Does the Vaccine Matter?

[sprinter]

Interesting article from The Alantic

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200911/brownlee-h1n1#

 

Yet in the view of several vaccine skeptics, this claim is suspicious on its face. Influenza causes only a small minority of all deaths in the U.S., even among senior citizens, and even after adding in the deaths to which flu might have contributed indirectly. When researchers from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases included all deaths from illnesses that flu aggravates, like lung disease or chronic heart failure, they found that flu accounts for, at most, 10 percent of winter deaths among the elderly. So how could flu vaccine possibly reduce total deaths by half? Tom Jefferson, a physician based in Rome and the head of the Vaccines Field at the Cochrane Collaboration, a highly respected international network of researchers who appraise medical evidence, says: “For a vaccine to reduce mortality by 50 percent and up to 90 percent in some studies means it has to prevent deaths not just from influenza, but also from falls, fires, heart disease, strokes, and car accidents. That’s not a vaccine, that’s a miracle.”

 

The estimate of 50 percent mortality reduction is based on “cohort studies,” which compare death rates in large groups, or cohorts, of people who choose to be vaccinated, against death rates in groups who don’t. But people who choose to be vaccinated may differ in many important respects from people who go unvaccinated—and those differences can influence the chance of death during flu season. Education, lifestyle, income, and many other “confounding” factors can come into play, and as a result, cohort studies are notoriously prone to bias. When researchers crunch the numbers, they typically try to factor out variables that could bias the results, but, as Jefferson remarks, “you can adjust for the confounders you know about, not for the ones you don’t,” and researchers can’t always anticipate what factors are likely to be important to whether a patient dies from flu. There is always the chance that they might miss some critical confounder that renders their results entirely wrong.

 

When Lisa Jackson, a physician and senior investigator with the Group Health Research Center, in Seattle, began wondering aloud to colleagues if maybe something was amiss with the estimate of 50 percent mortality reduction for people who get flu vaccine, the response she got sounded more like doctrine than science. “People told me, ‘No good can come of [asking] this,’” she says. “‘Potentially a lot of bad could happen’ for me professionally by raising any criticism that might dissuade people from getting vaccinated, because of course, ‘We know that vaccine works.’ This was the prevailing wisdom.”

 

Nonetheless, in 2004, Jackson and three colleagues set out to determine whether the mortality difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated might be caused by a phenomenon known as the “healthy user effect.” They hypothesized that on average, people who get vaccinated are simply healthier than those who don’t, and thus less liable to die over the short term. People who don’t get vaccinated may be bedridden or otherwise too sick to go get a shot. They may also be more likely to succumb to flu or any other illness, because they are generally older and sicker. To test their thesis, Jackson and her colleagues combed through eight years of medical data on more than 72,000 people 65 and older. They looked at who got flu shots and who didn’t. Then they examined which group’s members were more likely to die of any cause when it was not flu season.

 

Jackson’s findings showed that outside of flu season, the baseline risk of death among people who did not get vaccinated was approximately 60 percent higher than among those who did, lending support to the hypothesis that on average, healthy people chose to get the vaccine, while the “frail elderly” didn’t or couldn’t. In fact, the healthy-user effect explained the entire benefit that other researchers were attributing to flu vaccine, suggesting that the vaccine itself might not reduce mortality at all. Jackson’s papers “are beautiful,” says Lone Simonsen, who is a professor of global health at George Washington University, in Washington, D.C., and an internationally recognized expert in influenza and vaccine epidemiology. “They are classic studies in epidemiology, they are so carefully done.”

 

The results were also so unexpected that many experts simply refused to believe them. Jackson’s papers were turned down for publication in the top-ranked medical journals. One flu expert who reviewed her studies for the Journal of the American Medical Association wrote, “To accept these results would be to say that the earth is flat!” When the papers were finally published in 2006, in the less prominent International Journal of Epidemiology, they were largely ignored by doctors and public-health officials. “The answer I got,” says Jackson, “was not the right answer.”

[NickF1011]

Of course the vaccine matters!! How else is Big Brother going to inject us with those secret mind-altering drugs and nanobots used to track our movement?

[Ron W.]

Does the Vaccine Matter?

 

 

No, we're all going to die anyway

 

Just can't get out of life alive. :shades:

[xr7g428]

How do you explain the complete extermination of small pox virus, and the near extermination of the polio virus, if immunization doesn't work? How could that happen?

 

How do you explain the most simple direct test where a subject is immunized and then exposed to the disease and then doesn't get the disease? Not just once but in thousands of trials over and over again?

