Ford CTO Raj Nair on the future: Ford will look very different in 10 years

[bzcat]

I'm getting really tired of this notion that discontinuing the Escape hybrid was this massive critical error. It wasn't. They added 4 models on top of it (Fusion hybrid was already a thing) and sales increased because of it.

 

We'll never know if the new generation of Escape hybrid would have outsold C-Max. But my guess is probably yes, because of existing product familiarity. But there was other issue involved, like production sites and capacity.

 

C-Max wasn't a horrible idea but it was executed very poorly. Ford should have marketed it as a CUV rather than a tall hatchback. The new Kia Niro shows you how Ford could have done it with C-Max.

 

The question for me really, is what to do next. It seems that Ford is ready to walk away from the C-Max name but I think that again, will be a mistake. I would definitely produce a new Escape hybrid and Escape Energi as I predict that will become a mainstream selling for that class within the time frame of next generation Escape. The C-Max name should be moved over to the new "Model E" pure EV.

[fuzzymoomoo]

C-Max wasn't a horrible idea but it was executed very poorly. Ford should have marketed it.

yes, I agree.

[jpd80]

yes, I agree.

Ford could have and should have done more with C-Max and an Escape Hybrid.

C-Max should have received Escape's then 1.6 EB / auto trans and Escape should have received C-Max's hybrid tech.

 

The reason Escape Hybrid sales were falling was because that particular technology was old, expensive and the

transmissions sourced from the same supplier as Toyota, Ford was actually restricted in how many it could get..

When Ford moved to GEN 2 hybrid, it picled up a lot of savings using its own transmission and new battery tech.

 

Given the existance of the other Ford hybrids and energi models, a Hybrid Escape wasn't a huge leap of faith

but I do accept that when these decisions were made, Ford's financial position was still precarious and they

ewere probably forced to make much harder decisions than normally the case.

[rmc523]

Ford could have and should have done more with C-Max and an Escape Hybrid.

C-Max should have received Escape's then 1.6 EB / auto trans and Escape should have received C-Max's hybrid tech.

 

The reason Escape Hybrid sales were falling was because that particular technology was old, expensive and the

transmissions sourced from the same supplier as Toyota, Ford was actually restricted in how many it could get..

When Ford moved to GEN 2 hybrid, it picled up a lot of savings using its own transmission and new battery tech.

 

Given the existance of the other Ford hybrids and energi models, a Hybrid Escape wasn't a huge leap of faith

but I do accept that when these decisions were made, Ford's financial position was still precarious and they

ewere probably forced to make much harder decisions than normally the case.

 

Also, remember that C-Max originally was supposed to come here with a gas engine (I think the Grand C-Max was to come too) before they decided to try to make it their Prius by only offering it as a hybrid.

[bzcat]

Also Ford left existing Escape and Mariner hybrid owners no trade in or upgrade path. These people bought a SUV because they wanted one (or otherwise, they would have got a Prius or Fusion or Civic hybrid etc). To then tell these people that maybe they should replace it with a dumpy looking hatchback was a giant leap of faith on the part of Ford.

 

C-Max and Escape hybrid shouldn't have been an either/or proposition. But logically, if you had to choose one, the market dynamics probably pointed towards Escape. We'll never know exactly what data Ford's product planner were looking at when they decided C-Max hybrid was going to be the replacement. One possibility... I recall reading that Ford was planning to export the C-Max hybrid to Europe. Maybe they had a completely different business plan that kind of collapsed when European economy went into a tailspin.

[georgewerr]

That one is for me, I get to build submarines were I work.

[akirby]

To then tell these people that maybe they should replace it with a dumpy looking hatchback was a giant leap of faith on the part of Ford.

 

I don't think that's what they were saying at all. I think they could only do one or the other and they looked at the success of the Prius and thought C-Max would be more successful.

[blazerdude20]

The escape hybrid axe was frustrating because you could actually get it in AWD. It was a nice option for us in the northwest, get good mileage while traveling for work and have added capability for winter months.

 

FWD hybrids don't get to go through the mountain passes here without chains, even in moderate snow.

[jpd80]

 

I don't think that's what they were saying at all. I think they could only do one or the other and they looked at the success of the Prius and thought C-Max would be more successful.

The wheels fell off sales when Ford revised the fuel economy on C-Max

after lots of owners could not easily achieve the official mileage claimed.

 

That did a lot of damage to C-Max's credibility when it was revealed that

Ford just copy paste Fusion's data without actually checking the validity.

