government incentives, they're coming in around $31k, whereas this Ioniq is around $38k.

The guys on Autoline are traditional auto journalists that don't really know how to wrap their heads around EVs. So many reviewers test these cars without having access to Level 2 charging at home, so their impression of the car misses out on the most convenient part of owning an EV. They have haul out that portable 120V cordset every time they get home - which is both a hassle and painfully slow (20+ hours vs 4 hours on Level 2). If you can charge at home, you'll be waking up with a full tank every morning, and you won't even have to think twice about whether you've got enough range for your commute, even in cold weather - you've got a decent buffer. I'm counting about 30 DC fast chargers in CT, and probably a ton more coming. So between those, and the hundreds of Level 2 stations in the state, including some at or near your work, you've got plenty of safety net. Cost of electricity in CT looks to be around $0.09/kWh. Focus is rated at 31kWh/100 miles, vs 3.2 gallons/100 miles (fueleconomy.gov). So on electricity, that's $2.79 per 100 miles. For gas to be cheaper, it would have to be $2.79 per 3.2 gallons, or $0.87 per gallon. I think it would be a stretch to find somewhere in the US where driving on electricity would be more expensive than gas, especially if you can charge overnight during off-peak hours. McElroy in that video is talking about cost of using a DC fast charger ("Level 3") - that's not every day. 95% of the time, you're charging up at home at cheap rates. For these guys to fixate on the cost of public charging just highlights how they've never actually lived with an EV as an actual EV owner would with charging at home and almost never needing public charing. And for him to suggest that you should base your assessment of the cost of ownership of an EV on peak rates is ridiculous. Who needs to do all of their charging during peak hours? The Focus EV comes with a timer so you can get it to automatically start charging when electricity is cheap, and that's a huge benefit for the grid that has all sorts of excess capacity. You can hear them start to remember some of these factoids towards the end of their discussion, confusing the idea of throwing dedicated storage into the mix... you can tell their a little over their heads, and it's good that they just cut themselves off there rather than spouting out a bunch of mixed up talking points that'll confuse their audience.

I'm in a similar situation to you - I have a 2012 Focus (manual, hatchback) and looking for a second car for a commuter, and definitely want it to be electric. Beyond just the range, I think the Bolt would also be the best bet just in terms of having the latest and greatest in battery and powertrain tech. I have more faith in GM than anybody else in terms of battery durability - they really coddle those things, and Volts are fairing really well. But as nice as all that sounds, it's hard to justify the extra $10k or so over a Focus which has enough range for my daily commute. My biggest complaint about the Focus is the space under the hatch. It would be annoying for my own use on a regular basis, but probably worse than that would be having to explain to everyone that looks under the hatch that, "no, not all EVs have such terrible packaging". The other car I'm having a look at is the Hyundai Ioniq. Even a bit more range than the Focus, and has a totally flat cargo area. It's a brand new, clean slate design by a company that is clearly committed to the platform (vs shoehorning a higher capacity battery into a model that is clearly not long for this world). The eGolf is also really nice with similar price and specs, though a bit smaller than the Focus. I'm also a bit more convinced of VW's commitment to electrification even if they're sort of being forced into it at this point! But I keep coming back to the Focus because it's just a bit cheaper, and the 0% financing is pretty sweet. I'm just worried I'll be kicking myself in a few years for not spending a bit more and getting something a little less dated. Too bad the 2017 refresh wasn't a bit more comprehensive...

Those are hilarious stories. My point was that if Tesla was actually the result of some hotshot at Ford who had turned Lincoln into an all-electric lineup, with cars that are as fast and nice to look at as Tesla, built entirely in US plants, that was getting as much positive press and brand equity as Tesla, performing the same as Tesla (meaning not making any money yet, but Ford's stock was up significantly) and was on the verge of scaling that up into a more affordable model that has 300,000 deposits... I can imagine that this forum would think pretty highly of the guy.

Yes, but none of them have attempted to increase production by 1000% over a few years. My point is that what they're trying to do is exceptional. And I don't mean exceptional in the sense of praising them, I mean it literally, as in "unusual; not typical".

The Model S is profitable, they're just pouring a bit of money into, you know, scaling up production by a factor of 10, and deploying a global network of high power charging stations. Things that not many other car companies do very often. It's funny cause in EV crowds, I'm generally seen as a Tesla basher, but you come on here and the hatred is incredible! If this guy's last name was Ford, everybody on here would be fawning all over him.

I agree the guy is overhyped, and the tunnel idea is stupid, but... one of the guy's companies is selling 50,000 EVs per year and another company is delivering stuff to the space station on a regular basis, and has figured out how to land rockets back on the ground and reuse them. Just saying he's accomplished a bit more than Jim Jones...

what would I have said back in 2012 if somebody told me that in 5 years, every thread about Tesla on this site would be half-filled with people reassuring themselves that Ford is probably still worth more than Tesla? It'd be really interesting to compare Tesla's manufacturing efficiency specifically to Ford's plug-in vehicles. I'm considering buying a Focus Electric (only thing holding me back is the trunk space) and it's taking its sweet time to work its way down the pipeline. Probably harder to compare since they share an assembly line with the other powertrains.