[akirby]

How do you explain the complete extermination of small pox virus, and the near extermination of the polio virus, if immunization doesn't work? How could that happen?

 

How do you explain the most simple direct test where a subject is immunized and then exposed to the disease and then doesn't get the disease? Not just once but in thousands of trials over and over again?

 

How do you explain not reading the article? The question isn't whether the vaccine is effective at preventing the flu. Obviously it is. The question is whether it prevents deaths from the flu which is a much different question that's harder to answer. It may be that the people who are protected by the vaccine would not have died anyway had they contracted the flu without the vaccine. And the people that die would have died whether they got the vaccine or not.

[xr7g428]

I did read the article.

 

The question isn't whether the vaccine is effective at preventing the flu. Obviously it is.

 

If the vaccine is effective at preventing the flu, and we agree that it is, (where the patient is healthy enough to develop the antibodies to the pathogen). Then those people won't be getting the strain of the flu that is being immunized against. You can't die from a disease you never contract.

 

The question is whether it prevents deaths from the flu which is a much different question that's harder to answer.

 

It seems self evident that you won't be dying from something you don't get. If you stay out of bars, you will never die in a bar fight.

 

It may be that the people who are protected by the vaccine would not have died anyway had they contracted the flu without the vaccine.

 

So just because there is a chance that you might not die of the flu, you should not get vaccinated? How about the benefit of not being sick?

 

And the people that die would have died whether they got the vaccine or not.

 

So since there is chance that you might get run over by a bus tomorrow, there is no need to get vaccinated today?

 

The reason she can't get published is because there is a difference between causation and coincidence. After a plane crash, they discovered that everyone that dies had recently eaten carrots. Does this make eating carrots on a plane increase your risk of dieing in a plane crash, or did they just put carrots in the salad that they served on the flight?

[sprinter]

How do you explain the complete extermination of small pox virus, and the near extermination of the polio virus, if immunization doesn't work? How could that happen?

 

How do you explain the most simple direct test where a subject is immunized and then exposed to the disease and then doesn't get the disease? Not just once but in thousands of trials over and over again?

 

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/us...acy-of-vaccines

 

The Effectiveness of Vaccines

Even if the vaccines were being developed in a safe manner, with safe ingredients, vaccines are not necessarily going to protect someone from getting a certain virus. If the disease mutates, as must happen if the swine flu is to become a major health threat, the inoculation will likely be essentially useless because human antibodies are generally virus-specific. But even if the virus were not to mutate, and even if it were extremely lethal (which it is not), the vaccine may not offer protection.

 

“So-called pandemic vaccines, well we never know whether they’ll work,” explained Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist at the Cochrane Institute, about what he believed was an unjustified panic regarding the swine flu. “What the evidence shows, from the hundreds of studies that we have reviewed, is that these vaccines have got a performance [record] which is not very good.” He told a Swedish television station that the immunizations usually work best in healthy adults, who are the lowest priority for receiving them anyway, and that the reason for the hysteria is the interests of those selling “a product.”

 

Dr. Sherri Tenpenny, one of the leading experts on the dangers of vaccines, shows in various presentations — using statistics and data gathered from the CDC and other official sources — that vaccines’ efficacy leaves much to be desired, yet they expose recipients to a wide array of risks. She notes that the immunizations given to children usually only last a number of years, and that “the presence of antibodies does not guarantee that you will not get sick.” The potential immunity obtained from a hepatitis vaccine, for example, is gone in a majority of people within around 10 years. This is the reason people are often re-vaccinated. According to Dr. Tenpenny, most antibodies babies get are “all gone” by the time they are 12 years old. She continued by explaining: “If they inject you with a substance and it creates an antibody, they call it effective. It is one of the biggest myths — maybe scams — of the entire vaccine industry.” Verifying part of her claim, the WHO is already warning that the virus is developing resistance to the vaccine. So even the presence of an immune response does not mean it will offer protection.

 

Vaccines are not safe and effective, Dr. Tenpenny insists. They are linked to problems like allergies, diabetes, and a host of medical problems. For example, research and published studies by immunologist and president of Classen Immunotherapies Dr. Bart Classen have shown that vaccines cause up to 80 percent of insulin-dependent diabetes in children vaccinated multiple times. In addition, vaccines are not responsible for the elimination of infectious diseases. They may in fact be causing a resurgence of the diseases that they purport to protect against. “I really think that it is the greatest deception ever propagated on an unsuspecting public — that doing something in the name of health and helping is in fact plausibly detrimental and potentially life threatening.”

