ANTAUS Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/15/truck-wars-is-ford-motor-company-really-beating-ou.aspx Thought I'd share, there's quite a bit of facts and details on this that is helpful for conversation... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 (edited) Look at the graph below and its clear that the refresh Ford did in 2010 allowed sales to keep increasing on the same trajectory. Now compare that to GM with a very minor update to Silverado and Sierra and the divergence begins in 2011 with the rate running parallel again after 2012 but the damage was done and sales gap is now 100,000, not 30,000 or so of the past. Silverado and Sierra are strategically important products, I can't believe GM let them drift for so long... FYI Ram Truck sales for 2013 was 355,673 - about 300,000 less than GM.... Edited February 16, 2014 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Interesting, but there are a couple of factors the article leaves out. First, Ford lumps medium duty commercial truck and stripped chassis production into F Series totals. Granted these numbers are modest expect for a fair number of F-550 sales, but GM has been all but out of commercial sales for the past 5 years (2009, and note the graph). Second, the article expects Ford's ATP to rise with the next generation F-150. I think that is all but certain, but I think it is equally likely that the margin on the F-150 will be significantly lower than the current model. That could give G.M. an incentive to more aggressively price the Silverado/Sierra, which could increase their sales. I expect sales of the Super Duty line to start to fall in the face of increased competition from G.M. and Ram. The current Super Duty has world class diesel option, but beyond that it is becoming quite dated. GM will have significantly updated drivetrains in their HD's in 2017, and the Ram HD is extremely competitive now. Ram has also been able to maintain their sales lead in class 4 and 5 over Ford, and their new heavy duty 6.4L Hemi gas option compares favorably with Ford's V-10. Let's hope the rumored all-new (this time for a change) Super Duty does debut within the next 4 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 (edited) Ford's Joe Hinrichs is on record as saying the price of aluminum has been taken out tof the equation by redesigning the parts and manufacture process to make them actually less costly than the ones they replace.... Hmmm, doesn't sound like a hit on profit to me. Also total production of Class 4,5,6,7 and 8 last year amounted to 80,000 trucks. And if you subtract the stripped chassis production, 14,572..... So even deducting those means F150, F250 and F350 amounted to about 645,000 Trucks. Edited February 16, 2014 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edstock Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Here's GM's rationalization: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140215/AUTO03/302150021/0/auto01/Q-Auto-General-s-pickup-guru-Truck-War-strategy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papilgee4evaeva Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ford's Joe Hinrichs is on record as saying the price of aluminum has been taken out tof the equation by redesigning the parts and manufacture process to make them actually less costly than the ones they replace.... Hmmm, doesn't sound like a hit on profit to me. Also total production of Class 4,5,6,7 and 8 last year amounted to 80,000 trucks. And if you subtract the stripped chassis production, 14,572..... So even deducting those means F150, F250 and F350 amounted to about 645,000 Trucks. Careful, you're presenting facts again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Rosadini Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 My two cents: -F series lead over the "all new" GM's surprised me for sure. If I read anything into that, it's that the "new trucks" are less impressive to people than the improving reputation of Ford's power trains-in particular the Ecoboost and the Scorpion's ability to shake off the stigma of the 6.0/6.4 issues. -With 7g on the table, the numbers for the next month or so will be very telling. If GM can't close the gap-make that PASS Ford, with these huge incentives, IMO they really do have a problem. -Only problem I see for Ford will involve the true commercial/experienced buyers reaction to aluminum. The yuppie market will not think twice about it. Those true truck buyers -at least some of them-will have a "prove it to me" attitude". I spent 44 years in an industry where every pound of truck was one less pound of payload. I remember we had an old fleet maintenance chief who was found of saying.."aluminum is only good for tea kettles". And we had some horrible aluminum component experiment failures. Granted I'm talking about class 8's but the stigma may remain with some regardless of class. But no doubt, the metalurgy has changed, the military experience has proven that, and time will tell. I have to believe Ford did not bet the farm on a hunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Expect Ford to hammer home the aerospace & military credentials of its aluminum alloy in marketing--and that they put millions of miles of real world tests on aluminum bodied F150 prototypes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Contractors/fleet buyers will also have the option (for now) of buying steel-bodied F-250/F-350's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 (edited) So strange to read the critics asserting that Ford is taking a huge gamble on an alloy body for F150 and then in the same breath, dismiss this advantage as simply leading a change that all other manufacturers will do in the coming years... One of the biggest determiners of future profitability will be having a fuel efficient half ton truck, it's critical to CAFE that significant gains are made across the board not just add on models to make the range look better. On a brighter note, I can see class 6 and 7 possibly becoming more popular with a move back to the USA. this could work well for Ford... Edited February 16, 2014 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ford already gave the aluminum body panels to contractors and told them to beat the hell out of them (without telling them what it was). Passed with flying colors. This is NOT beer can stuff... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Like I said, Ford's class 4 through 7 sales are modest, but Ford does include them. And, at the same time GM's sales in those weight classes are nonexistent at present. I'll take Hinrichs' comments at face value, but the last time I checked steel was @ $.66/lbs. and aluminum was $2.20/lbs.. The price of aluminum is potentially more volatile than steel as well. Regarding GM's 'all new' Silverado and Sierra- there are not really. What are new is the engines (1500's only), interiors, and most sheetmetal. Transmissions and chassis are carryover. However, I expect the K2XX series will be rather short lived. These trucks were under development during GM's bankruptcy, and it appears they were done 'on the cheap'. I am rather surprised they are as good as they are. Work actually started on the replacements early last year could hit the market as early as 2018. If the rumors are true about GM's return to medium duty, they should be overall much more competitive within 5 years. Of course, I don't expect Ford to stand still....