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Lincoln: Global Sales of 300,000 by 2020?


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I was reading an article about Lincoln that included this nugget:

 


Lincoln sold 111,724 vehicles in the U.S. last year, up 10 percent and eighth place among luxury makes, according to the Automotive News Data Center. Executives say Lincoln is on track to reach global sales of 300,000 by 2020.

 

 

That certainly caught my eye (300,000 by 2020), so I thought that, given the U.S. sales total, they must be depending on China to get to their goal. That prompted me to seek out China sales for 2016, and I found this:

 

 

Ford Motor Co.’s Lincoln luxury brand set a sales record in China in 2016, increasing threefold from a year ago. Lincoln sold 32,558 vehicles in the world’s largest auto market last year, compared to 11,630 sold in 2015. By comparison, Lincoln sold 111,724 vehicles in the U.S. last year, good for eighth place among luxury makes, according to the Automotive News Data Center.

 

 

According to goodcarbadcar, Lincoln sold 8,320 units in Canada in 2016. Adding it all up, in 2016 Lincoln sold ~152,602 units globally in 2016. I have a hard time believing they can essentially double sales by 2020, even with China sales growth. Could there be more product line growth in the pipeline to help boost sales growth going forward? Do they really expect to hit 300,000 units by 2020 with the current (limited) product line?

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To get 300K globally, I'd fully expect the return of the Town Car, Versailles, Cosmopolitan, Capri, Premiere, Zephyr, LS, and Blackwood Pickup.

And "of course" a Mark IX coupe/convertible, with companion Continental drop top with suicide doors.

 

Need to offer "variety" ;-)

Edited by 630land
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Lincoln sold over 11,700 vehicles n China in the first quarter, it's on target for +47,000 vehicles there this year

Combine that with increases in North America and Lincoln is already close to 180,000 for 2017

 

IMO, Ford's plan relies on sales in China equaling those in North America, that's huge expansion in a short time.

The limitations are supply of vehicles but also dealer expansion rate has slowed as Lincoln takes a breath this year

and adds what it calls satellite sales offices rather than more dealerships.

 

My best guess on sales expansion would be as folows

 

USA Sales + Canada Sales + China Sales

2014..............94,474 + 6,819 + ?????? (Lincoln launches in China Q4 2014)

2015............101,227 + 7,939 + 11,630

2016............111,724 + 8,320 + 32,559

2017............122,000 + 8,500 + 47,000

2018............133,000 + 8,700 + 72,000

2019............144,000 + 8,900 + 105,000

2020............155,000 + 9,100 + 135,000

Edited by jpd80
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We are talking about net growth of about 120k units in China from now to 2020 to reach roughly 300k globally.

 

Once Ford starts local assembly MKC and MKZ, and most likely a Focus based compact sedan, it should have no problem getting there.

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Precisely.

Lincoln's sales penetration in China is still growing and only governed by its ability to take orders and deliver vehicles.

 

It's funny that Ford's plants in North America may be heavily taxed building enough Lincolns in the next few years

until Lincoln's Chinese production begins..While we're all eagerly looking at Continental and Navigator sales,

the amount of MKC, MKX and MKZ produced and exported to China could make for interesting reading...

 

Edit,

Has there been any whispers form Ford regarding a compact sedan for Lincoln on the NG Focus?

Edited by jpd80
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If we go with the assumption that production in China is a given, what is the most likely approach for Ford to take? New plant or piggy back on existing plants (ala Escape/MKC in Kentucky)?

 

Meanwhile, I was looking around for Lincoln sales in China by model, and came across this (dated March 13 2017) in Fortune:

 

 

 

Ford Motor's (F, +1.53%) luxury unit Lincoln plans to produce luxury SUVs in China by late 2019, as it steps up its move into the world's largest auto market and aims to catch up with German and U.S. rivals who already manufacture in the Asian nation.The plan is to build an all-new sports utility vehicle (SUV) to suit Chinese tastes, Lincoln China said in a statement. Ford plans to use an existing assembly plant it jointly operates with Chongqing Changan Automobile to produce the Lincoln vehicles, a Ford spokesman in Shanghai said. The statement gave no other details about the plans. The Ford spokesman declined to give the model's anticipated production volume or describe the model other than to say it is an SUV.

 

http://fortune.com/2017/03/13/ford-lincoln-suv-china/

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One more tidbit about the Chinese market that I found in Bloomberg; it would appear the CUV craze is hitting there as well. The Lincoln China growth strategy might be more focused on CUV's than we thought:

 

 

 

Chinese consumers are expected to buy more SUVs and minivans than sedans this year for the first time, according to projections from the China Passenger Car Association, as the combination of rising incomes, lower oil prices and policies allowing more children triggers a fundamental shift in the world’s biggest market.