 

Counterintuitively, the facts seem to back her up. A CDC chart on the efficacy of seasonal vaccines shows that flu deaths were steadily decreasing until vaccine programs were rolled out, then flu cases burgeoned. For example, in 1980, about 20 percent of the elderly population was covered by immunizations, and there were about 20 deaths per 100,000 elderly people. Then in the year 2000, when approximately 65 percent of the elderly population had vaccine coverage, deaths had soared to almost 35 per 100,000. The trend is consistent and immediately obvious even to the untrained eye.

“Most people believe that victory over the infectious diseases of the last century came with the invention of immunisations,” writes Dr. Andrew Weil in Health and Healing. “In fact, cholera, typhoid, tetanus, diphtheria and whooping cough, etc., were in decline before vaccines for them became available — the result of better methods of sanitation, sewage disposal, and distribution of food and water.”

[suv_guy_19]

Oh you're so full of it. I can't even fathom that people believe some of the crap that they read.

Edited October 17, 2009 by suv_guy_19

[akirby]

I'm not against vaccines at all. Polio and smallpox vaccines seem to be 100% effective or darn close to it. However, influenza is a different story. People who never get a flu shot don't get the flu and some people who do get the flu shot actually get the flu anyway. There are many different strains and mutations and the vaccine only works against one. And even without the vaccine the death rate from the flu is very small statistically speaking and usually involves people who have other problems with their immune system, etc.

 

If the flu vaccines were as effective as smallpox and polio then it would be a different story, but it's not. That's all I'm saying. But if you're in a high risk group then you should definitely be getting the vaccine.

[Edstock]

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/us...acy-of-vaccines

What a lot of tripe.

 

As smallpox has proved, vaccination works. It's not perfect, but it's better than getting the disease. Dr. Tenpenny is unhappy that vaccines don't last for ever, that re-vaccination may be required. So what? That's the way the human body handles antibodies.

 

So, you don't "believe" in vaccination?

 

Great, go "believe" in anything you want. It's your life to shorten as you see fit.

[sprinter]

Oh you're so full of it. I can' even fathom that people believe some of the crap that they read.

 

And I can't believe how gullible others are like you accepting any government's word without question.

 

As for shorting my life, I'm 52 and very healthy. I am not taking any medication, exercise some and watch what I eat. And it has been over 25 years ago since I had a flu shot.

 

And for those of you that think polio vaccinations are curing polio, all one has to do is check other countries where the citizens were vaccinated and polio is re-emerging. How could that be?

[xr7g428]

And for those of you that think polio vaccinations are curing polio, all one has to do is check other countries where the citizens were vaccinated and polio is re-emerging. How could that be?

 

Polio was on the brink of extermination in Africa when a rumor got started that vaccination would make them sterile. So they stopped getting immunized. This created a reservoir of the disease. Exactly as expected, the disease is now moving back into the world population and eventually the process of eliminating the disease will start over again, all because of unfunded rumors about the effectiveness of the vaccine.

 

What is the world coming to? Edstock and I on the same side of an issue? Cats sleeping with dogs I tell ya' LOL!

[Dale143]

I think you all should see this.

 

http://www.casttv.com/video/1kqtuy1/doctor...-his-kids-video

 

Did he say mercury level is 25000 x's that of water and food?

 

This video shows a serious side affect from the shot.Last night on the news they said it was the h1n1 shot not the seasonal one.

 

http://www.casttv.com/twitter?topic=%22swi...u%22%20OR%20Flu

 

This video doesn't show how badly this affected her ability to walk as last night on the news did.

Edited October 16, 2009 by Dale143

[suv_guy_19]

And I can't believe how gullible others are like you accepting any government's word without question.

 

 

I'd rather be accused of accepting the word of government (and private sector also I might add) scientists than every far out article that comes along. The truth isn't always hiding under a rock. Sometimes it's right there, in the real world.

[sprinter]

I'd rather be accused of accepting the word of government (and private sector also I might add) scientists than every far out article that comes along. The truth isn't always hiding under a rock. Sometimes it's right there, in the real world.

 

Just like global warming :hysterical:

[sprinter]

Polio was on the brink of extermination in Africa when a rumor got started that vaccination would make them sterile. So they stopped getting immunized. This created a reservoir of the disease. Exactly as expected, the disease is now moving back into the world population and eventually the process of eliminating the disease will start over again, all because of unfunded rumors about the effectiveness of the vaccine.

 

What is the world coming to? Edstock and I on the same side of an issue? Cats sleeping with dogs I tell ya' LOL!

