Study: Auto jobs would suffer under gas-mileage standards

[Biker16]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/09/23/center-for-automotive-research-cafe-fuel-economy-standards-study/90902494/

 

The U.S. manufacturing sector will likely suffer job losses if current vehicle fuel-economy requirements for 2025 are left in place, according to a new auto industry study.
The non-partisan Center for Automotive Research concluded that U.S. auto factories and parts operations could slash up to 137,900 jobs through 2025 if the federal government's Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards remain in effect.


The Michigan-based non-profit's study comes amid a debate between the auto industry and Washington policymakers over CAFE standards, which require automaker fleets to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.

Researchers analyzed three price levels for gasoline, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration projections — $2.44, $3 and $4.64. They matched that with three different estimates for the average cost per vehicle required to meet the CAFE mandates — $2,000, $4,000 and $6,000.

 

"If the value of fuel savings to the new-vehicle buyer falls short of the cost of mandated fuel-economy technologies then U.S. automotive sales, production and manufacturing will fall with serious consequences for the U.S. economy," concluded the CAR researchers, Sean McAlinden, Yen Chen, Michael Schultz and David Andrea.​

[silvrsvt]

I'm hoping they are using the real math on this, since a 54.5 average doesn't equal 54.5 MPG out of car...more like 40-45 MPG real world.

[akirby]

I'd like to know where the $2K, $4K and $6K figures come from. I could not find that info scanning the article.

[jpd80]

There's a lot of variables with trying to predict what will happen in the future but it's clear to me that

the heavier vehicles with larger "footprint" (track x wheelbase) have been well provisioned for

and will see a much slower rise in the window sticker bump spot.

 

The current plan for CAFE regulations really aim excessively at small and mid sized vehicles

which are already quite good on fuel economy. Depending on how technology goes, the whole

argument may evaporate if we see a rise in Battery electrics over the next 10 years.

 

The only vehicles needing to meet a corporate average fuel economy figure of 54 mpg (uncorrected)

will be those on the smallest foot prints (Fiesta and Focus, maybe Escape). From there up, the targets

get easier the bigger you go.

Edited September 29, 2016 by jpd80