A First: Chinese Automakert To Display In Detroit

[robertlane]

http://www.blueovalnews.com/index.php?cate...p2_articleid=49

 

Here they come. . .

Edited December 15, 2005 by robertlane

[NickF1011]

I sure hope it's better than this heap:

 

http://paultan.org/archives/2005/10/07/jia...assenger-cabin/

 

Actually, no I don't. Then we wouldn't have much to worry about.

[01FOCI]

I'm going to call the first person who buys one of those things a communist...

[robertlane]

Well, nobody can call them a red or a pinko. . .THAT wouldn't be politically correct.

 

Why would you call them communists? According to the State Dept., China is becoming more and more democractic and open to free trade every day. :rolleyes:

[NickF1011]

Why would you call them communists? According to the State Dept., China is becoming more and more democractic and open to free trade every day. :rolleyes:

 

Or just ask any of the 8000+ people they have executed this year. Oops. I mean.... :blink:

[DRODMOTORS]

The Chinese automakers are only two years away from NA sales penetration...

[RichardJensen]

The Chinese automakers are only two years away from NA sales penetration...

snort

 

Just because this is the most competitive market in the world doesn't mean that anyone gets a shot at success. On the contrary, it means that you have to bring a LOT to the table.

 

From what I've seen, these Chinese cars promise little more than certain death in crashes and low low prices.

 

...

[retro-man]

snort

 

Just because this is the most competitive market in the world doesn't mean that anyone gets a shot at success. On the contrary, it means that you have to bring a LOT to the table.

 

From what I've seen, these Chinese cars promise little more than certain death in crashes and low low prices.

 

...

 

I'm old enough to remember people snorting about the Japanese. And old enough to remember when there was reason to. Recent years have seen China become competitive at many things: computer components, building materials, electronics (they're even penetrating the high end audiophile market of tube gear and exotic CD players - which has been the last small-scale refuge of American "consumer" electronics - in a significant way), and of course, lately, space flight. Personally I have zero (zip, zilch, nada) doubt that China will successfully follow Japan and Korea into the mainstream global auto market. And probably sooner than a lot of people think.

 

I remain flabbergasted by the American public's blind adherance to the reigning globalist orthodoxy, and the attendant inability or unwillingness to discuss the implications of wage differential, environmental and labor laws, etc. I am willing to allow that the long-term global effect may be ..... maaay be.. positive. I have my doubts. But there is no doubt that the near and medium term economic and social dislocation - the Latinization of our economy and society that is well underway (see last year's census report) - is going to be excruciating at home for a lot of people. The fact that we are willing to tolerate so many shattered dreams and destroyed lives in the pursuit of some presumed larger future good tells me one of two things: Either we are not the individual-oriented society that we are taught to believe - since we see that all these individuals and their aspirations are dispensable, or ... the people who have the power to effect change don't give a rip about those who have to live with the results. I tend to think the latter.

 

 

[2b2]

quote name='robertlane' date='Dec 15 2005, 08:56 AM' post='5482'

http://www.blueovalnews.com/index.php?cate...p2_articleid=49

 

Here they come. . ./quote

going down the street. . .

get the funniest looks from. . .

everyone they meet. . .

 

 

 

99.9% of the populution may go along with it,

but what if the 00.1% turns into vigilantes?

[RichardJensen]

I'm old enough to remember people snorting about the Japanese. And old enough to remember when there was reason to.

 

Right. It was a much softer market. Not that I remember first hand; but if the U.S. auto market would have been, in the late 60s, as competitive as--say--the Japanese car market is, the Japanese makes would never have had a chance.

 

With today's car market, in the U.S. margin for error is slim to non-existent.

 

Manhattan's theatre district is full of theatres. But does that mean that just anyone can get a part in a play or a musical? No. Does it mean it's easier to get a part in a play on Broadway than it is in your East Overshoe, South Dakota community theatre group, because there are more plays being cast on Broadway? No. That's the U.S. car market.

 

Car buyers in this country are a pampered lot, relatively speaking. If brand X doesn't have exactly what they want, brand Y does.

 

In such a market, where virtually every need is being met by one or more very competitive products, I just don't see a gap big enough for a Chinese company to slip into edgewise. Not unless their importer wants to spend years taking a bath.