 

 

It's not just Africa, do the research

[suv_guy_19]

Global climate change is a reality (constant, in fact). The cause isn't so much known, but the guesses are good. I'm sure that science will figure out the real answer in the end.

[sprinter]

Global climate change is a reality (constant, in fact). The cause isn't so much known, but the guesses are good. I'm sure that science will figure out the real answer in the end.

 

You're singing a different tune now, change instead of warming?

[suv_guy_19]

The climate isn't warming everywhere. I've never sang such a tune. It's changing, and for over a decade the general trend was warming, but that seems to have changed in the last few years....except in the high arctic.

[xr7g428]

SUV, the climate is never warming or cooling everywhere, and no one ever said that it was... well may be you did. That would be absurd. What has been stipulated is that the global average temperature is supposed to be rising. Emphasis on the word AVERAGE. The big problem with the theory, with all of those computer models, is that for the past 10 years, the warming has not occurred. Not only could they not forecast the temperature accurately for 100 years, they couldn't get it right for the first ten. In fact the best guess now is that we are in for a period of cooling.

 

Or perhaps we are seeing a change in your opinion? Do you still believe that CO2 is the single driving force in global temperature, and that man is capable of accurately controlling and regulating the climate?

 

I'm just curious, what set of facts would be required to get you to change your opinion?

 

It should be abundantly obvious that the good people in government make mistakes. Weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Mortgages backed by the US government with little to no documentation? All of these things sounded like a good idea at the time.

Edited October 17, 2009 by xr7g428

[suv_guy_19]

I'm not saying that government doesn't make mistakes. That doesn't mean that I'm going to start believing every other theory that I hear. I said that I believe in climate change. I didn't say that I necessarily believe in man made climate change. It's a theory that has some scientific basis but isn't yet certain.

[Ralph Greene]

If I get a chance to get the H1N1 shot, I'll take it. It's really no different than the regular flue shot, which I've already had this year. It just goes after some different organizisms than the regular flue shot. Don't know why so many got their panties in a wad over this, or why so many conspiracy theories. Flue shots can save you a lot of sick time if they hit it right. For sure, if I were exposed to large population, or traveled a lot on public transportation, I would get it.

Edited October 17, 2009 by Ralph Greene

[Dale143]

I'm on the other end of the spectrum.Ive never had a flu shot.I'm 50 yrs Sr. and Ive been exercising regularly all my life. I eat a good breakfast every day,a lite lunch and a reasonable dinner.Ive taken a daily vitamin ever since my mother started giving us the chewable cartoon character vitamins and also now a low dose of omega three with a low dose aspirin.I think because of my healthy life style my immune system does a pretty good job at beating off the bug.

Maybe Ive been lucky. or maybe i just do the right thing.

[Ralph Greene]

The people who seem to be dying of the swine flue are mostly very healthy people. People who usually don't get sick much. This is especially true for children. It's the healthy ones who seem to have the most trouble with it....people who have not built up an immunity to it from previous illnesses.

 

BTW....A healthy lifestyle and diet work well to fight off colds....or minimize their effect. Flu is a different animal. Most people who say they had the flu and got over it easily didn't really have the flu, they had a cold.

 

I don't know how many people will be saved by the H1N1 flue shots, but some will be saved, who would probably not survived otherwise. Also there is no reason to fear the shots, or claim not enough research has been done, etc. It's just the same old shot that been given for years, just aimed at the H1N1 virus. Talk to your Doctor, and he will confirm what the TV Docs are saying. Get the shot if you fall into a high risk group.

[Len_A]

The people who seem to be dying of the swine flue are mostly very healthy people. People who usually don't get sick much. This is especially true for children. It's the healthy ones who seem to have the most trouble with it....people who have not built up an immunity to it from previous illnesses.

 

BTW....A healthy lifestyle and diet work well to fight off colds....or minimize their effect. Flu is a different animal. Most people who say they had the flu and got over it easily didn't really have the flu, they had a cold.

 

I don't know how many people will be saved by the H1N1 flue shots, but some will be saved, who would probably not survived otherwise. Also there is no reason to fear the shots, or claim not enough research has been done, etc. It's just the same old shot that been given for years, just aimed at the H1N1 virus. Talk to your Doctor, and he will confirm what the TV Docs are saying. Get the shot if you fall into a high risk group.

The Today Show, this morning, reported that another 11 children dies last week from the H1N1 virus, bring the total to somewhere around 40 to 50 deaths in children from this second outbreak of swine flu. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33345714/ns/he..._and_parenting/