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Ford expects 2015 pretax profit to set record, says '16 may be even better


jpd80

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I gather you’re unfamiliar with investing.

Of course stock price is important, but don’t discount dividends. Ford issues dividends regularly, which comes from their profits. Ford pays me a dividend every three months no matter if their stock price is trading high or low.

 

And believe me, they can add up. Each year I’m amazed how much money I make on dividends.

 

As of right now, without the special $0.25 special dividend, Ford is paying 5% dividend. That's not chump change for a relatively safe stock like F. Any increase in stock prices is a bonus on top of that dividend.

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As of right now, without the special $0.25 special dividend, Ford is paying 5% dividend. That's not chump change for a relatively safe stock like F. Any increase in stock prices is a bonus on top of that dividend.

 

Not to mention, your effective dividend yield is the dollar cost average of your share purchases; which means if you bought a big pile in the 2005-2010 time period, your effective dividend yield is a lot higher than 5%.

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Not to mention, your effective dividend yield is the dollar cost average of your share purchases; which means if you bought a big pile in the 2005-2010 time period, your effective dividend yield is a lot higher than 5%.

 

Good point. Checking my statement today (I bought a few more shares of F while it was down), my average cost is around $6/share. That means I'm earning about 10% on my F stock, regardless of stock price. In that regard, Ford maintaining profitability and continuing to fork over that dividend is much more important than what speculators cause the stock price to do.

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Good point. Checking my statement today (I bought a few more shares of F while it was down), my average cost is around $6/share. That means I'm earning about 10% on my F stock, regardless of stock price. In that regard, Ford maintaining profitability and continuing to fork over that dividend is much more important than what speculators cause the stock price to do.

 

I commend you on your short to medium term investment acumen , but lets look at a longer view. If you had bought 3000 Ford shares at the turn of the last century it would have cost around $100000. Today those shares would be worth $33333. Your dividend income would be $1800. Between the middle of 2006 and the start

of 2012 Ford stock paid zero dividends. The same investment in GM or Chrysler would have netted you a zero balance.

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I commend you on your short to medium term investment acumen , but lets look at a longer view. If you had bought 3000 Ford shares at the turn of the last century it would have cost around $100000. Today those shares would be worth $33333. Your dividend income would be $1800. Between the middle of 2006 and the start

of 2012 Ford stock paid zero dividends. The same investment in GM or Chrysler would have netted you a zero balance.

 

I didn't buy them at the turn of the century. I'm well ahead of what I have invested as my average cost for F stock is just around $6.

 

Where would I have been with those GM shares that I bought around the turn of the century? Didn't GM go bankrupt and all their shares became worthless? That 100k would be worth 0 right now had I invested it all in GM. I'm not sure what happened with the Chrysler shares, so I can't comment on those.

 

Are there better stocks than Ford? Sure there are, but I don't have the time to research every stock out there. I pick a few that I feel I am comfortable with and that pay decent dividends, do some research, watch them, and decide if/when to buy/sell. You win some, you lose some, but all-in-all, since I started buying my own stocks, F has outperformed all of the others as far as price. F is a bit behind others in % dividends received, though.

 

Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and if I could tell the future in the stock market, I would be on an island somewhere, sipping Margarita's, not having this discussion.

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After seeing "The Big Short", I wonder how many serious players use short selling to still make money when stocks are falling.

I have a hunch that a lot of profit taking like this goes unseen when many analysts go to work dissecting company performance

versus stock price.... it all seems like such a big game played on confidence and bluff...

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I didn't buy them at the turn of the century. I'm well ahead of what I have invested as my average cost for F stock is just around $6.

 

Where would I have been with those GM shares that I bought around the turn of the century? Didn't GM go bankrupt and all their shares became worthless? That 100k would be worth 0 right now had I invested it all in GM. I'm not sure what happened with the Chrysler shares, so I can't comment on those.

 

Are there better stocks than Ford? Sure there are, but I don't have the time to research every stock out there. I pick a few that I feel I am comfortable with and that pay decent dividends, do some research, watch them, and decide if/when to buy/sell. You win some, you lose some, but all-in-all, since I started buying my own stocks, F has outperformed all of the others as far as price. F is a bit behind others in % dividends received, though.

 

Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and if I could tell the future in the stock market, I would be on an island somewhere, sipping Margarita's, not having this discussion.

 

I started accumulating F in 1977 as part of my pay package.For every $10 dollars invested, Ford gave you $6.00 in shares . I still own a bunch. I also received Citi, Hertz and Visteon from the spinoffs. I sold them. I am looking at snow out my home office window,so no island for me either. Being retired,I can and do spend a lot of time with investments.....I just looked at the snow again.

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I started accumulating F in 1977 as part of my pay package.For every $10 dollars invested, Ford gave you $6.00 in shares . I still own a bunch. I also received Citi, Hertz and Visteon from the spinoffs. I sold them. I am looking at snow out my home office window,so no island for me either. Being retired,I can and do spend a lot of time with investments.....I just looked at the snow again.

 

I happen to like snow, we just don't get enough here. :)

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So I take it that ford had a big fourth quarter, especially in North America where

F150 inventory and supply to dealers finally got back to normal levels.

 

You get the feeling that a lot of the added profit comes from those increased F Series sales,

and If Ford can get a big roll on with F Series and push for 900K sales then the fortunes of

less performing product will matter less until it gets those products changed out in 2018.

 

Maximizing Fusion, Escape and Explorer sales is probably going to come down to building out

inventory well before Spring and then trading on it all the way through Summer. We can see that

happening with Jan 1 inventory levels:

 

Fusion 60,900

Escape 69,800

Explorer 34,100

Edge 31,200

Mustang 33,700

Transit 32,900

T/C 18,000

 

Focus 53,200 (135 days) incentives in Q1?

Fiesta 18,500 (146 days) incentives in Q1?

Edited by jpd80
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I don't think I could eve get used to living in places where it snows, too many years

of soft living in warmer climates where the only ice seen is in drinks by the pool.

with the continued effects if climate change it appears that predicting snow on past results will be less accurate...

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with the continued effects if climate change it appears that predicting snow on past results will be less accurate...

The weather patterns in Northern and Southern hemispheres seem to be coming more extreme

as moderate weather patterns are replaced by either unexpected droughts followed by severe storms.

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