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Redesigning the Industry- The future of the auto industry


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The scary part is that there are people who really believe that SIRI is smarter than them and some form of advanced artificial intelligence..

 

People believing today's technology is more advanced than it is and trusting implicitly something they really don't understand.

 

And this is what the tech companies want us to do, buy into the dream while they cobble something together that looks like

what they are selling, imitations of intelligence that basically are a mixture of active cruise, lane keep and "follow the map".

People who should know better are not informing those that don't because they have bought the illusion of the dream.

Edited by jpd80
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Good video, and he answers the 'how' question: Controlled environment. And that gets back to a point I made earlier, that the biggest hurdle may be integrating non-autonomous vehicles with autonomous vehicles. It may not be possible, and I think it's the reason that the leading concept is to make an autonomous vehicle without any driver controls. And why Ford's idea of an autonomous vehicle with controls is really a non-starter.

 

Here's more to consider:

 

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/28/toyota-ai-autonomy-racing-parts-executives-promoted/

 

Keep in mind Toyota seems to be sticking with their view the hydrogen will be the fuel of the future (IMHO a far bigger long shot that autonomous electric vehicles). So, consider the source.

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Mass transit is a joke...

 

youtube com/watch?v=hcoa7OMAmRk

...It's not going to happen, folks.

&but "Artificial Intelligence" is LIE

( like most marketing-speak/advertising )

that video (which imho skirted the truth) would be closer by calling it "artificial stupidity", throughout

The scary part is that there are people who really believe that SIRI is smarter than them and some form of advanced artificial intelligence..

 

People believing today's technology is more advanced than it is and trusting implicitly something they really don't understand.

 

And this is what the tech companies want us to do, buy into the dream while they cobble something together that looks like

what they are selling, imitations of intelligence that basically are a mixture of active cruise, lane keep and "follow the map".

People who should know better are not informing those that don't because they have bought the illusion of the dream.

well, Jpd

I believe Siri is 'smarter' than a LOT of people ... just not you, me, or most here biggrin.gif

tho I can think of a forum where I'd bet on Siri wink.gif

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The scary part is that there are people who really believe that SIRI is smarter than them and some form of advanced artificial intelligence..

 

People believing today's technology is more advanced than it is and trusting implicitly something they really don't understand.

 

And this is what the tech companies want us to do, buy into the dream while they cobble something together that looks like

what they are selling, imitations of intelligence that basically are a mixture of active cruise, lane keep and "follow the map".

People who should know better are not informing those that don't because they have bought the illusion of the dream.

 

 

 

It took us about 52 years to go from the Wright Flyer to the 707.....

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It took us about 52 years to go from the Wright Flyer to the 707.....

 

The rate at which Americans adopted new technologies has increased exponentially since Flyer I. It's logical to expect fully self driving cars in the early to mid 2020s, perhaps even a little bit earlier. Ford, Daimler, BMW, Hyundai, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Tesla, Volvo Cars, BMW and GM all agree with this. https://www.techemergence.com/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

post-56212-0-67378200-1511929031_thumb.png

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Ah but do we embrace technology before most are actually ready for it or even want it...

 

When the technology will exist to make it all possible is one thing, but I believe many are ready for it and a majority want it, at least what is being promised at this point.

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When the technology will exist to make it all possible is one thing, but I believe many are ready for it and a majority want it, at least what is being promised at this point.

So you're saying that the majority of today's drivers would prefer to be chauffeured by an autonomous vehicle?

 

Or is it more like people who currently don't own a vehicle and don't want to own one in future, wanting the freedom

to call up a ride share and get transport from A to B as needed?

Because I could see it primarily being the latter with some carry over to the former but only in so far as the tech is beneficial

to those people by letting them carry on as if they don't have a license and a vehicle. and that gets to the nexus of the issue,

future vehicle ownership versus everyone going to some form of flexible vehicle ride share...

 

We need to be careful here as to who we think is interested in autonomous tech and why, what do they get . what do they want form it.

Edited by jpd80
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Not to mention governments have no clue how to integrate autonomous tech into current infrastructure

 

They can't even keep the current infrastructure from falling apart...you want them to add sensors/etc to it too?

 

For all the advances in IT in the past 20 years or so I've been working in it...there is still a significant amount of people who have no clue or care to have a clue as to how it works. All they think it is a light switch, when turned on it just works-when the truth is that it takes lots of massaging to make it work properly or to the users expectations.

 

I've found recently that people under 30 need the least amount of hand holding when it comes to IT (at least since we got some younger people where I'm at...I'm in the lower threshold of being 43, with only 5-6 people being under that...avg age is 54 here)

 

But getting back to my point...expecting to completely replace every single car on the road with an automotious car in the next 20 years is pie in the sky thinking. Its going to take another generation or two before people fully trust it and that trust is going to go away once there is one big giant cockup and takes people's lives.

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With ease, thanks to Lear (Mom used to work there way back in the day). Of course they couldn't land or take off by themselves. But a 777 sure can.

 

Bill Lear's coupled autopilot system was used for takeoff, cruise, and landing on a C-54 in 1947. It flew across the Atlantic from Canada to England.

 

image072.jpg

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Bill Lear was amazing, something of the Elon Musk of his day, along with Howard Hughes. That was back when Douglas was in Santa Monica, and Lear was right around the corner from them. But, back to automotive:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/zf-friedrich-chairman/auto-supplier-zf-chairman-resigns-idUSL8N1NZ6FB

Edited by 7Mary3
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Not to mention governments have no clue how to integrate autonomous tech into current infrastructure

 

I pointed out Caltran's current efforts. The DOT is very much on board with all this, and their policies will be disseminated to the state level no question. One hurdle is getting the states to agree to uniform standards, and progress is being made on that front.

 

Just the beginning, a long way to go.

Edited by 7Mary3
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I pointed out Caltran's current efforts. The DOT is very much on board with all this, and their policies will be disseminated to the state level no question. One hurdle is getting the states to agree to uniform standards, and progress is being made on that front.

 

Just the beginning, a long way to go.

You bet there's a long way to go, those cars are puttering around a course at relatively low speed with little or no traffic.

The real test of trust will be putting you kids in there and sending it out into fast moving traffic with all the A-holes and trucks.

Those vehicles have no situational awareness or perception in advance regarding what drivers around them intend to do.

 

Actually, I predict that regular drivers will quicly work out that autonomous vehicles will always brake first to avoid a crash

and use that to barge in and out of lanes as they do now.

Edited by jpd80
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not true, I've seen them on the streets in and around dearborn

I was talking about the the car in the video that was posted earlier.

 

It scares me to imagine that people will soon be willing to put their kids in the back seats of these things...

Edited by jpd80
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And they still don’t allow planes to take-off, fly and land autonomously. That should tell you something.

 

Yes sir. One thing that says is that the technology for autonomous flying and driving already exists. But there is still a long way to go on the government and regulatory side. As 7Mary3 said, some government entities like the transportation departments in California and U.S. federal government are supporting and encouraging autonomous car use.

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I was talking about the the car in the video that was posted earlier.

 

It scares me to imagine that people will soon be willing to put their kids in the back seats of these things...

heck what about the kid walking alone when a bunch of other kids run into the street,

so the car's programming dictates KILL THE FEWEST

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