Redesigning the Industry- The future of the auto industry

[silvrsvt]

http://www.autonews.com/section/industry_redesigned#top

 

 

Should be interesting reading the comments-

 

I was reading through some of these article and I think the big issue here is that they are misreading the customers mindset- cars are status symbols to many people and short of forcing people to give up cars via legislation/insurance...I think they are going to see lots of blow back.

 

It will eventually start switching over...but I think we are at least 20+ years out before that happens. When Gen X starts hitting retirement age maybe.

 

Subscription based cars- All it is an attempt at improving revenue streams-the car will be leased/rented then sold second hand by the automaker dealership. People are keeping cars 10+ years due to reliability/costs- subscriptions will try to disrupt that. Much like the software industry...they want a guaranteed revenue stream. Unless your actually going to save me a significant amount of money (i.e. Adobe Cloud or Office 365 subscriptions vs buying full products), I don't see how its going to work. Most subscriptions are well over the $500 mark...some include insurance, some don't. I can spend $500 a month on a car for 5 years, plus insurance, have it paid off and just worry bout the $150 a month or so for car insurance for another 5 years till I replace it. It doesn't make sense to dump $6K a year to me for a subscription based car.

 

Bob Lutz's article...comes across as a complete blowhard.

[fuzzymoomoo]

I can't take Bob Lutz seriously. He sounds like a bitter old man.

[akirby]

Flying cars!!!!

[silvrsvt]

As many of us have worked around IT for most of lives...development of GPU/CPU's isn't the same as developing/manufacturing cars. The tech industry has survived too long on just making things ever so slightly faster (to the end users/benchmarks) without showing a major improvement in end user experience. Running a 4 year old computer in 2017 is fine for the most part, but doing that in 2003 would be painful. The auto industry doesn't work the same way...you have (or should have) improved styling/options every 3-4 years with a major upgrade every 10 or so.

[akirby]

The technology is changing, but people aren't changing that fast. Car buying and ownership is still an emotional experience for most people and you can't have freeways with autonomous cars driving 120 mph unless you build dedicated roads which won't happen or you convert 80% of drivers and that's not happening any time soon.

 

I see autonomous vehicles replacing uber/lyft/taxis and mass transit but not individual ownership.

 

The people saying this are either in the industry and trying to promote themselves or their businesses or blowhards trying to get clicks or internet fame.

[grbeck]

As the old saying goes, all predictions are dangerous - especially those involving the future.

 

I remember reading about a car-sharing venture that was launched at a suburban Philadelphia college a few years ago. It was supposed to decrease car use and the need to keep a car on campus.

 

What happened was that it ended up INCREASING car use, as students who could afford to keep a car at school continued to do so. Meanwhile, those who couldn't afford a car now had an easy way to access a car whenever they wanted it.

Edited November 6, 2017 by grbeck

[rperez817]

http://www.autonews.com/section/industry_redesigned#top

 

Bob Lutz's article...comes across as a complete blowhard.

 

Thank you sir for sharing this article. On the contrary, this Bob Lutz article is a very good one. He's no blowhard. His predictions are based on what is already happening in the car industry and what governments around the world are already planning. I like Lutz' sense of imagination. Amazing for an 85 year old gentleman.

 

20 years ago when he retired from Chrysler Lutz said "leadership requires the ability to make leaps of the imagination where you see things that other people are not yet imagining" and "The customer is not always right. Customers can only react to product trends. The job of business leaders is to expand the product, innovate, and anticipate the market." This applies to the car industry today and it will apply in 2028 when many of Lutz' predictions may come to fruition.

[jasonj80]

If there is anyone who knows when to get out of a company before it turns to poo it is Bob Lutz. One can wonder with his track record if he is the one that turns it to S***.

[mackinaw]

If there is anyone who knows when to get out of a company before it turns to poo it is Bob Lutz. One can wonder with his track record if he is the one that turns it to S***.

 

So Ford tanked after Lutz left? Lutz left Ford for Chrysler in 1986. Ford made a 3.3 billion dollar in profit in 1986, which was more than what GM made (first time that has happened since 1924). In 1987, Ford made a record profit of 4.6 billion dollars. Not too bad I say.

Edited November 7, 2017 by mackinaw

[silvrsvt]

 

So Ford tanked after Lutz left? Lutz left Ford for Chrysler in 1986. Ford made a 3.3 billion dollar in profit in 1986, which was more than what GM made (first time that has happened since 1924). In 1987, Ford made a record profit of 4.6 billion dollars. Not too bad I say.

 

That was due to the success of the Taurus of the time..which he had zero to do with.

 

What he did have hand in was Ford Europe, which was dysfunctional after he left and was the driver behind the Escort Mk III and Sierra...both which wheren't the best of cars

[jasonj80]

 

So Ford tanked after Lutz left? Lutz left Ford for Chrysler in 1986. Ford made a 3.3 billion dollar in profit in 1986, which was more than what GM made (first time that has happened since 1924). In 1987, Ford made a record profit of 4.6 billion dollars. Not too bad I say.

