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North American Automotive Production Forecast till 2025


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Its from last year...some interesting info

 

FORD GROUP
 Production for the Ford Edge (CD539) has been moved ahead to September 2021 from December
2021. The program code for Ford Edge (CD539(ng)) has been updated to CDX706. In addition,
production has been moved ahead to October 2021 from January 2022.
 Current‐generation Ford Escape (C520)’s facelift timing has been moved to March 2016 from June
2015; production will end November 2018. Subsequently, timings for the Ford Escape (C482) have
been adjusted at both Cuautitlán and Louisville Truck with SOP December 2018, a refresh for January
2022, and EOP for August 2024.
 EOP for Ford Explorer (U502) has been moved back to December 2018 from September 2018. This
results in a timing shift for the Ford Explorer (U625 having an SOP in January 2019, a facelift for
January 2022, and an EOP for December 2025).
 Rather than the next‐generation Fiesta, the C484 program will be a Small Car to replace the Fiesta at
Cuautitlán.
 The Ford Flex (D471) and Lincoln MKT (D472) EOPs have been moved out three years from December
2015 to December 2018.
 Program code for the next‐generation Mustang (S550(ng)) has been changed to S650 and the SOP has
been shifted back from January 2022 to May 2020. Subsequently, the EOP for the S550 has been
moved to April 2020.
 The lifecycle for the Ford Taurus (D258) has been extended out beyond our forecast horizon to June
2023 from June 2017.
 EOP for the Lincoln Continental (D544) has been moved from March 2022 to May 2023 and therefore
shifting the next‐generation out of the forecast horizon.
 Added a Large Sedan to the forecast for Lincoln with a program code of CD714, SOP of July 2020,
facelift of Jul‐2023, and EOP of June 2026.
 Lincoln Midsize SUV (U611) SOP shifted from February 2019 to January 2019.
16
 The next‐generation Lincoln MKX SOP was moved out from January 2021 to March 2022. The
program code was also changed from U540(ng) to CDX707. The facelift for the CDX707 was changed
as well from December 2023 to March 2025 and the EOP from December 2026 to February 2028. The
U540 EOP was shifted as a result from December 2020 to February 2022 and the facelift from
November 2017 to May 2018.
 The Lincoln MKZ (CD533) EOP was extended from July 2018 to June 2019. The next‐generation MKZ
(CD622) was moved from the Hermosillo plant to Flat Rock Assembly with an SOP of July 2019 (was
August 2018), facelift of July 2022 (was July 2021), and EOP of June 2026 (was July 2024).

 

 

NA Automotive Production Forecast (June 2015) from UHY LLP.pdf

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Some interesting things:

 

Its quite obvious the Taurus is going to die off now...but was pushed back till 2023?

 

Escape additional production going to Mexico?

 

No Bronco/Ranger mentioned but that might be as simple as an NDA

 

Fiesta getting replaced by a small C car instead B based product.

 

New Mustang in 4 years

 

New Lincoln Large sedan

 

New Explorer and Lincoln mid-sized SUV launch January 2019

 

No info on the next Gen Focus....

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My seat of the pants read on that is that Ford thinks the market is softening.

 

One thing that is interesting is the refresh periods....4 years after introduction, but EOL only 2-3 years after that? Do the new CAFE regs start really to bite in 2025 or something?

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Interesting that MKZ is moving to FRAP from Hermosillo when they are moving Fusion out of FRAP soon.

 

Another 7 years for the Taurus? Surely not the exact same car. Sheesh!

 

Looks like we will have time to decide on our replacement for the Flex since it will be around another 2.5 years. Should be able to see a production version of the next Explorer in time to make our decision. Perfect!

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Interesting that MKZ is moving to FRAP from Hermosillo when they are moving Fusion out of FRAP soon.

 

Another 7 years for the Taurus? Surely not the exact same car. Sheesh!

 

Looks like we will have time to decide on our replacement for the Flex since it will be around another 2.5 years. Should be able to see a production version of the next Explorer in time to make our decision. Perfect!

 

Its been all but known basically since the UAW contract was ratified (unofficially known at least) that FRAP would be getting a second Lincoln model. I think I've even mentioned it here a time or two. Nobody at the plant I talked to believed me when I said it would be the MKZ. FOOLS!!!!! Good news for us/them. Not bad for a plant that was tentatively scheduled to close a few years ago.

 

 

 

FYI, Fusion production at FRAP ended officially Monday morning when the last one rolled off the line. There's still a few stragglers in the plant awaiting final inspection and release.

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Fiesta might be replaced by a B-Segment utility.

 

No mention of Focus, Ranger, etc.

 

Ford's lineup is looking awful old in this report, a little Chrysler-esque with indeterminate futures for many very old and underachieving products.