 

About all I can say, is if China's national automakers want to "play" in the U.S., they need to be prepared to bleed for years before they even get a toehold, and they may not even get that. I will say that no private investor will be willing to put up with the barrels of red ink and financial setbacks that selling a questionable product in a fiercely competitive market will entail (and these guys seem to be a thoroughly shifty lot--like this last guy: Emerito Estrada Rivera (head of the eponymous EER Isuzu something-or-another; a company which, judging by the looks of the name, is responsible for importing Isuzus into Puerto Rico--a task somewhat similar, I would assume, to selling Barbara Streisand albums at a monster truck rally)

 

...

Edited December 16, 2005 by RichardJensen

[retro-man]

Right. It was a much softer market. Not that I remember first hand; but if the U.S. auto market would have been, in the late 60s, as competitive as--say--the Japanese car market is, the Japanese makes would never have had a chance.

 

...

 

Rather than the late '60's, I see China's position in the next year or two being what Japan's was in the late '50's. The first car they imported here - the Toyopet Crown - circa 1957, was a complete disaster (like that Landwind whatever - and like the 1986 Hyundai Excel). The U.S. auto market was plenty competitive in the 60's. Manufacturers would mail out brochures to every house in Sept.,which was when next years models almost always came out, dealers would give away promotional toys. The big three were expanding their model lines at a rapid pace - adding in intermediates and compacts (starting in Ford's case, with the Falcon, then the Fairline becoming mid-sized below the Galaxie's full-size slot), and soon enough the pony cars. All without much Foreign penetration. The market was competitive enough to see the end of Hudson, Packard, and Studebaker within a period of 10 years. Volkswagen was doing pretty well, and Mercedes was not unheard of, and the British makers (Hillman, Ford Cortina, MG, Triumph, Jaguar) had a certain small share.

 

Against that backdrop, the early Toyotas and Datsuns were light years behind the American state of the art. But they had one advantage that kept them going: cost. That and economy of operation. They appealed to skinflints. That's exactly what's going to give China a foothold. Attention K-Mart Shoppers: Blue Light Special! They don't have to take a bath - they can stay dirty - or rather dirt-poor - long enough to learn the market, and establish a beach-head. The importers will do fine. Malcolm Bricklin's going to be able to sell Cheries at a 100% mark-up and still undercut Toyota and Honda by 30%. The Japanese can't compete with China on cost, environmental laxity, disregard for worker safety - and neither will the Koreans be able to. This is a country with an average per capita income of $1,290.00, ranking 105th in a field of 180 nations, well behind such economic powerhouses as Morocco, Swaziland, and Albania, and that tolerates losing a medium sized city's worth of people each year in industrial and mining accidents. Combine that with willing investors (that upper 5% on the bar chart) and technical input from the West, and I think the results are predictable enough.

Edited December 16, 2005 by niteflight

[NickF1011]

I will say that no private investor will be willing to put up with the barrels of red ink and financial setbacks that selling a questionable product in a fiercely competitive market will entail ...

 

Except Malcolm Bricklin. :lol:

[Hemiman]

To get an idea of where this is going, we can look at motorcycles. 5 yrs ago China hit our shores with some small scooters, minibikes, & pit bikes. Within 3 years they had that market flooded with copies of Hondas, and Yamahas. Next they moved up in size & are offering bikes in the 200-500cc range. Again, copies of Hondas & Yamahas. Initial quality in all cases was horrible. But they corrected these issues in an incredibly short time, and the quality now approaches that of the bikes they're cloned from. In another two yrs you'll see a serious road bikes in the 600+ cc class from China.

 

Now this has, and will continue to have a huge impact on the entry level dirt bike market once dominated by the Japanese makers. Soon it will impact the raod bike market as well.

 

It's had zero effect on Harley Davison.

 

Question: Do Ford, GM, & DCX have the same type of following and loyalty that Harley enjoys? (Ford enjoys this with the Mustang and F-Series, GM has it with the Vette, DCX has it with the Wrangler) not to the dgree that Harley has but, still pretty good.

 

Lets hope Ford can get some other inspired designs (Like the Mustang) out there.

 

What can Ford do to foster this with the rest of the line up? Can Ford become the Harley Davidson of Cars?

Edited December 17, 2005 by Hemiman

[NickF1011]

What can Ford do to foster this with the rest of the line up? Can Ford become the Harley Davidson of Cars?

 

Well, most of them already leak oil like Harleys. :lol:

[RichardJensen]

The U.S. auto market was plenty competitive in the 60's.