Sales of SUVs surged 45 percent last year in China, outpacing the 15 percent gain for overall passenger vehicle deliveries, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data. Demand for utility vehicles continued to outpace that of the broader market, with sales gaining 22 percent, or more than triple the pace of growth for the industry.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-13/ford-to-start-producing-lincoln-suv-in-china-by-2019-on-demand

Edited by Harley Lover
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Precisely.

Lincoln's sales penetration in China is still growing and only governed by its ability to take orders and deliver vehicles.

 

It's funny that Ford's plants in North America may be heavily taxed building enough Lincolns in the next few years

until Lincoln's Chinese production begins..While we're all eagerly looking at Continental and Navigator sales,

the amount of MKC, MKX and MKZ produced and exported to China could make for interesting reading...

 

Edit,

Has there been any whispers form Ford regarding a compact sedan for Lincoln on the NG Focus?

 

There has been no official mention of Lincoln Focus but I would be stunned if it is not part of the program. Audi A3 is a runaway success and BMW's new FWD 1 series and the next gen Mercedes A-class sedan are going to blow the doors off the entire segment in China.

 

 

If we go with the assumption that production in China is a given, what is the most likely approach for Ford to take? New plant or piggy back on existing plants (ala Escape/MKC in Kentucky)?

 

Meanwhile, I was looking around for Lincoln sales in China by model, and came across this (dated March 13 2017) in Fortune:

 

 

 

 

http://fortune.com/2017/03/13/ford-lincoln-suv-china/

 

Ford and Chang'an are building a new Ford factory in Harbin in the northeast of China. Focus will move there when the new model switch over so there should be plenty of room to add a new model there (i.e. Lincoln sedan).

 

And once Focus leaves Chongqing, it opens up room for MKC to join Escape or MKZ to join Mondeo. Ford may also do something with Nanjing (Fiesta) - for example, shift Fiesta over to Chongqing and convert Nanjing to something else (CD6?)

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I'd think a Focus-sized sedan is a must for China. I wonder if it would be based on the Ford EV/Hybrid car?

 

 

...Edit,

Has there been any whispers form Ford regarding a compact sedan for Lincoln on the NG Focus?

I hope NOT - even tho some might say what happens in China... doesn't count IF it *stays* in China.

imho

a smaller than Z-sized Lincoln has to include 'specialty' aspects.

my choice: BOTH electro and sport series

but skip the ordinary by using the 3/4series-sized *stang architecture instead of Focus...

...something smaller is inappropriate at this time(decade/maybe to 2025)(imho)

 

 

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Any chances of a new Lincoln coupe are the same as all the old names and platforms coming back. Buyers who want to "make a style statement" buy the latest CUV/SUV.

 

Personal Lux coupes are what "grandpa drove in the old days".

Edited by 630land
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That's why I've said that mustang should share CD6 with the MKZ and a Lincoln coupe/convertible - they're the same size platform.

 

There Is NO Platform... per Fomoco

There+is+no+spoon.jpg

&/tho

the 3/4series is shorter than the Stang with a longer wheelbase *and* room for a real backseat

&

personal-luxury(4door)coupes:

280px-Mercedes-Benz_CLS_350_BlueEFFICIEN

u1rl2fyqmxwjzlpeakbi.png

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That's why I've said that mustang should share CD6 with the MKZ and a Lincoln coupe/convertible - they're the same size platform.

 

But at the same time, it seems like the coupe part of the equation loses out to the sedan side. I think your correct that they will share platforms down the road.

 

as for 2B2 comment...I took it as it being a smaller sedan...bigger then the Focus but smaller than the current MKZ, which would be tough to do now.

 

I think a more realistic path forward is the B and C platforms merge together. You could have a LWB C that would provide a Lincoln sedan/CUV, a LWB Escape. The Standard C would be the current Focus and Escape, and the short C would be the Ecosport replacement and Fiesta for North America and China. Not to mention the Model E or other products.

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But at the same time, it seems like the coupe part of the equation loses out to the sedan side. I think your correct that they will share platforms down the road.

 

Without Mustang I doubt we would see a dedicated platform just for a Lincoln coupe and/or ragtop. But Mustang's volume and all the engineering that already goes into making it a convertible could be reused for Lincoln with essentially just a new tophat. It would not be a priority over utilities or sedans but if you want to grow sales and you've already got sedans and utilities covered then it makes sense to me as a niche model to grow the brand.

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