Edited by BORG
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So, we're all going to sit back and assume everything in this report (done by an outside accounting firm) is true? Really?

 

Those are some pretty darn specific timelines and product codes to be guesses.

 

I believe they're tied in with suppliers.

Edited by akirby
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Fiesta might be replaced by a B-Segment utility.

 

No mention of Focus, Ranger, etc.

 

Ford's lineup is looking awful old in this report, a little Chrysler-esque with indeterminate futures for many very old and underachieving products.

 

Well, not necessarily. Something is replacing Fiesta on the assembly line but not necessarily in the show room.

 

 

 

 Rather than the next‐generation Fiesta, the C484 program will be a Small Car to replace the Fiesta at Cuautitlán.

 

I read this as that Cuautitlan will build both the long and short version of the next C-segment CUV - Escape plus something like Subaru XV or Jeep Compass.

 

Fiesta is probably moving to Thailand.

 

OR

 

C484 "small car" is Focus?

Edited by bzcat
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Taurus staying to 2023, Flex and MKT pushed back three years, maybe next Explorer is just a better D3....

 

If you are referring to the program code, note that the current Explorer did not use D3 code either, instead going with a U code (U502). So I don't think there is any basis to assume the 2019 Explorer (U625) and the Lincoln version (U611) will have anything to do with D3.

 

 

 

EOP for Ford Explorer (U502) has been moved back to December 2018 from September 2018. This results in a timing shift for the Ford Explorer (U625 having an SOP in January 2019, a facelift for January 2022, and an EOP for December 2025).

 

The Ford Flex (D471) and Lincoln MKT (D472) EOPs have been moved out three years from December 2015 to December 2018.

 

Lincoln Midsize SUV (U611) SOP shifted from February 2019 to January 2019

Edited by bzcat
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Lincoln large sedan? Isn't that what Continental was supposed to be?

That's what it looks like it said. Also looks like Continental and Taurus will be "twins" by '23. I figure the Continental will go against the CT6 while the new larger car will go against CT8-9 .

 

I hope in the meantime Taurus will get a MCE with added room.

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Interesting that MKZ is moving to FRAP from Hermosillo when they are moving Fusion out of FRAP soon.

 

Its been all but known basically since the UAW contract was ratified (unofficially known at least) that FRAP would be getting a second Lincoln model. I think I've even mentioned it here a time or two. Nobody at the plant I talked to believed me when I said it would be the MKZ. FOOLS!!!!! Good news for us/them. Not bad for a plant that was tentatively scheduled to close a few years ago.

 

I'm not surprised at all. I suggested this too. It makes sense too if both next-gen MKZ and Continental (and presumably this new large sedan) are to be on CD6....consolidate production at one facility. Not to mention Lincoln quality can be more tightly monitored if it becomes a mostly-Lincoln facility. That also opens the possibility that Fusion is NOT on CD6. Or it simply could be a case of putting all models of one type at one location (all Fusions at Hermosillo, all MKZs at FRAP).

 

Taurus staying to 2023, Flex and MKT pushed back three years, maybe next Explorer is just a better D3....

 

Nah, I just think it's a case where they have the D4 platform around for Explorer, why not continue Flex/MKT until retiring D4?

 

Fiesta might be replaced by a B-Segment utility.

 

No mention of Focus, Ranger, etc.

 

Ford's lineup is looking awful old in this report, a little Chrysler-esque with indeterminate futures for many very old and underachieving products.

 

What's old? Fiesta being replaced, Focus being replaced, Fusion just got a (admittedly minor) refresh, Taurus - I'll give you that one.

 

"EcoSport" coming/new. Escape just got a refresh, and will be redesigned, Edge just redesigned, Explorer to be redesigned, Flex - we've known about that one for some time. Presumed "Bronco" coming. Expedition being replaced.

 

"Ranger" reportedly coming, F-150 and Super Duty just redesigned.

 

MKZ to be replaced, Continental to be replaced, new large sedan

 

MKC to be replaced, MKX just redesigned, Aviator coming, Navigator redesigned, MKT being replaced by Aviator.

 

I'm not sure what you mean aside from Flex, MKT, and Taurus.

 

 

Taurus, Flex, MKT

 

The writing has been on the wall for the latter two for some time, and MKT will be replaced by Aviator.

 

Taurus I agree is puzzling, but if those are the only 3 you can point to, I'm not sure how you can say the Ford lineup is looking old?

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That's what it looks like it said. Also looks like Continental and Taurus will be "twins" by '23. I figure the Continental will go against the CT6 while the new larger car will go against CT8-9 .

 

I hope in the meantime Taurus will get a MCE with added room.

 

A larger sedan above Continental would allow for even more rear legroom and reclining seats (with footrest, which Conti doesn't appear to have).

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