 

His tenure at ford was 50/50 at best, he did however help with the launch of the Explorer. However his tenure at Chrysler and GM was much worse. He took GM into Halo world where if you just made halo cars people would buy your other cars because its the same thing as buying the halo. He Stuck the Germans with Chrysler that had basically no vehicles in the pipeline, just insane cash flow in the late 90s.

Edited November 7, 2017 by jasonj80

[jpd80]

Slicon valley is trying to convince us that driverless cars are inevitable and that everyone will change in the next 20 years.

I don't subscribe to that point of view , much the same way that I don't believe short term car hire will be as big as it was

being touted a year ago. Many trends come and go depending on what people see as important.

 

I think tech has raced forward much faster than people are ready for, so how about we adopt intelligent cruise and lane keep

on all new vehicles for a start so that drivers get used to vehicles working together, then add inter-vehicle communication

so that vehicles in close proximity are aware of what their human drivers are doing. These are the necessary steps in

building up and environment where driverless cars can effectively operate and nuture acceptance.

 

They are treating automated cars as no better than automated for lifts in a warehouse, I think that's dangerous

and shows that many sensible people are looking straight past a lot of glaring points of error in logic to

rapidly roll out technology that legislators know precious little about. Layers of redundancy do't help

if there's a basic flaw in the initial premise.

Edited November 7, 2017 by jpd80

[SoonerLS]

His tenure at ford was 50/50 at best, he did however help with the launch of the Explorer. However his tenure at Chrysler and GM was much worse. He took GM into Halo world where if you just made halo cars people would buy your other cars because its the same thing as buying the halo. He Stuck the Germans with Chrysler that had basically no vehicles in the pipeline, just insane cash flow in the late 90s.

Wasn't he responsible for the Merkur debacle?

[RichardJensen]

Wasn't he responsible for the Merkur debacle?

 

Yep.

 

Bob Lutz pretty much destroyed FoE by betting the farm on RWD BMW fighters and shortchanging the bread & butter Escort/Fiesta.

 

Then, when the Scorpio & Sierra crashed in Europe, he cooked up this idea to send excess production to the states, and, well....

 

--

 

As far as Lutz taking *ANY* credit for the Explorer:

 

Lutz left Ford in 1986.

 

The Explorer was launched in 1990.

Edited November 7, 2017 by RichardJensen

[7Mary3]

I think the idea of personal transportation without the responsibility of owning a car or even driving it will appeal to a lot of people. Not everyone, of course.

[silvrsvt]

I think the idea of personal transportation without the responsibility of owning a car or even driving it will appeal to a lot of people. Not everyone, of course.

 

I used Uber for work today for the first time since I’m in Washington, D.C. for the next 24 hours. I don’t see how a completely automated car service (Uber with driverless cars) would be economically viable for someone to depend on as their primary mode of transportation to get to and from work. I live in the most densely populated state in the union and live 15 miles from work. I don’t see how it would be affordable for me to do this when a 5-10 mile ride in Uber is $8 bucks a pop.

 

It will work better in cities like NYC or Washington, but you do have the option of walking/mass transit also. It won’t work in suburban areas and I’d assume that you would need even more cars to serve those areas then you have now.

[tbone]

I dont personally know any average person that knows anything about autonomous vehicles. How are people supposed to accept a vehicle type they know nothing about and arent asking for?

[SoonerLS]

FWIW, Waymo (Google, err, Alphabet's autonomous automotive arm) has been running SAE Level 4 vehicles in Arizona since mid-October.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/7/16615290/waymo-self-driving-safety-driver-chandler-autonomous

[rperez817]

I dont personally know any average person that knows anything about autonomous vehicles. How are people supposed to accept a vehicle type they know nothing about and arent asking for?

 

Waymo's efforts as SoonerLS mentioned are helping increase public awareness and acceptance of autonomous car technology. As Lutz mentioned in his article, more than half of people surveyed last year by Deloitte say they don't trust traditional automakers to bring fully autonomous cars to market. They trust Waymo/Google and Apple more. https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-en/deloitte-review/issue-20/winning-consumer-trust-future-of-automotive-technology.html

 

The Deloitte study found that most respondents aren't interested in full self drive yet, but the percentage who are interested increased a little bit from 2014 to 2016. The forward thinking car companies will figure out how to increase public trust in them to develop autonomous cars, I'm sure. Especially with competition from Waymo and other companies outside the car industry.

 

[jasonj80]

I dont personally know any average person that knows anything about autonomous vehicles. How are people supposed to accept a vehicle type they know nothing about and arent asking for?

 

I can say that my friends are and they want them ASAP, though they are also under the age of 40 and much more willing to trust technology. They hate driving and see the automatic car as a way that can stop them from doing it and the sooner it happens the better. The average person is going to be more receptive to driverless cars than an enthusiast that want to drive. I've been in Teslas and Cadillacs and the systems are actually pretty amazing on the freeway in the right conditions. I think it will be 10-15 years before they work well in the city but on a limited access road in the next 5-7 years they will become very common. I can also see in the future getting to the point where freeways will have designated automation lanes.