The various domestic makes were competitive with each other, but they were not adequately meeting consumer demands.

 

Now there may be a market for a brand new $10,000 car from China; and Bricklin (and this EER guy) may be able to write a 100% markup on it, but how many dealers are they going to get, and what are they going to pay them, etc?

 

Hyundai, I believe, underwrote their own push into this market (which has taken about 10-15 years to produce results). Malcom Bricklin underwrote Yugo. Both had absolutely abysmal quality to begin with. Malcom bailed, Hyundai stuck it out.

 

If a Chinese company wants to establish their own importer, they've got a shot. If, however, they insist on people that are usually only a step or two ahead of their creditors, they're screwed.

 

Also, while the dirt bike/small motorcycle market analogy is instructive, I think it also misses the fundamental difference between why people buy cars vs. dirt bikes. As well as what people expect.

 

I mean, if these Cheries show up and their quality is abysmal and warranty support is abysmal, then they're over and done with. Daewoo is a perfect example. It will be years and years before that name is good for anything here.

 

Re: China's environmental and labor conditions--that's a powder keg that will explode.

 

...

[NickF1011]

I mean, if these Cheries show up and their quality is abysmal and warranty support is abysmal, then they're over and done with. Daewoo is a perfect example. It will be years and years before that name is good for anything here.

...

 

Maybe we'll see Cherys rebadged as Chevys just like the Daewoos now. Heck, Chery is already ripping off other automakers' designs anyway. May as well go the whole 9 yards and add someone else's badge to them too! :D

[retro-man]

The various domestic makes were competitive with each other, but they were not adequately meeting consumer demands.

...

 

That's not the way I remember it at all. As I remember it, there was no disconnect between consumer demands and Detroit until the Arab oil embargo - aggravated in short order by burgeoning emmisions and safety regulations. Curiously, the imports never seemed half as vexed as Detroit when it came to handling the emissions and safety mandated regs.

 

As I recall the 60's, the U.S. auto market was largely self-satisfied, and the domestics were turning out highly desirable products. Imports, particularly Japanese imports, weren't even on most peoples' radar screens. For the vast majority of car buyers, it was a question of GTO or Mustang, Malibu or Fairlane, Impala or Galaxie, Riviera or T-Bird, DeVille or Continental.....

 

Looking back, I can also see that there was still in the atmosphere some residual resentment against the Japanese from WWII, particularly in the early 60's. The war itself was only 20 years prior, and the public had scarcely finished digesting it through John Wayne movies the decade before. It's hard to remember what a different time it really was.

 

Whenever something broke, people would commonly blurt out the words "Made in Japan". That phrase could most often be seen on the bottom of cheap tin windup toys that crapped out after 8 or 10 goes. The first imported Toyopet Crown had semaphore turn signals. If you stomped too hard on the brakes, the hydraulic lines were known to blow out occasionally. If you were foolish enough to try 60mph, the valves would float, and the heads would pop off.

 

Japan did not have an easy time entering the U.S. market in the 60's, but they got good at it. Then the 70's came along and Detroit handed it to them on a silver platter.........

 

If anything, the Chinese will benefit from the pioneering efforts of Japan (and later Korea) in establishing a quality reputation and wiping away old prejudices, and from the general tendency of Americans to confuse differences between the three countries.

Edited December 17, 2005 by niteflight

[Bluecon]

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic.../512170312/1148

[68Cougar]

Japan did not have an easy time entering the U.S. market in the 60's, but they got good at it. Then the 70's came along and Detroit handed it to them on a silver platter.........

 

If anything, the Chinese will benefit from the pioneering efforts of Japan (and later Korea) in establishing a quality reputation and wiping away old prejudices, and from the general tendency of Americans to confuse differences between the three countries.

 

Your post is the best in this thread.

 

I remember all the jokes about Japanese cars in the early 70's. "Your Jap car broke Dat-Soon?"

 

The US automakers always took the American consumer for granted. When they finally got real competition, they have had their asses handed to them over and over again. They refused to make small cars, the Japanese were able to fill that market. Once the Japanese got their quality up (thanks to an American, that the US automakers ignored) they were entrenced into the market place. If they hadn't, they too would be gone like most British cars, and Fiats, etc.

