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Redesigning the Industry- The future of the auto industry


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Its not that...its the companies driving this (for example,Nvidia-they make video cards and want to branch out and want to get into AI) are in segments that are no longer offer large growth potential like they did 10-15 years ago.

 

Google is still pushing it, but I'm assuming they are doing it for data collection and other things.

 

Apple seems have tapped the brakes from the rumors going around about it.

 

The whole thing has a bad smell to it...dealing with Tech for almost 20 years makes me really weary that a fully functional autonomous car is a long time off.

 

Another Uber story-got a rental car yesterday for a business trip- I had to go 5-10 minutes from my house- ran me $10 bucks to get there...once again, how is this supposed to "save" people money? I pay about $850 for a car payment, insurance and gas for my car, so if I used uber-I figure about 30-40 a day to get to and from work- which would be rough $630 a month (work 9/80s). The car will be paid off this October, so I'll only be paying about $250 or so a month for gas/insurance. Not to mention the complete loss of flexibility to go where I want when I want without dumping out a huge amount of money.

 

All of this.

 

Also, Uber isn't supposed to save you money, it's supposed to be like a Keurig machine, in that it appears to be an advance but is in actuality an expensive step sideways.

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Pfffft

 

I buy raw beans and roast them myself.

Years ago, I heard a story about a guy who had a brilliant idea, and patented an at-home coffee roaster. IIRC, he had done all of the development work and was about to bring it to market when he discovered a critical flaw--at the time, raw coffee beans were only sold to commercial roasters...in 100lb bags.

 

Oops.

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You're not very old, are you?

 

3D map data, accurate down to the inch, for all of the US, kept current, is not something that will be available any time soon.

 

I like to think that I'm not very old at age 45, even though my teenage sons probably don't agree. :hysterical:

 

Anyway, the technological advancements in cartography since I was a kid are amazing. My sons think paper maps are ancient. ;) There are a lot of smart people working at Ford, Google, and other companies that will figure out how to make more 3D map data ready to use with autonomous cars soon.

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Anyway, the technological advancements in cartography since I was a kid are amazing. My sons think paper maps are ancient. ;) There are a lot of smart people working at Ford, Google, and other companies that will figure out how to make more 3D map data ready to use with autonomous cars soon.

The technology isn't the issue--it's the underlying data. They can't even keep the road data current, let alone finer-grained details.

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Years ago, I heard a story about a guy who had a brilliant idea, and patented an at-home coffee roaster. IIRC, he had done all of the development work and was about to bring it to market when he discovered a critical flaw--at the time, raw coffee beans were only sold to commercial roasters...in 100lb bags.

 

Oops.

I'm just getting into it so I usually only buy 1lb at a time, but I did just buy a 3lb bag of a Costa Rican my wife and I really like.

 

I use an air popcorn popper and I can roast 4 ounces at a time, which lasts us about 2-3 days. I take a 32 ounce mug of iced to work with me every night.

 

My father in law actually has a roaster and he can do about half a pound at a time. He orders 5 or 10 pounds of raw beans at a time depending on what's available. They drink way more coffee than my wife and I do.

Edited by fuzzymoomoo
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I'm just getting into it so I usually only buy 1lb at a time, but I did just buy a 3lb bag of a Costa Rican my wife and I really like.

 

I use an air popcorn popper and I can roast 4 ounces at a time, which lasts us about 2-3 days. I take a 32 ounce mug of iced to work with me every night.

 

My father in law actually has a roaster and he can do about half a pound at a time. He orders 5 or 10 pounds of raw beans at a time depending on what's available. They drink way more coffee than my wife and I do.

That's more effort that I want to put into my coffee. I have a Cuisinart coffee maker with a built-in burr grinder, so all I have to do is add water and beans; the machine does the rest. I've been alternating between a Costa Rican light roast and a Kauai Coffee Company medium roast that are both pretty good--then again, I was also happy with the Cain's bulk coffee we had at work, so what do I know.

 

I do know that I never cared for most of the stuff they had in the K-cups, although the hot cider in K-cups was OK.

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I like to think that I'm not very old at age 45, even though my teenage sons probably don't agree. :hysterical:

 

Anyway, the technological advancements in cartography since I was a kid are amazing. My sons think paper maps are ancient. ;) There are a lot of smart people working at Ford, Google, and other companies that will figure out how to make more 3D map data ready to use with autonomous cars soon.

 

It's not a question of making the data available.

 

It's a question of keeping the data current.

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It's not a question of making the data available.

 

It's a question of keeping the data current.