 

 

[boredinbirmingham]

 

I can say that my friends are and they want them ASAP, though they are also under the age of 40 and much more willing to trust technology. They hate driving and see the automatic car as a way that can stop them from doing it and the sooner it happens the better. The average person is going to be more receptive to driverless cars than an enthusiast that want to drive. I've been in Teslas and Cadillacs and the systems are actually pretty amazing on the freeway in the right conditions. I think it will be 10-15 years before they work well in the city but on a limited access road in the next 5-7 years they will become very common. I can also see in the future getting to the point where freeways will have designated automation lanes.

 

 

Im 40 and I love driving but I dont Love traffic. I think a big benefit to self driving cars will be with things like morning or afternoon commuting. Hopefully, one day soon, self driving cars will get most lanes and driver cars will get one or 2. All you need to do is spend 15 minutes in Atlanta traffic and see how crappy humans drive. I dont think self driving cars will take over 100%, forest service roads, private roads, 4x4 trails will all require a human touch. And on the plus side I dont see road rage being in the best interest of artificial intelligence.

[jasonj80]

Im 40 and I love driving but I dont Love traffic. I think a big benefit to self driving cars will be with things like morning or afternoon commuting. Hopefully, one day soon, self driving cars will get most lanes and driver cars will get one or 2. All you need to do is spend 15 minutes in Atlanta traffic and see how crappy humans drive. I dont think self driving cars will take over 100%, forest service roads, private roads, 4x4 trails will all require a human touch. And on the plus side I dont see road rage being in the best interest of artificial intelligence.

Absolutely, Make sure your next car has Stop & Go cruise control and ADAS. Hopefully the Traffic Jam Assist shows up on the updated MKX. Ford seems to be adding Stop and Go to the adaptive cruise control as vehicles are updated as well, but really hasn't improved the Lane Keeping Assist, even from when it was first launched. New systems form Honda and such keep you centered in the lane even on a turn. Was disappointed the Navigator didn't offer that or the Night Vision system, but guess if gives them the ability to update in the Future. We know that GM will be touting super-cruise in the Escalade when the new one comes out in the next two years, Ford needs to be ready to respond to hold on to gains made in market share, though Ford has stated in the past they are not looking for systems in the Level 3 range of autonomy. They hope to go from 2 to 4.

Edited November 8, 2017 by jasonj80

[tbone]

 

I can say that my friends are and they want them ASAP, though they are also under the age of 40 and much more willing to trust technology. They hate driving and see the automatic car as a way that can stop them from doing it and the sooner it happens the better. The average person is going to be more receptive to driverless cars than an enthusiast that want to drive. I've been in Teslas and Cadillacs and the systems are actually pretty amazing on the freeway in the right conditions. I think it will be 10-15 years before they work well in the city but on a limited access road in the next 5-7 years they will become very common. I can also see in the future getting to the point where freeways will have designated automation lanes.

 

 

I have difficulty wrapping my mind around the fact that people want to abdicate everything to somebody or something else. I am not technology averse. Even though Im an enthusiast, I still see opportunity for a certain level of autonomy as has been mentioned here. I enjoy my adaptive cruise and lane keep system and actually wish it could be enhanced a bit. I could even see usefulness for auto pilot on long trips as well. Its the vehicle without a steering wheel that I cant come to terms with. Even our airplanes have controls and pilots even though auto pilot controls the plane a large amount of the time. I guess you could say I dont like the concept of total loss of control.

[jpd80]

Reading the interview, it becomes clear that Bob now realizes that guys like him are finished in the car industry.

 

He's as clueless as the future direct as he was in the past, he peaked with the 3 Series debut and has tried to

recreate that moment and euphoria only to realize that it can't be done..

 

I see very little change with self drive vehicles in the next 10 years, perhaps more active cruise and lane keep

but a lot of the other automation will be pushed by those with a vested interest in us staying glued to our phones.

 

It's like the people who can't look up from their phones when they walk across the road also want to do that while driving

and they want the rest of us to per mit them to do that with driverless cars...

Edited November 8, 2017 by jpd80

[rmc523]

I have difficulty wrapping my mind around the fact that people want to abdicate everything to somebody or something else. I am not technology averse. Even though Im an enthusiast, I still see opportunity for a certain level of autonomy as has been mentioned here. I enjoy my adaptive cruise and lane keep system and actually wish it could be enhanced a bit. I could even see usefulness for auto pilot on long trips as well. Its the vehicle without a steering wheel that I cant come to terms with. Even our airplanes have controls and pilots even though auto pilot controls the plane a large amount of the time. I guess you could say I dont like the concept of total loss of control.

 

I have to agree. I like the idea of not having to be in control in bumper to bumper traffic, or on long legs of road trips, but I'd want a steering wheel/pedals both for me driving when I want, and for emergency situations or if the car programming has issues.