[jasonj80]

The wheels fell off sales when Ford revised the fuel economy on C-Max

after lots of owners could not easily achieve the official mileage claimed.

 

That did a lot of damage to C-Max's credibility when it was revealed that

Ford just copy paste Fusion's data without actually checking the validity.

The average joe couldn't care less about that or even knew it happened. CMax sales fell of a cliff when gas got cheap.

[jpd80]

The average joe couldn't care less about that or even knew it happened. CMax sales fell of a cliff when gas got cheap.

The average Joe doesn't buy C-Max but the people who are interested in buying hybrids

took note and went elsewhere...namely, Prius. When you copy a competitor too closely

and then fail to deliver to those bench markes, the result is inevitable.

 

Lower gas prices don't help the situation but the effect on Fusion hybrid and energi sales hasn't been as pronounced.

That would tend to suggest that C-Max is now off most buyer's lists, lower gas prices just makes things worse.

Edited May 20, 2017 by jpd80

[fuzzymoomoo]

The average joe couldn't care less about that or even knew it happened. CMax sales fell of a cliff when gas got cheap.

Actually, it started when the MPG adjustment happened. The week it happened we went from building ~200 a shift to almost nothing and that lasted for almost 3 weeks.

[fuzzymoomoo]

The average Joe doesn't buy C-Max but the people who are interested in buying hybrids

took note and went elsewhere...namely, Prius. When you copy a competitor too closely

and then fail to deliver to those bench markes, the result is inevitable.

 

Lower gas prices don't help the situation but the effect on Fusion hybrid and energi sales hasn't been as pronounced.

That would tend to suggest that C-Max is now off most buyer's lists, lower gas prices just makes things worse.

The C-Max isn't packaged as well as the Prius, and a big part of that was because the powertrain was shoehorned into a platform that wasn't very friendly to a battery pack. That's why the battery takes up damn near half of the rear cargo area. Same problem with the Focus Electric. That's also why Ford has said that all future platforms will be engineered to be electric/hybrid capable.

 

Also go back and look at the options available on the C-Max (particularly the energi) and compare it with the Prius. It's embarrassing. They only just addressed it for MY2017, which also makes no sense but whatever.

[jpd80]

The C-Max isn't packaged as well as the Prius, and a big part of that was because the powertrain was shoehorned into a platform that wasn't very friendly to a battery pack. That's why the battery takes up damn near half of the rear cargo area. Same problem with the Focus Electric. That's also why Ford has said that all future platforms will be engineered to be electric/hybrid capable.

Yeah, the C1 platform didn't have electrification baked in when originally delivered in 2003,

Ford is trying to make a 14 year old design started in the 1990s competitive in the 21st century.

 

Also go back and look at the options available on the C-Max (particularly the energi) and compare it with the Prius. It's embarrassing. They only just addressed it for MY2017, which also makes no sense but whatever.

Transformation of vehicles also has to include transformation of buyer expectations,

Prius is a more premium product where the base C-max tends to be down market

but maybe it's a place holder for something better like Model E?

 

Ford is still learning valuable lessons regarding electrification, I wonder if broader application

of basic hybrid in next gen vehicles is the key here, enough to take fuel consumption off the radar..

Edited May 20, 2017 by jpd80

[rperez817]

Ford will not look very different in 10 years. Guaranteed.

 

Hopefully Ford Motor will still be around in 10 years. The way things are going now, there's no guarantee of that.

[fuzzymoomoo]

 

Hopefully Ford Motor will still be around in 10 years. The way things are going now, there's no guarantee of that.

lolololololololololol

[4d4evr-1]

yes, I agree.

we love ours, it is perfect for this retired couple with grand kids local and we are averaging better than 50 mpg;s since purchase

[jpd80]

Ford will not look very different in 10 years. Guaranteed.

So true, sometimes in accentuating what's changing we miss all that will the same to pay for the novelties..

 

I don't see EVs or autonomous vehicles getting more than token patronage for two reasons...

1) Tesla is the go to for EVs and ...

2) Efficient ICEs and hybriding will be enough for most buyers.

 

Look at GM Bolt, if affordable EVs were wanted by so many, that thing would be flying off the lots.

Until automakers do more than trying to sell gas free efficient bubble cars, nothing changes.

EVs remain simply compliance vehicles for California and the 12 aligned ZEV states.