 

Good point sir. The technical part is relatively easy. There are lots of techniques today for GIS data management. But to make all this up to date map data work well with autonomous cars, coordination between carmakers and governments that maintain roads and other infrastructure will be critical.

 

Everyone knows about the challenges on the government and regulatory side of things. Me especially, as I work for the federal government. ;) But governments everywhere understand the benefits of autonomous cars for their citizens. So I think Bob Lutz' predictions about autonomous cars being the norm will come true by the time I retire in 20 years.

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Good point sir. The technical part is relatively easy. There are lots of techniques today for GIS data management. But to make all this up to date map data work well with autonomous cars, coordination between carmakers and governments that maintain roads and other infrastructure will be critical.

 

Everyone knows about the challenges on the government and regulatory side of things. Me especially, as I work for the federal government. ;) But governments everywhere understand the benefits of autonomous cars for their citizens. So I think Bob Lutz' predictions about autonomous cars being the norm will come true by the time I retire in 20 years.

 

I don't think governments 'everywhere' understand the benefits, and even if they did, consider this very simple example:

 

A short lane closure put in place by a private contractor in order to install a driveway cutout.

 

This closure may be in place for less than a full day.

 

How will this be tracked?

 

And if the assumption is that the car will 'detect' the temporary traffic control devices, what will be the fine tuning required to correctly identify the control devices under all conceivable circumstances?

 

You see, the problem with machine learning is that you cannot program a machine to recognize edge conditions.

 

Consciousness is so thoroughly different from machine learning in part because we are aware of what we are doing; a computer cannot be made 'aware' of the context in which it is making decisions, and thus there will always be edge conditions that the computer does not recognize, and who will be responsible for what happens when those edge conditions are encountered?

Edited by RichardJensen
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I don't think governments 'everywhere' understand the benefits, and even if they did, consider this very simple example:

 

A short lane closure put in place by a private contractor in order to install a driveway cutout.

 

This closure may be in place for less than a full day.

 

How will this be tracked?

 

And if the assumption is that the car will 'detect' the temporary traffic control devices, what will be the fine tuning required to correctly identify the control devices under all conceivable circumstances?

 

You see, the problem with machine learning is that you cannot program a machine to recognize edge conditions.

 

Consciousness is so thoroughly different from machine learning in part because we are aware of what we are doing; a computer cannot be made 'aware' of the context in which it is making decisions, and thus there will always be edge conditions that the computer does not recognize, and who will be responsible for what happens when those edge conditions are encountered?

 

Um.

 

cyberdyne-networks-inc.png

 

Duh!

Edited by rmc523
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There are 4 or 5 regular posters here who really understand software development, testing and implementation. And we’re telling you this won’t work in the real world.

 

I suspect the software folks who do think it can work are hackers or folks who only write phone apps and have no experience with mission critical software.

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But as I see it, the task is much more than mapping everything once and saying job done,

you then need a way of constantly updating changes to a live map being used by the cars.

and those changes have to be done ahead of time critical changes (lane closures / detours)

and also accurate....that amount of integrated support in a time critical data base like the one

suggested is just not possible, the guarantee of reliability cannot be maintained.

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But as I see it, the task is much more than mapping everything once and saying job done,

you then need a way of constantly updating changes to a live map being used by the cars.

and those changes have to be done ahead of time critical changes (lane closures / detours)

and also accurate....that amount of integrated support in a time critical data base like the one

suggested is just not possible, the guarantee of reliability cannot be maintained.

You can’t possibly have a map that shows all detours and lane closures. They’re not even tracked and reported in most cases. This falls under the AI in the vehicle having to deal with all these scenarios in real time with just sensor inputs.

 

A better example is a cop directing traffic at a school or accident scene.

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You can’t possibly have a map that shows all detours and lane closures. They’re not even tracked and reported in most cases. This falls under the AI in the vehicle having to deal with all these scenarios in real time with just sensor inputs.

 

A better example is a cop directing traffic at a school or accident scene.

Correct, We're agreeing here.....

Now the real problem is exposed away from technology cover ups (Skynet).

 

Edit,

So you're back to cop directing traffic analogy, how do you effectively warn autonomous

vehicles of temporary road changes?

 

The cars sensors cannot always see those situations, so the next step is some form of local electronic marker

In that situation, the local alarm/ warning sensor needs to be placed at every temporary road work / deviation,

that becomes onerous.

 

I'm sure that they will eventually find the way but the answer is certainly not some form of all seeing SKYNET mapping.

Edited by jpd80
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