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It really is time to stop using GM's bankruptcy as an excuse for the current GM trucks. GM emerged from bankruptcy a full four years before those trucks were launched, positively dripping with cash to spend on R&D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blwnsmoke Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 (edited) duplicate Edited February 17, 2014 by blwnsmoke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blwnsmoke Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Interesting, but there are a couple of factors the article leaves out. First, Ford lumps medium duty commercial truck and stripped chassis production into F Series totals. Granted these numbers are modest expect for a fair number of F-550 sales, but GM has been all but out of commercial sales for the past 5 years (2009, and note the graph). Second, the article expects Ford's ATP to rise with the next generation F-150. I think that is all but certain, but I think it is equally likely that the margin on the F-150 will be significantly lower than the current model. That could give G.M. an incentive to more aggressively price the Silverado/Sierra, which could increase their sales. I expect sales of the Super Duty line to start to fall in the face of increased competition from G.M. and Ram. The current Super Duty has world class diesel option, but beyond that it is becoming quite dated. GM will have significantly updated drivetrains in their HD's in 2017, and the Ram HD is extremely competitive now. Ram has also been able to maintain their sales lead in class 4 and 5 over Ford, and their new heavy duty 6.4L Hemi gas option compares favorably with Ford's V-10. Let's hope the rumored all-new (this time for a change) Super Duty does debut within the next 4 years. With the upgraded turbo, injectors, fuel pump, power/torque and better jake brake, Ford will continue to do just fine in the Superduty. They are already testing LED lights like the F150 as well as HID that will either be Job 2 or Job 3 of the 2015 model year. They will also have an "all new" Superduty that is slated for 2016 as a 2017MY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blwnsmoke Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 -With 7g on the table, the numbers for the next month or so will be very telling. If GM can't close the gap-make that PASS Ford, with these huge incentives, IMO they really do have a problem. With 7g on the table, they already have a problem on a redesign. Ford has what, $2,000 rebate + $1,000 Ford Financing and they are beating GM.. For them to go more then double to try and move trucks.. It's just comical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 .......... These trucks were under development during GM's bankruptcy, and it appears they were done 'on the cheap'........... They weren't done on the cheap. GM spent 4 billion dollars to develop these new trucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RangerM Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 They weren't done on the cheap. GM spent 4 billion dollars to develop these new trucks. --facepalm-- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mustang let back Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 They weren't done on the cheap. GM spent 4 billion dollars to develop these new trucks. if they spent 4 billion on the junk they just came out with,it will be Government Motors part 2 coming to america real soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark B. Morrow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I went to the Pittsburgh Auto Show yearerday and there was a '15 F 150 on display. For some reason, someone opened the railing around the truck and a few of us were allowed in to get a close up look. The truck is fantastic, especially the interior. Too bad they wouldn't do the same with the '15 Mustang. There was also a 12 pass Transit 350, commercial and passenger versions of the Transit Connect and a locked Lincoln MKC on the floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twmalonehunter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I went to the Pittsburgh Auto Show yearerday and there was a '15 F 150 on display. For some reason, someone opened the railing around the truck and a few of us were allowed in to get a close up look. The truck is fantastic, especially the interior. Too bad they wouldn't do the same with the '15 Mustang. There was also a 12 pass Transit 350, commercial and passenger versions of the Transit Connect and a locked Lincoln MKC on the floor. I was there Saturday night and I was very disappointed that the Transit was locked and that the only version was the wagon. I would think they would be willing to have unlocked versions of a vehicle that is this close to release. The Mustang I get. Also checked out the Dodge ProMaster and while it is a nice package, the interior is cheap and the front end is hideous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 (edited) I'll take Hinrichs' comments at face value, but the last time I checked steel was @ $.66/lbs. and aluminum was $2.20/lbs.. No argument that Aluminum cost is around $1,000 extra over steel but Hinrichs was alluding to cost savings in the constructional side making up the difference. I think this is the concept critics are struggling with, new assembly processes are making the change possible. Just for comparison, GM has just spent a similar amount going to HT steel body and various upgrades missed at the F150 2010 upgrade, Ford has now effectively skipped the step GM has just done and gone straight to Aluminum, I doubt GM has the resources to double spend in such a short time frame, so Ford will lead for about four years or so... Edited February 17, 2014 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Rosadini Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As for aluminum pricing, I recognize the grade Ford is using is not "beer can spec" but I have read recently that there is a worldwide GLUT of aluminum. Plus isn't the aircraft industry making increased use of carbon fiber? Seems like that would have a stabilizing price on aluminum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSFan00 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 When the frame itself is made of aluminum/magnesium/carbon/titanium alloy etc. it will really get interesting. I am guessing that is off toward the 2025 era though...cars just aren't made like airplanes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edstock Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 When the frame itself is made of aluminum/magnesium/carbon/titanium alloy etc. it will really get interesting. I am guessing that is off toward the 2025 era though...cars just aren't made like airplanes. Yes indeed. The advent of nano-technology, of working with 'precision' arrangement of molecules at the molecular-scale in amorphous structures (similar to glass) will be bringing surprises, as "alloys" are going to become very different from what we have today, over the next 20 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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