Edited May 21, 2017 by jpd80

[jasonj80]

To be fair the Bolt is not available nationwide yet. Also once electric cars hit a 300miles / charge in winter (so like 350miles) I will be getting one on the condition it has good style. Most of my friends want to buy an electric car but they either want/need an awd vehicle, need more seating/storage, and need something in the 30k-45k price. I saw the change when our one friend got a Model S, then another got a X. That took the fear away from a lot of them and now they like the not putting fuel in it. I have a feeling as electrics show up in friend groups the same perception change of electric cars will happen.

 

Younger professionals in urban centers that still require cars will be the first adopters that drive the change to electric. These are also your import buyers, so now is the time Ford/Lincoln can attempt to bring them back. I really hope there is a Lincoln Electric version - having that could change the perception of Lincoln more than Matthew McConaughey every would.

[tbone]

 

Hopefully Ford Motor will still be around in 10 years. The way things are going now, there's no guarantee of that.

It's hard to take you seriously when you make statements like this. I would be more concerned about your Jag brand not being around than Ford.

[tbone]

To be fair the Bolt is not available nationwide yet. Also once electric cars hit a 300miles / charge in winter (so like 350miles) I will be getting one on the condition it has good style. Most of my friends want to buy an electric car but they either want/need an awd vehicle, need more seating/storage, and need something in the 30k-45k price. I saw the change when our one friend got a Model S, then another got a X. That took the fear away from a lot of them and now they like the not putting fuel in it. I have a feeling as electrics show up in friend groups the same perception change of electric cars will happen.

 

Younger professionals in urban centers that still require cars will be the first adopters that drive the change to electric. These are also your import buyers, so now is the time Ford/Lincoln can attempt to bring them back. I really hope there is a Lincoln Electric version - having that could change the perception of Lincoln more than Matthew McConaughey every would.

I concur with you that style and range will be what pushes electrics into the mainstream. When most hyvrids/EVs look like turds on wheels, it's harder to get people to take a hard look at them, let alone if it has the range to make it to your destination.

 

Tesla sells nice looking vehicles, though the jury is still out for me on the X, that have real range. That's why they are selling.

[rmc523]

I concur with you that style and range will be what pushes electrics into the mainstream. When most hyvrids/EVs look like turds on wheels, it's harder to get people to take a hard look at them, let alone if it has the range to make it to your destination.

 

Tesla sells nice looking vehicles, though the jury is still out for me on the X, that have real range. That's why they are selling.

I have to agree too. Electric vehicles will become more widespread as the technology increases as well as when they're made stylish. By that I mean 1) extended range and faster charging. And 2) though "greenies (look at me I'm saving the planet with a Prius!!!) like the hideous goofy looking hybrids, most buyers want an attractive - or at least "regular" looking - vehicle, and many of the offerings to this point have been odd looking, or have had limitations with point #1.

 

Over on GMI, I've seen many posters comparing the Bolt and Model 3 saying how so many people on the 3 waiting list will jump ship because the Bolt is available now. I don't understand that viewpoint, as the people on that list 1) want a Tesla, and 2) find the styling attractive. The Bolt is ugly, or at he least, ordinary and boring looking. I wouldn't ever consider a Bolt, but I would consider a Model 3...and much of that has to do with looks.

Edited May 21, 2017 by rmc523

[rperez817]

I would be more concerned about your Jag brand not being around than Ford.

 

Yes sir, I agree. Even though Jaguar and Land Rover are doing well now, there's no guarantee that Jaguar Land Rover Automotive PLC will be in its current corporate form 10 years from now. It could be sold by Tata Motors by then. Maybe it will consolidate with other automakers in Europe. Or disappear completely.

 

There will probably be lots of shakeups in the global auto industry in the next 10 years. It will be fun to watch!

[mackinaw]

.........Also once electric cars hit a 300miles / charge in winter (so like 350miles) .........

 

 

Absolutely. I live in rural, northern Michigan and could give two hoots about anyone claiming 300 miles/charge for an EV. The figures some OEM’s quote are always for Southern California or Florida, not someplace where it actually gets cold. From what I’ve read, batteries can lose up to 40% of their charge in cold weather. Until the battery companies can supply batteries that can give a 300 mile range at zero degrees, not many people up my way will be interested in an EV.

[akirby]

Hopefully Ford Motor will still be around in 10 years. The way things are going now, there's no guarantee of that.

You really don't understand this business thing do you?

Edited May 21, 2017 by akirby