 

There is a market here for the Chinese to appeal to, and it again is cheap cars. The Japanese have left that market (except with certified used cars) , the Koreans are moving away from that market, and you know the Americans will not be in that market. People need to realize that there is a market for cheaper cars, that aren't used. Yes they will have to give up quality, saftely, etc to get that price but they still get a new car.

 

As for Americans getting the three countries confuse, there is a lot of truth with that, as seen on this board. These countries/cultures are as different as Germany, Russia, and Britain.

 

Also they won't be using the Chery brand here, with the settlement agreement they have with GM.

Edited December 17, 2005 by 68Cougar

[robertlane]

Here's an article from CNN, which shows a photo of the car:

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic.../512170312/1148

 

Remember ONE thing about China - they believe that time is on their side and they are very perseverant. They will be in for the long haul. . .

[RichardJensen]

That's not the way I remember it at all. As I remember it, there was no disconnect between consumer demands and Detroit until the Arab oil embargo - aggravated in short order by burgeoning emmisions and safety regulations. Curiously, the imports never seemed half as vexed as Detroit when it came to handling the emissions and safety mandated regs.

 

...

 

If anything, the Chinese will benefit from the pioneering efforts of Japan (and later Korea) in establishing a quality reputation and wiping away old prejudices, and from the general tendency of Americans to confuse differences between the three countries.

I'll defer to your better knowledge of the subject. However, at the same time, the incredibly inept response of Detroit to the energy crises indicates management lacked (and had lacked for a long time) the ability to effectively meet rapidly changing consumer demands.

 

Also, regarding the second point, I see that as something of a two-edged sword: the less well known Asian makes may suffer from comparison/identification with what are likely to be incredibly low quality (and unsafe) offerings from China.

 

...

[DRODMOTORS]

Once the Japanese got their quality up (thanks to an American, that the US automakers ignored) they were entrenced into the market place.

 

Are you talking about Demming?

[01FOCI]

Does that guy in the cnn pic have a purse err man bag? What a metrosexual... haha

[retro-man]

I'll defer to your better knowledge of the subject. However, at the same time, the incredibly inept response of Detroit to the energy crises indicates management lacked (and had lacked for a long time) the ability to effectively meet rapidly changing consumer demands.

 

Also, regarding the second point, I see that as something of a two-edged sword: the less well known Asian makes may suffer from comparison/identification with what are likely to be incredibly low quality (and unsafe) offerings from China.

 

...

We are in agreement about Detroits inability to react to change. Somebody rightly pointed out that Detroit being caught with their pants down over plummeting SUV sales with the recent spike in gas prices is like deja-vu all over again. Either they are truly stupid and learned nothing from last time, or their addiction to the opiate of high margins (I see that junkie "Wall Street' lurking just around the corner) just led them to do things that they knew were bad.

 

I think the thing is, that in the 60's Detroit was basically calling the shots, with their annual model changes giving Mr. and Mrs. Jones everything they could want or imagine. And the cars were really gorgeous. They still are. The whole system was self-contained to a degree that is difficult to imagine today. What happened in the 70's is that change came abruptly from the outside - and no, Detroit wasn't prepared at all to handle that unfortunate new reality.

 

I will get flamed for sure for this (have been plenty of times in the past), but I question whether we should leave Detroit exposed to every good or evil force in the world. People cry "Protectionism" and claim that the auto industry will recede into some sort of Soviet drabness. We'll all be driving Trabants. As pointed out above, I just didn't see that back in the 60's when we were largely self-contained. The industry was vibrant, and competitive, and was for the most part giving American consumers what they wanted. Would it kill us to have some sort of tariff based on wage differentials, environmental and labor standards, and other factors such as health care to level the playing field? I don't think it would. On the contrary, the biggest threat I see to our wellbeing is the disappearance of a true middle class, and the rise of a hereditary aristocracy that is coming with leaving the market wide open to global forces.

 

Dependence on foreign oil is a more complicated issue. I would like to see a true national initiative akin to the space program (which continues to be a standard of comparison because it was such a magnificient achievement - you know, back when we were self-sufficient) to develop true energy independence for the U.S.. We could partially pay for it with those tariffs I mentioned above. Instead we have continuation of the status quo which, of course, only perpetuates the enrichment of an entrenched elite.

[robertlane]

It costs Geely only $3.50 per hour to make a car. . .the car will sell for under $10K in the U.S.

 

Another interesting note: There are more than 100 car makers in China.

 

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article...4/1002/BUSINESS